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NEPOOL Participants Meeting May 3, 2002 Boston, MA

NEPOOL Participants Meeting May 3, 2002 Boston, MA. Stephen G. Whitley Senior Vice President & COO. Discussion Points. System Operations Energy & Congestion Uplift Summer 2002 Capacity Update Drought Update May 1st Implementation of Patton Reforms SW CT Update Load Response Update

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NEPOOL Participants Meeting May 3, 2002 Boston, MA

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  1. NEPOOL Participants Meeting May 3, 2002 Boston, MA Stephen G. Whitley Senior Vice President & COO

  2. Discussion Points • System Operations • Energy & Congestion Uplift • Summer 2002 Capacity Update • Drought Update • May 1st Implementation of Patton Reforms • SW CT Update • Load Response Update • SMD Readiness • Back-up Detail

  3. System Operations

  4. April Operation’s Highlights • Boston & Hartford weather pattern: • Monthly temperatures above average with below normal precipitation. • A heat wave hit the Eastern States, including New England, on April 16, 17, & 18. April 17th recorded a temperature of 95°. • Earthquake - April 20, 0653 hours • USGS reports 5.1 magnitude quake occurred at 0653 • location 15 miles S.West of Plattsburg, NY • Peak Load • April 17, 2002, 18,438 MW, HE 15 • M/S#2, OP #4, Generator Posturing not implemented during April. • 5% Voltage Reduction test run on Friday, April 19. Results pending. • Simulated Manual Load Shed test held on April 30. • Requests for Reserve Sharing • 4 occurrences in April. • Excess Generation: • April 1 - 3.5 hours, April 12 - 1 hour, April 14 - 5.5 hours, April 15 -5 hours • April 22 - 4 hours

  5. April Operation’s Highlights • NPCC/PJM SAR Availability: • April 1 - 300 MW’s maximum due to NY Central East - 10 hours • April 3 - “ 8 hours • April 5 - “ 5 hours • April 10 - “ 24 hours • April 12 - “ 2 hours • April 13 - “ 12 hours • April 15 - “ 2 hours • April 16 - “ 16 hours • April 17 - “ 16 hours • April 25 - “ 3 hours • April 27 - “ 6 hours • Solar Magnetic Disturbances (SMD) • April 17 to 23 - Geological Survey of Canada or NERC SCIS- predict K-7 or K-8 magnitude storms of various duration. No actions were required due to system configuration and external tie line loading. • April 20, 23 - HQ reporting major SMD activity

  6. Energy and Congestion Uplift Reports

  7. Energy Uplift Comparison by Month2001 & 2002(January through March Energy Uplift Reduction $11.8 million)

  8. Congestion Uplift Comparison by Month 2001 & 2002 (January through March Congestion Uplift Reduction $18.0 Million)

  9. Cause of Congestion by Category

  10. Summer 2002 Capacity Update

  11. Summer 2002 Reference Case Capacity AssessmentWeek beginning June 1, 2002 - which has Least Operable Capacity Margin MW Projected Peak 24,200* Operating Reserve Required 1,700 Total Operable Cap. Required 25,900 Projected Capacity 27,510 Assumed Outages 2,600 Total Capacity 24,910 Operable Capacity Margin (990) *Peak Loads from the preliminary 2002 CELT Report.

  12. Summer 2002 June to September • Capacity margins, especially in high demand areas of SW CT and Boston, could be adversely affected by: • Delays in new generation • Maintenance over-runs • Increased number of forced outages • Transmission • Extended heat waves • Potential drought impact on Generation • Hydro facilities (5.8% of system) and generators that use water for cooling and emission purposes • Survey results indicate up to 1200 MW within New England could be affected if drought conditions persist

  13. Comparison of Summer 2001 & 2002

  14. New Generation • No new generating resources were added in April. • ISO New England continues to hold weekly conference calls with new generators to expedite interconnection, testing, and commercial operation. • Approximately 350 MW of new generation is expected to be commercial by June 1, 2002. Another 3,400 MW’s is expected during the Summer Period, and approximately 1,675 MW by the end of 2002.

