Matthew J West On behalf of Space Pole

1. Space Weather Services at Space Pole Matthew J West On behalf of Space Pole STAC EUMETNET, Apr, 2013

2. Space Pole Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy Royal Observatory of Belgium Royal Meteorological Institute Space Pole has three research institutes and collaborates with other Belgian and European institutes to provide space weather products

3. Space Pole Space Weather Tools & Products Space Pole have several groups researching, reporting and developing tools to study the Sun and space weather. I will focus on the tools we have that may be of interest to you. These Include: PROBA2 Science Center – Operates the PROBA2 solar satellite. Interactive Flare Tool SoFAST - Automated Flare Detection Interactive Solar map AFFECTS - Advanced Forecast For Ensuring communications Through Space - European FP7 project STAFF – Solar Timelines viewer (for AFFECTS). Solar Demon – Dimming and EUV wave Monitor (for AFFECTS). CME arrival alert (for AFFECTS). CME Speed Calculator Solar Weather Browser Cactus – CME Tracking System jhelioviewer Humain – Radio-astronomy station Regional SDO Data Archive USET – Ground based Solar Telescope International Sunspot Number – Record and Maintain K-LOGIC - Local Geomagnetic Activity Nowcast Virtual Space Weather Modelling Centre SAA Coordination Centre Space Weather Forecasting COMESEP – Forecasting Storms

4. PROBA2 • Microsatellite in sun-synchronous orbit • Launched on November 2, 2009 • 725 km altitude ☀ Period: ≈100 min • Commanding and data processing at P2SC (ROB, Brussels).

5. Instruments – LYRA - SWAP LYRA SWAP SWAP (Sun Watcher using Active Pixel System Detector and Image Processing)– An EUV imager Observes the Suns lower atmosphere (≈1 MK) LYRA (Lyman Alpha Radiometer) – X and UV photometer (4 passbands) Multi-wavelength analysis of flares Short time-scale events, especially quasi-period pulsations Variability of long term solar spectral irradiance

6. SWAP – showing the Suns Variability Solar Activity as observed by SWAP and LYRA 13th Jun 2012, at 11:29 UT, an M1.2 flare occurred in AR11504 Source Region seen by SWAP Power recorded by LYRA

7. Tools Used With PROBA2 (& Future Missions)

8. Interactive Flare Tool PROBA2 data is used in our Interactive Flare Tool. A product produced to help forecasters locating the origin on Flares or other activity. The user clicks on the light curve and the source and details are highlighted.

9. Interactive Solar Map Provides flaring stats and probabilities per AR http://sidc.oma.be/html /Solarmap.html

10. SoFAST: Automated Flare Detection Tool -Uses SWAP EUV imager (with a view to be used with future missions). -It will monitor, record and warn of EUV flares detected. (http://www.sidc.be/sofast) Typical one day output

11. AFFECTS

12. AFFECTS • A space research project under the 7th Framework Programme of the European Union. • AFFECTS will provide early space weather warnings to protect communication systems.     • The following institutions are involved in AFFECTS:

13. STAFF - Solar Timelines viewer

14. STAFF - Solar Timelines viewer http://www.staff.oma.be/

15. Solar Demon - Dimming & EUV wave Monitor for SDO-AIA What? - Solar Demon is a tool to automatically detect and characterize EUV waves and dimmings Why? - Aid space weather applications by providing extra information on a front side CME, and gain better understanding of underlying physical mechanisms. How? - Automatically analyzing SDO/AIA 211Å quick-look images When? - Solar Demon will run in near real-time at the fall of 2013 (http://solardemon.oma.be) October 23, 2012. Dimming mask created from base difference image

16. Solar Demon -example events Solar Demon interface EUV Wave Characteristics. 09/03/12 Complex dimming event. 07/03/12. Left: off-disc event detected on October 28, 2012. Center: event detected on March 9, 2012. Right: small event detected on October 23, 2012

17. Machine readable CME arrivalalert CME heading towards Earth: E-mail containing XML file is sent Currently in test phase Provides input for AFFECTS Early Warning Message for GNSS users (http://swaciwebdevelop.dlr.de/early-warning-gnss/) Contains: Measured: CME departure time, principle angle, coronagraph Estimated: CME arrival time, probability of arrival at Earth, max K value

18. Solar & Space Weather Tools

19. CACTus - Computer Aided CME Tracking http://www.sidc.be/cactus Products

20. CACTus – CME catalogs http://www.sidc.be/cactus • SOHO-LASCO: since 04/1997 • STEREO/COR2 A and B: since 03/2007 • Real-time: based on LASCO Quick-look; • STEREO data has a latency of 3 days.

21. CME Speed Calculator

22. Solar Weather Browser http://www.sidc.be/swb

23. jhelioviewer • We develop the jhelioviewer program. – Visualization program for Solar image data. • Creates compressed solar images, allowing them to be quickly and easily viewed. • Used to create movies and combine (overlay solar images).

