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Guadalupe Watershed Model Year 2 update

Study on source, release, transport of sediment, Hg, PCBs from watershed to Bay. Improve model accuracy for management actions. Next steps involve sediment, Hg, PCB modeling.

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Guadalupe Watershed Model Year 2 update

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  1. Item #7 Guadalupe Watershed ModelYear 2 update Presentation to SPLWG May 27, 2009 Michelle Lent, John Oram, Lester McKee

  2. Item #7 • Basic Objective (revised): • To understand the source, release, and transport of suspended sediment, Hg and PCBs from a large, mixed land use watershed to San Francisco Bay • Timeline: • Year 1 (2008): Hydrologic model • Year 2 (2009): Sediment and contaminants model • Details: • Establish model input and calibration parameters to assist in developing other local watershed models • Improve accuracy of mercury and PCB load calculations • Addresses • STLS Q1 (Impairment), Q2 (loads), Q3 (Trends), Q4 (Support for management actions) • Modeling Strategy Q3 (Small tributary loads)

  3. Item #7 Re-cap of last time • Model Overview & Set-up • Software & data sets used • Delineation & segmentation • Model Calibration/Validation • Split data into two sets (2000-05, 2006-07) • Summary of Model Performance • Captures general watershed hydrology & storm events • Needs improvement for • Annual flow volume and base flow • Storm event peak flow and timing • Model Improvement Plan • Extend calibration period • Add urban irrigation • Revise imperviousness estimates • Re-evaluate meteorological and calibration segmentation • Suggestion from Workgroup • Shift to spatial calibration/validation split • -Calibrate upstream, validate downstream

  4. Item #7 Revised calibration&validation sites: Lower Guadalupe River Los Gatos Creek Canoas Creek Ross Creek Upper Guadalupe River Guadalupe Creek

  5. Item #7 Extended simulation period

  6. Item #7 Added urban irrigation

  7. E.I.A. = 0.15*(T.I.A.)1.14 (Alley and Veenhuis, 1983) Item #7 Revised imperviousness estimates

  8. Item #7 Adjusted meteorological segmentation

  9. Item #7 Re-evaluated calibration parameters & model parameterization 7 model segments 12 model segments

  10. Item #7 Example result of model revisionsRoss Creek flow with Vasona & Alamitos precipitation

  11. Item #7 Compare model versions - Annual flow volumes for Guadalupe River Old version (v1) New version (v2)

  12. Item #7 Compare model versions -Observed versus simulated daily flow for Guadalupe River Old version (v1): WY2003-2007 New version (v2): WY1995-2007

  13. Item #7 Compare model versions - Hourly flow for Guadalupe River

  14. Item #7 Sediment model development: Data needs for parameterization & calibration • Target sediment loading rates Sediment production rates estimated for land use classes (tonnes/km2/yr) Apply sediment delivery ratio “edge of stream” inputs D.R. = 0.418*Area-0.135 - 0.127 • Particle Size Distribution Soil Texture map Soil Texture % clay/silt/sand Fractionation ratio Particle size distribution map

  15. Item #7 Next time, calibrated SSC…

  16. Item #7 Next Steps • Calibrate sediment portion of model • Extend model to Hg and PCBs • Calibrate contaminant portion of model Deliverable Draft report by November SPLWG meeting

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