  15. Drought Update

  16. Drought Survey - Status Update • Results of ISO Hydraulic Survey indicate Potential Reductions if: • Unit Type: Moderate (Drought) Severe • Fossil: 1,100 3,500 • Run-of-River: 50 100 • Pondage Hydro: 50 200 • ------------------------------------------------------------------- • Total Potential: 1,200 MW 3,800 MW • Current Outlook: • Recent precipitation is just under seasonal norms • Total rainfall still far below accumulated averages • Hydro-electric reservoirs at/near traditional levels • Water supply reservoirs still below traditional levels

  17. Drought Survey

  18. May 1, 2002 Implementation ofPatton Reforms

  19. May 1st Implementation of Patton Reforms • Market System Updated April 30th • Two problems noted and repaired • External Transaction Notification time returned to 90 minutes from 75 minutes • TMNSR/TMOR bids >$2.52 rolled over to May 1st if new bids were not entered • SPD/EMS • Two problems noted. Analysis & corrective action in progress. • TMOR and TMNSR 5 minute prices over $2.52 may have an LOC cascading error. • External contract price setters not going into SPD until 5-10 minutes after the hour starts. • Energy & Reserve prices are reviewed every hour and flagged as necessary

  20. SW CT Update

  21. SWCT Update • Connecticut Department of Public Utility Control(DPUC) Hearing • April 18, 2002, DPUC gave notice of public hearing to investigate “possible shortages in Southwest Connecticut during Summer periods of peak demand.” • Purpose is to “investigate and seek short-term remedies to ameliorate potential electricity shortages.” • DPUC requested written comment from selected, and interested, parties by May 1, 2002 • ISO submitted written comments on May 1, 2002. • DPUC will conduct a public hearing on May 8, 2002 • Steve Whitley will testify at hearing. • DPUC may conduct additional hearings and/or require additional written filings.

  22. SWCT Update • Connecticut Siting Council (CSC) Hearing on 345-kV Transmission • The CSC has scheduled hearings in late May and early June to review Connecticut Light & Power Co.’s application for a Certificate to construct a 20 mile 345-kV transmission line from Plumtree Substation (Bethel) to Norwalk Harbor Substation (Norwalk). • ISO has previously filed written testimony to the Siting Council and will provide oral testimony at these hearings about existence of problem in Southwestern Connecticut and need for transmission upgrades.

  23. SWCT Update • NEPOOL RFP to Commit Additional Load Reduction and/or Install New Peaking or Emergency Generation • Resources selected pursuant to the RFP would receive compensation provided by the FERC-approved 2002 Load Response Program and and a Supplemental Bid-Based Capability Payment. • On March 27, 2002, NEPOOL filed RFP with FERC to approve supplemental bid-based capability payment. • On April 12, 2002, FERC approved the NPC’s proposal “to allocate costs associated with the LRP for southwest Connecticut is approved, effective June 1, 2002 through September 30, 2002, subject to NEPOOL filing tariff sheets to reflect the proposed allocation methodology.” • ISO is near completion finalizing terms and conditions of contractual commitments with RFP awardees.

  24. Load Response Update

  25. Load Response Summits Held • Targeted New England load pockets -- SW Connecticut and Metro-Boston • Two separate events were held: • April 24 - Stamford, CT (in conjunction with SW CT press conference) • April 29 - Waltham, MA (before NE summer capacity press conference) • Partnered with state business associations • Total attendance for the two events was >200 persons • Most were commercial and industrial end-users

  26. Format and Objectives • Policy, provider, and end-user perspectives presented • Need for Load Response underscored as important components of reliable and competitive markets • Presentations and informal Q&A • Networking opportunity • GOAL: increase consumer awareness of load response and generate interest in participation

  27. Stamford CT Attorney General Blumenthal Kenneth Decko - CBIA Joe McGee - SACIA CT DPUC Chairman Don Downes CT DEP Director Chris James Jerry Luke - Grubb & Ellis (for IBM) RETX NGS CMEEC UI; CL&P Notable Participants & Speakers Waltham • MA DOER Commissioner David O’Connor • MA DTE Commissioner Paul Vasington • Bob Ruddock - AIM • NEDRI Policy Director Cowart • Mass. Water Resources Auth. • RETX • AES and TCPM • NSTAR and NGrid

  28. SMD Readiness

  29. SMD Readiness/Awareness Presentations for NEPOOL PC • Schedule of Topics • Today - FTR’s/ARR’s • June - Customer Business Implications • July - TBD • August - TBD • Other Subjects - Energy Market, etc.

  30. Back-Up Detail

  31. NEMA/BostonArea Detail

  32. Total Congestion Costs May 1999-January 2002 Complete Incomplete

  33. Transmission Congestion Data File Revisions Mitigated/Negotiated - Status • Current Status terms - Final, Preliminary or Projected • Future Status terms for Mitigated number: • Complete: for May 1999 through June 2001, months where negotiations with Participants who have contested mitigated prices regarding congestion compensation have been completed. • Incomplete: Negotiations with Participants who have contested mitigated prices on congestion compensation are incomplete. • Beginning with July 2001, a Participant must seek review of a mitigated bid within the time limits provided by Section 18.8.2 of Market Rule 18 for billing adjustment requests (see MRP 17.7.1).

  34. Estimated Unsettled Congestion UpliftMarch 2000 - June 2001

  35. New England Summer 2002Load Profiles

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