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Phase 5 Watershed Model Riverine Water Quality Calibration Update

Phase 5 Watershed Model Riverine Water Quality Calibration Update. Modeling Subcommittee Quarterly Review 4/4/2006. Calibration of River Nutrients. Process Parameter Files. Model Structure Files. Optimization Routine. Two Calibration Strategies. PEST Complex Long run times

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Phase 5 Watershed Model Riverine Water Quality Calibration Update

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  1. Phase 5 Watershed ModelRiverine Water QualityCalibration Update Modeling Subcommittee Quarterly Review 4/4/2006

  2. Calibration of River Nutrients • Process • Parameter • Files • Model Structure • Files Optimization Routine

  3. Two Calibration Strategies • PEST • Complex • Long run times • Has been used successfully with HSPF in other applications • Rule-Based Optimization • Complex • Runs quickly • Similar to successful flow and temperature calibrations in phase 5

  4. PEST Process Parameter Files • Determine the sensitivity of each parameter to the agreement of simulated and observed • Determine the quickest route to the best simulation • Take a large step in that direction

  5. PEST Status • Runs • Calculates matrix of sensitivities and updates parameters • Won’t be useful globally within the month • Angelica on leave • Would have to take all CBP modeling computer resources starting now

  6. Uncalibrated

  7. Modification by PEST

  8. Rule-Based Optimization Process Parameter Files • Assume the sensitivity of each parameter to the agreement of simulated and observed • Determine the quickest route to the best simulation • Take a small step in that direction

  9. Rule-Based River Calibration Method • Consistent with recommendations of STAC review team • Based on matching observed and simulated CFDs for paired data

  10. Settle less Refractory Don’t Change ammonia scour and release Settle more phytoplankton Settle more phytoplankton Turn up denitrification

  11. Rule-Based Optimization Status Process Parameter Files • Currently working on runs that calculate normal sensitivity ranges for use in this process • Older sensitivities were calculated with poor Edge-of-Field and gave mixed results

  12. Uncalibrated

  13. Calibrated

  14. Phase 4.3

  15. Uncalibrated

  16. Calibrated

  17. Phase 4.3

  18. Uncalibrated

  19. Calibrated

  20. Phase 4.3

  21. Uncalibrated

  22. Calibrated

  23. Phase 4.3

  24. Uncalibrated

  25. Calibrated

  26. Phase 4.3

  27. Uncalibrated

  28. Calibrated

  29. Phase 4.3

  30. Uncalibrated

  31. Calibrated

  32. Phase 4.3

  33. Uncalibrated

  34. Calibrated

  35. Phase 4.3

  36. Uncalibrated

  37. Calibrated

  38. Phase 4.3

  39. Status of River Calibration • Calibration method improves simulation • Results in the ballpark of phase 4 • Need revised rules to complete calibration

  40. Extension to 8/2005Data Sources • Rain, Temperature, PET • Jeff Raffensperger • Solar Radiation, Cloud Cover, Dewpoint, Wind Speed • Ping Wang • Atmospheric Deposition • Extended model of Grimm/Lynch

  41. Extension to 8/2005Data Sources • Point Sources • Ning Zhou • Diversions • Extended work from USGS • Land Use • Extrapolated from 2002

  42. Susquehanna

  43. Susquehanna

  44. Potomac

  45. Potomac

  46. James

  47. James

  48. Rappahannock

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