How Can We Implement Interdisciplinary Earth System Science on the Third Pole?

1. Mountain Research Initiative How Can We Implement Interdisciplinary Earth System Science on the Third Pole? Greg Greenwood Executive Director, Mountain Research Initiative University of Bern, Switzerland green@giub.unibe.ch

2. What is MRI? • http://mri.scnatweb.ch • Origins in IGBP/IHDP • Endorsements: MAB, GTOS, GLOBAL LAND PROJECT of the ESSP • Supported by Swiss NSF as expression of Swiss foreign and scientific policy • Offices at University of Bern and University of Lausanne

3. Outline • The Conceptual Framework of the Global Land Project • Applying the GLP Framework to the Third Pole Environment Project of CAS • Guidance Provided by the GLP Framework for Implementation • How Geographic Information Systems Could Support a TP-wide Coupled Human-Earth System Project • Different Scientific Traditions and Their Interlocked Perspectives

4. facts glochamore • Funded under EU Framework Programme 6 • November 2003 to October 2005 (2 years) • Consortium: 13 European, 1 Indian partner • Scientific project management: MRI • Coordination Office: University of Vienna

5. glochamoreresearch strategy - Main Headings • Climate • Land Use Change • Cyrosphere • Hydrologic Systems • Ecosystem Function • Biodiversity and Ecosystem Structure • Hazards • Pests and Diseases • Economies • Institutions Disciplines are important in academia, but the reality on the ground is a COUPLED HUMAN-EARTH SYSTEM

6. Sustainability • The goal of GLP is therefore: • to measure, model and understand the coupled human-environmental system. • This goal is part of broader efforts to understand changes in the interaction between people and their environments, and the ways these have affected, and may yet affect, the sustainability of the Earth System. Changes in coupled human-environmental systems affect the cycling of energy, water, elements and biota at the global level, and global-level changes in political economy, such as international treaties and market liberalization, affect decisions about resources at local and regional levels. GLP Science Plan 2005 A core project of IGBP and IHDP Part of the Earth System Science Partnership http://www.globallandproject.org/

7. http://www.globallandproject.org/

8. Theme 1: Dynamics of Land Systems • 1.1: How Do Globalisation and Population Change Affect • Regional and Local Land Use Decisions and Practices?

9. Theme 1: Dynamics of Land Systems • 1.2: How Do Changes in Land Management Decisions and • Practices Affect Biogeochemistry, Biodiversity, Biophysical • Properties and Disturbance Regimes of • Terrestrial and Freshwater Ecosytems?

10. Theme 1: Dynamics of Land Systems • 1.3: How Do the Atmospheric, Biogeochemical and Biophysical • Dimensions of Global Change Affect Ecosystem Structure • and Function?

11. Theme 2: Consequences of Land System Change • 2.1: What are the Critical Feedbacks to the Coupled Earth • System from Ecosystem Changes?

12. Theme 2: Consequences of Land System Change • 2.2: How Do Changes in Ecosystem Structure and Functioning • Affect the Delivery of Ecosystem Services?

13. Theme 2: Consequences of Land System Change • 2.3: How are Ecosystem Services Linked to Human Well-being?

14. Theme 2: Consequences of Land System Change • 2.4: How Do People Respond at Various Scales and in Different • Contexts to Changes in Ecosystem Service Provision?

15. Theme 2: Consequences of Land System Change • Human-Environment Interaction

16. Time 1 Time 2 Theme 3: Integrating Analysis and Modelling for Land Sustainability How the System Evolves over Time

17. path dependency: do certain trajectories eliminate options? Time 1 Time 2i Time 2j ? Theme 3: Integrating Analysis and Modelling for Land Sustainability 3.1 What are the Critical Pathways of Change in Land Systems?

18. Bigger/Different Shock Shock (1.1,1.3) Recovery Recovery Transition to New State • 3.2: How Do the Vulnerability and Resilience of Land Systems to • Hazards and Disturbances Vary in Response to Changes in • Human–Environment Interactions? <-desert Productivity forest -> ? Human-Environment Interaction (2.2,2.3,2.4,1.2) Time Theme 3: Integrating Analysis and Modelling for Land Sustainability

19. 3.3: Which Institutions Enhance Decision Making and Governance • for the Sustainability of Land Systems? <-desert Productivity forest -> Time Theme 3: Integrating Analysis and Modelling for Land Sustainability

20. How can we adapt the GLP approach to the Third Pole?

21. Past Now Question 1: What environmental and ecological changes have occurred on different time scales in the past, and how are these changes driven?