24. Instruments and Data We Host at Space Pole

25. USET Solar Telescope • Uccle Solar Equatorial Table (USET) has three telescopes to look at the solar surface and lower atmosphere: • White-light • H-alpha • Ca II K-images Data is available via website: www.sidc.be/uset/ Data will be available via the SODA (SOTERIA VSO) Info: frederic.clette@oma.be

26. The International Sunspot Number (ISSN) • USET in collaboration with other stations world wide helps produce: • Provisional SSN. • Definitive SSN. • Daily sunspot index. • SSN predictions. • The Sunspot Number provides one of the longest running data series and is used for looking at long-term trends in solar activity.

27. International Sunspot Number Medium-term forecast of smoothed ISN Info: Ronald.Vanderlinden@oma.be

28. Humain Radioastronomy Station • Project started in 2008, in the framework of the Solar-Terrestrial Center of Excellence. • Provides near real-time monitoring of solar activity using Two kinds of instruments: • Radiospectrographs: observation of radio bursts linked to flares and CMEs • Radiometers: Single frequency flux monitoring for flares and daily irradiance variation (e.g.: F10.7cm) • Provides radio data for the SIDC forecasts. • Website: http://sidc.be/humain • Info: Christophe.marque@oma.be Type II burst

29. SDO data archive at ROB • Download images from ROB: use same routines but specify site=‘rob’ IDL> list=vso_search('1-aug-2010 00:00','1-aug-2010 00:02', inst='hmi’, site=‘rob’) IDL> a=vso_get(list[6:7]) • http://wissdom.oma.be • latest movies: www.sidc.be • Info: verodelo@oma.be

30. Space Weather Forecasting & Nowcasting

31. K-LOGIC - Local Geomagnetic Activity Nowcast • Service Output: • K index value - data files (ASCII), plots • Quality Flag (QF) – data acquisition and processing quality assessment • Alerts – web (verbose & colour code), email • Service Type: • Nowcast: update – every 60 min • Nowcast: latency less than 3 min Service Selection Alert (web based) K index value Registration Quality Flag http://swans.meteo.be/geomagnetism

32. COMESEP Project ROB is in charge of WP 6:SPACE WEATHER ALERT SYSTEM • Establish an operational European Space Weather Alert system to forecast SEP radiation storms and magnetic storms. • Go beyond individual detection tools and models, by integrating their outputs into an automated start-to-end-service system. • Disseminate the alerts and forecasts to the space weather vulnerable industries and other users using existing media on European level. The COMESEP Project: Forecasting Geomagnetic Storms and Solar Energetic Particle Events Input: Interchangeable Solar models. Output: Forecasts and alerts. http://www.comesep.eu/

33. The ESA Virtual Space Weather Modelling Centre (VSWMC) • COMESEP project (under development) • To develop an open end-to-end (from Sun to Earth) space weather modelling system (“Virtual SW Modelling Centre”). • Combine ("couple") various space weather models in an integrated tool,

34. Space Situational Awareness (SSA) coordination Centre • We are part of the ESA SSA Program • Host expert service centers for ESA • Solar Physics input from ROB • Radiation input from BIRA • We host the SSA Coordination Centre

35. What do we forecast? • Flares: • Large and sudden release of energy in the solar atmosphere • Several classes of flares: C, M and X-flares • Estimate probability: <50% C, >50% C, >50% M, >50% X-flares • K-index: • Overall geomagnetic activity • Forecast over 3 days in intervals of 3 hours • Ranges from 0 to 9 • Daily A-index value is distributed to the wider communitee • Proton events • F10.7: • Solar radio flux at 10.7cm • Forecast over 3 days

36. Daily Space Weather Bulletin Products

37. Fast & automated alerts Also for geomagnetism, all quiet, … www.sidc.be *since 2011 Products

38. Monthly & weekly bulletins • Provisional Sunspot Indices. • Medium-term forecast of sunspot index. • Table of Solar and Geomagnetic activity indices. • Table of noticeable events (> M flare). • Forecasts of returning major sunspot groups. • Solar and Geomagnetic Activity report: • a general description of the solar and geomagnetic conditions during the month. • If applicable: a “hot items” section. • STCE Newsletter.

39. Worldwide RWC Data Products http://sidc.be/products

40. Space Pole Space Weather Tools & Products PROBA2 Science Center – Operates the PROBA2 solar satellite. Interactive Flare Tool SoFAST - Automated Flare Detection Interactive Solar map AFFECTS - Advanced Forecast For Ensuring communications Through Space - European FP7 project STAFF – Solar Timelines viewer (for AFFECTS). Solar Demon – Dimming and EUV wave Monitor (for AFFECTS). CME arrival alert (for AFFECTS). CME Speed Calculator Solar Weather Browser Cactus – CME Tracking System jhelioviewer Humain – Radio-astronomy station Regional SDO Data Archive USET – Ground based Solar Telescope International Sunspot Number – Record and Maintain K-LOGIC - Local Geomagnetic Activity Nowcast Virtual Space Weather Modelling Centre SAA Coordination Centre Space Weather Forecasting COMESEP – Forecasting Storms