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Winter Update

Winter Update. David Salisbury GCF 25 th January 2010. Agenda. Headlines Background Process Types of interruption Chronology of events Interruption How cold was it ? Implications for the future Conclusions. Headlines. High levels of demand experienced 4 th Jan – 11 th Jan

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Winter Update

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  1. Winter Update David Salisbury GCF 25th January 2010

  2. Agenda • Headlines • Background • Process • Types of interruption • Chronology of events • Interruption • How cold was it ? • Implications for the future • Conclusions

  3. Headlines • High levels of demand experienced 4th Jan – 11th Jan • NTS record send out 8th Jan (463 mcm) • 4 Gas Balancing Alerts; two potential NGSE • Volume interruption invoked on NGGD networks (EM, NW and EA) • Good response from customers • Continuous review of network operation • All NGGD volume interruption load restored for 9/10; all NSL interruption restored 10/10

  4. Process Licence 1 in 20 Requirement Design System Demand Forecast Received in May each year Capacity Bookings Made through the OCS process Provide signals to NTS where capacity required Winter Operations Plan To flow within design capability and booked capacity

  5. Interruption • Types of Interruption • Test – for up to three times a year • Commercial – by shipper • Emergency • Constraint – localised constraint (NSL interruption) • Volume – high level constraint invoked when reach capacity triggers

  6. Chronology (4th – 11th Jan) • 4th Jan • very high demand levels forecast for 5th Jan • Forecast to exceed capacity triggers – volume interruption invoked in EM and NW • 5th Jan • Continued forecast high demand levels for 6th Jan; exceed capacity triggers – volume interruption in EM, NW • 6th Jan • Ditto for 7th Jan but capacity triggers in EA also breached • 7th Jan • Modelling data and review of network operation allow increased triggers for 8th Jan • Some volume interruption revoked • 8th Jan • Reducing demand allows all volume interruption to be revoked for 9th Jan • 9th Jan • Further reducing demand allows all NSL interruption revoked for 10th Jan

  7. Interruption Data

  8. East Anglia

  9. East Midlands

  10. NorthWest

  11. North London

  12. West Midlands

  13. How cold was it ? 7 of the 16 coldest days in the last 14 years occurred in w/b 4th Jan

  14. Implications for 2011 ? • Much reduced interruptible volume post October 2011 because of DN Interruption Reform • Interruptible load reduces to 0.4 mcm • Network reinforcements on track to be completed ahead of 2011 • Anticipated fewer NSLs in winter 2010 • Valuable data gathered for: • Future demand forecasts • Network capability

  15. Conclusions • Demand Forecast • Close to peak day ? • Valuable information for future forecasts • Interruption • Good customer response (some potential FTIs) • Network Operation • Networks have stood up well

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