22. Earth System (global) Circulation, forcings Land Systems (Third Pole) Pollution Social Systems Population Political/Institutional Regimes Culture Flowing & Standing Water Cryosphere Resource Use & Management Ecosystem Services & Hazards Decision Making Ecosystems Biogeochemistry Biodiversity Vegetation Soil Livelihood Groups Earth System T2.1 T1.3 T1.1 Land Systems Social Systems Population Social/Economic structure Political/Institutional Regimes Culture Technology Ecological Systems Biogeochemistry Biodiversity Water Air Soil T1.2 T2.2 Land Use & Management Decision Making Ecosystem Services T2.3 T2.4 T3.1 Critical pathways of change T3.2 Vulnerability and resilience of land systems T3.3 Effective governance for sustainability TPE Science questions have forced further specification within all major parts of the the general GLP figure

23. Circulation, forcings Flowing & Standing Water Question 2: What are the characteristics of water and energy cycles, what are their main components, and what is their relationship to the Indian monsoon and westerlies? Earth System (global) Land Systems (Third Pole) Pollution Social Systems Population Political/Institutional Regimes Culture Cryosphere Resource Use & Management Ecosystem Services & Hazards Decision Making Ecosystems Biogeochemistry Biodiversity Vegetation Soil Livelihood Groups

24. Question 3: How will ecosystems change under global warming, especially at high elevations? Earth System (global) Circulation, forcings Land Systems (Third Pole) Pollution Social Systems Population Political/Institutional Regimes Culture Flowing & Standing Water Cryosphere Resource Use & Management Ecosystem Services & Hazards Decision Making Ecosystems Biogeochemistry Biodiversity Vegetation Soil Livelihood Groups

25. Question 4. What is the status of glaciers on the Third Pole, and how will glacial retreat and mass balance changes affect the water and energy cycle and its components? What are their environmental impacts? Earth System (global) Circulation, forcings Land Systems (Third Pole) Pollution Social Systems Population Political/Institutional Regimes Culture Flowing & Standing Water Cryosphere Resource Use & Management Ecosystem Services & Hazards Decision Making Ecosystems Biogeochemistry Biodiversity Vegetation Soil Livelihood Groups

26. Question 5. What is the impact of anthropogenic output? Earth System (global) Circulation, forcings Land Systems (Third Pole) Pollution Social Systems Population Political/Institutional Regimes Culture Flowing & Standing Water Cryosphere Resource Use & Management Ecosystem Services & Hazards Decision Making Ecosystems Biogeochemistry Biodiversity Vegetation Soil Livelihood Groups

27. Question 6. What is the most appropriate way to adapt to current environmental changes in the Third Pole region? Earth System (global) Circulation, forcings Land Systems (Third Pole) Pollution Social Systems Population Political/Institutional Regimes Culture Flowing & Standing Water Cryosphere Resource Use & Management Ecosystem Services & Hazards Decision Making Ecosystems Biogeochemistry Biodiversity Vegetation Soil Livelihood Groups

28. Question 6a. What are the environmental changes (as they affect people=services and hazards)? Earth System (global) Circulation, forcings Land Systems (Third Pole) Pollution Social Systems Population Political/Institutional Regimes Culture Flowing & Standing Water Cryosphere Resource Use & Management Ecosystem Services & Hazards Decision Making Ecosystems Biogeochemistry Biodiversity Vegetation Soil Livelihood Groups

29. Question 6b. What livelihood groups exist on the Third Pole? What is their development trajectory? Earth System (global) Circulation, forcings Land Systems (Third Pole) Pollution Social Systems Population Political/Institutional Regimes Culture Flowing & Standing Water Cryosphere Resource Use & Management Ecosystem Services & Hazards Decision Making Ecosystems Biogeochemistry Biodiversity Vegetation Soil Livelihood Groups

