Embedding a new way of working: Evidence base decision making and change in the MPS

1. Embedding a new way of working: Evidence base decision making and change in the MPS Corporate Development Metropolitan Police Service EBP Seminar, Cambridge 2013

2. Introduction: Betsy Stanko • Social science presence for over a decade inside one of the largest police services in the world; • Started by mapping onto the improvement in analytic services, in particular strategic products such as the London landscapes (crime, citizen, Met people and so forth), performance indicator development, performance analysis, bespoke research and evaluation • A vortex within that has gathered momentum and expertise – not only in methodology, but in the logic of how to map this onto strategy and operations

3. The context

4. What we will do in this session… • Take people through the significant uplift in activity to respond to the challenges of becoming a more professional police service; • Embedded strategic approaches using an evidence based approach in OneMet Strategy, Performance meetings (corporate and business group), Crime Fighting Strategy, Met Tasking and Crime • Embedded within our leadership principles an expectation that senior leaders will know about and use evidence based work in their decision making

5. Liam Public Confidence in the MPS: an evidence-based approach Liam Fenn Research Analyst Metropolitan Police Service

6. Public Confidence: why it (still) matters • In a democratic society, people expect, and have a right to expect, that the police will be trustworthy, competent and ethical, focused on the needs of local people; • Evidence shows that people who have confidence in the police and regard them as legitimate, are more likely to be satisfied with individual encounters, defer to police authority and assist police investigations (Stanko and Bradford 2009) Question marks over NSY…

7. Where we are … and where we are trying to go… • The Mayor has set us an ambitious target to improve confidence by 20%: September 2012 62% of Londoners think the police do a good job in the local area (CSEW) MPS to achieve 75% by 2016 But our starting point isn't all bleak: Out of every ten people: 6 think we do a good or excellent job 3 think we do a fair job only 1 thinks we do a poor job MPS PAS

8. Our evidence base: how do we achieve the 20% improvement? • Public Attitude Survey • Face to face interviews • 12, 800 Londoners per year allowing representative analysis at a borough level • Some challenges… • Only 56% think we do well at providing a visible presence • Just 45% of Londoners feel informed • Those who have contact are less confident • Fair treatment – 7% decline The MPS Confidence Model – 'beyond measuring'

9. 'Natural Experiments': Testing the effect of major events on public opinion Student Demonstrations 2010 Olympics London 2012 August Riots 2011 • Post-event interviewing associated with sig. higher confidence • Suggests collective spirit, shared values and good spirited policing had a positive impact on public attitudes. • How do we turn such findings into actionable activities? • 75% of respondents reported no change in opinion. Of 25% that did, half more positive, half more negative. • Of interest, preceding the disorder, confidence substantially lower in boroughs hit hardest by the disorder. • Lack of moral alignment? Anti-police riots, disorder and looting are extreme forms of lack of willingness to cooperate and readiness to break the law • Demonstrations created a 'natural experiment' allowing analysis of public perceptions before and after the event • Post-event interviewing associated with sig. higher scores on all key drivers of confidence

10. 'Other experiments': are police newsletters effective? • Overview • Experiment to test the impact of newsletters on public perceptions of the police • Newsletters design based on best-practice • Disseminated to every household in three test wards (total of 17,117 newsletters). • Impact measured using SN Survey (7 wards), allowing comparison between control and test wards before and after distribution • Key Findings • Statistically sig. improvements in a number of key areas in test wards, not seen in control wards: • Levels of feeling informed • Perceptions of the police • Perceptions of local crime and disorder • Confidence in police effectiveness • The challenge • If done well, evidence suggests #newsletterswork; over half of Londoners don’t feel informed and tell us they want to receive newsletters/leaflets from us • So how do we convince local policing teams to trust this?

11. Are we capitalising on our engagement opportunities? "You [the police] spend the first hour with a witness apologising for every police encounter they have ever had" MPS Trident Officer "the police told her they would protect her and she fell for it. Word got out and the community knew that she went to the police – she could have got killed" Youth Worker • Developing the evidence base – 51% of victims of shootings unwilling to engage with officers • What can we do better? Furthering understanding of 'what works' - Preventative education scheme RCT – current delivery uncoordinated and not evidence based. - RCT testing officer attitudes toward stop and search, Behavioural Detection Training

12. Concluding remarks • MPS – must be more proactive in its service delivery, rather than focusing efforts on the performance measure. Confidence is influenced by 'what the police do'. • Peels principles hold true –the need for the officers to act impartially, with courtesy and the spirit of self-sacrifice must be embedded within our training. • London one of the most diverse cities in the world – but regardless of age, ethnicity, class, Londoners want a service that represents them and shares their values - police are the public and the public are the police. • Londoners infer the strength of formal social controls from the strength of informal social controls (Jackson and Bradford 2009). • Where this alignment does not exist, legitimacy is undermined (as demonstrated by riot analysis). • The real challenge starts now…

13. ebp@met.police.uk