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National Lodging Market Projections and Performance Analysis

This report provides an analysis of the national lodging market, including performance indicators, supply and demand projections, and market trends. It also includes specific data for the top 25 markets, New England, suburban Boston, and Boston/Cambridge.

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National Lodging Market Projections and Performance Analysis

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  1. Rachel J. Roginsky, ISHC Pinnacle Advisory Group 76 Canal Street Boston, MA 02114 Telephone: 617-722-9916 Fax: 617-722-9917 rroginsky@pinnacle-advisory.com Outlook 2004 Pinnacle Realty Investments Pinnacle Advisory Group

  2. National Lodging Market Top 25 Markets – 2002 Total U.S. Market Through April 2003 National Projections

  3. National Lodging Market Top 25 Markets – 2002

  4. Top 25 MarketsRoom Supply Percent Change - 2002 INDUSTRY AVERAGE 1.8 % Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

  5. Top 25 MarketsADR Percent Change - 2002 INDUSTRY AVERAGE -1.5 % Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

  6. Top 25 MarketsOccupancy 2002 INDUSTRY AVERAGE 59.2 % Source: Smith Travel Research

  7. Top 25 Markets RevPAR 2002 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

  8. National Lodging Market Total U.S. Market Through April 2003

  9. Total United StatesRoom Supply/Demand Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average To April 2003 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

  10. Total United StatesOccupancy and ADRTwelve Month Moving Average To Apr 2003 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

  11. Total United StatesKey Performance Indicators Percent ChangeTwelve Months Ending April Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

  12. Chain ScalesOccupancy/ADR Percent ChangeTwelve Months Ended April 2003 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

  13. National Lodging Market National Projections

  14. U.S. Lodging Outlook * Supply Growth Significantly Lower * Demand Lags, Then Recovers * Occupancy Flat * Pressure on Room Rates * Slow RevPAR Growth * Potential Threat – War/Terrorism

  15. Total United StatesSupply/Demand Percent Change1996 – 2003P Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

  16. Total United StatesOccupancy Percent1996 – 2003P Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

  17. Total United StatesAverage Daily Rate1996 – 2003P Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

  18. Total United StatesRevPAR Percent Change1996 – 2003P Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

  19. New England Lodging Market

  20. New England Occupancy - 2002 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

  21. New England Average Daily Rate – 2002 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

  22. New England RevPAR – 2002 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

  23. New England Change in Performance - 2002 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

  24. New England Change in Performance – YTD June 2003 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

  25. Suburban Boston Lodging Market Statistics Projections

  26. Suburban Boston Lodging Market Statistics

  27. Suburban Boston Statistics

  28. Suburban Boston Occupancy 1995-2002 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

  29. Suburban Boston Average Room Rate 1995 - 2002 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

  30. Suburban Boston RevPAR 1995 - 2002 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

  31. Suburban Boston Lodging Supply 1995 - 2002 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

  32. Suburban Boston Occupancy YTD June 2001 - 2003 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

  33. Suburban Boston Average Daily Rate YTD 2001 - 2003 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

  34. Suburban Boston RevPARYTD 2001 - 2003 Source: Smith Travel Research / Pinnacle Advisory Group

  35. Suburban Boston Lodging Market Projections

  36. Suburban Boston 2003 • Continued Lack of Overflow from Boston • Major Demand Generators Report only limited increases in demand • Shorter Booking Window • New Supply Less but Still a Factor • Pent-up demand

  37. Pinnacle ProjectionsSuburban Boston 2003

  38. Suburban Boston 2004 • Stronger Convention Year for Boston • Improving economy • Limited New Supply • Stable Geopolitical Situation • Weak Dollar

  39. Pinnacle ProjectionsSuburban Boston 2004

  40. Boston / Cambridge Lodging Market Statistics New Supply Demand Trends Projections

  41. Boston / Cambridge Lodging Market Statistics

  42. Boston / Cambridge Occupancy 1989 – 2002 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

  43. Boston / Cambridge Average Room Rate 1989-2002 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

  44. Boston / Cambridge RevPAR 1989-2002 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

  45. Boston / Cambridge Lodging Supply 1989 - 2002 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

  46. Boston / Cambridge Occupancy YTD June 2001-2003 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

  47. Boston / Cambridge Average Room Rate YTD June 2001-2003 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

  48. Boston / Cambridge RevPARYTD June 2001-2003 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

  49. Boston / Cambridge Change in RevPAR 1996 – YTD June 2003 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

  50. Boston / Cambridge Change in Performance By Market Area - 2002 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

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