30. Question 6c. What are the vulnerability pathways (i.e. how environmental changes impact the well-being of different livelihood groups)? Earth System (global) Circulation, forcings Land Systems (Third Pole) Pollution Social Systems Population Political/Institutional Regimes Culture Flowing & Standing Water Cryosphere Resource Use & Management Ecosystem Services & Hazards Decision Making Ecosystems Biogeochemistry Biodiversity Vegetation Soil Livelihood Groups

31. Question 6d. What are the options for addressing vulnerability? What are the trade-offs (economic, social and culture) associated with these options? Earth System (global) Circulation, forcings Land Systems (Third Pole) Pollution Social Systems Population Political/Institutional Regimes Culture Flowing & Standing Water Cryosphere Resource Use & Management Ecosystem Services & Hazards Decision Making Ecosystems Biogeochemistry Biodiversity Vegetation Soil Livelihood Groups

32. T3.1 Critical pathways of change T3.2 Vulnerability and resilience of land systems T3.3 Effective governance for sustainability What’s missing? -- Agency, and System Evolution Earth System (global) Circulation, forcings Land Systems (Third Pole) Pollution Social Systems Population Political/Institutional Regimes Culture Flowing & Standing Water Cryosphere Resource Use & Management Ecosystem Services & Hazards Decision Making Ecosystems Biogeochemistry Biodiversity Vegetation Soil Livelihood Groups

33. How does one actually implement this? Earth System (global) Circulation, forcings Land Systems (Third Pole) Pollution Social Systems Population Political/Institutional Regimes Culture Flowing & Standing Water Cryosphere Resource Use & Management Ecosystem Services & Hazards Decision Making Ecosystems Biogeochemistry Biodiversity Vegetation Soil Livelihood Groups

34. “Putting names to fluxes”... Charles J. Vörösmarty 2006

35. Whose names go in the boxes? Earth System Drivers: Prof. ?? Feedbacks to Earth System Ecosystem Services: Prof. ?? Earth System (global) Impacts of use Circulation, forcings Nature of the Social System Land Systems (Third Pole) Ecosystem Conditions: Prof. ?? Pollution Social Systems Population Political/Institutional Regimes Culture Flowing & Standing Water Cryosphere Decision Making Processes: Prof. ?? Resource Use & Management Ecosystem Services & Hazards Decision Making Ecosystems Biogeochemistry Biodiversity Vegetation Soil Livelihood Groups Resource Benefits: Prof. ?? Current Resource Use: Prof. ?? A human resources project..

36. from M. Menenti 2010 at what scale ?

37. from M. Menenti 2010 We could do this at range or basin scale..who does what where? Chang Tang Kun Lun Tian Shan Sanjiangyuan Pamir Hengduan Karakorum Ladakh Yarlung Kosi

38. from M. Menenti 2010 OR could we do this...over the entire Third Pole? (GLP and GIS as two ways of addressing the same object.) GIS as a data management and modeling element

39. Atmospheric deposition is part of the Earth System impinging on the Land System. Land use is a central characteristic of Land Use & Management Hydrologic processes fall within Ecological Systems GLP scheme as a spatial model with coverages as inputs and as modeled outputs. courtesy USGS: http://nh.water.usgs.gov/projects/sparrow/input.htm

40. Meteorological and climatic “forcings”: precip, temp, radiation Hydrology:e.g., soil water (measured), stream discharge (modeled) What kinds of data layers and models does GLP suggest? Downstream WATER

41. Predicting Discharge from Third Pole: CEOP-AEGIS (Immerzeel et al. 2010 Science) N.B. River Basin Scale: whose water?? from M. Menenti 2010

42. modeled aspects of the ecological system and precursors of ecosystem services earth system drivers characteristics of the ecological system D’Urso 2010

43. Example of forcing data D’Urso 2010

44. Example of output data D’Urso 2010

45. Example of predicted precursor of an ecosystem service D’Urso 2010

46. What kinds of data layers does GLP suggest re: localecosystem services? composition biomass life form Vegetation vegetation important for E/T but also for biodiversity, for carbon sequestration, for NTFP, for forage, wood...

47. Example of vegetation data Ni 2000

48. What kinds of data layers does GLP suggest? Vegetation Land use

49. Example of 1:100’000 land use data Wang et al. 2008

50. Meteorological and climatic “forcings”: precip, temp, radiation It appears that the coupled human-earth system could be expressed in GIS --> two questions.. Vegetation Hydrology: soil water, stream discharge Land use