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Linking Policy, Planning and Budgeting : Korean Experience and Challenges February 6, 2007 Kang Ho Lee ( klee21@mpb.go.kr ) Director, Growth Strategy Division Ministry of Planning and Budget Republic of Korea. 1. Background of Fiscal Reforms in Korea.
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Linking Policy, Planning and Budgeting : Korean Experience and Challenges February 6, 2007 Kang Ho Lee (klee21@mpb.go.kr) Director, Growth Strategy Division Ministry of Planning and Budget Republic of Korea
1. Background of Fiscal Reforms in Korea • Forecasting on additional spending in the future • Need extra resources, 1,100 trillion won for vision 2030 • Reallocation of expenditure between economic and social welfare resulted in aging and polarization problems • social welfare as % of total expenditure : 9.9% (1980) → 25.2% (2005) 40.0% (2030) • % of the population over 65: 7.2% (2000) 14.4%(2019) 24.1%(2030) • Increasing national debts after 1997’s Korean financial crisis • % of GDP : 12.3(1997) 23.0(2003) 33.4(2006) • Need to enhance the efficiency in public spending
Extra resources in need : 2% of GDP (avg] Total Expenditure More Spending w/oInst. Reform Current System under Vision 2030 1-1. Forecast of Fiscal Resources in Vision 2030 Savings from Inst. Reform 3% of GDP 2% of GDP
50.0 welfare 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 Economy 0.0 2005 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 ratio of budget 1-2. The Change of Resource Allocation in Vision 2030 • Increase of social welfare expenditure in the budget • : 9.9% (1980) 25.2% (2005) 40.0% (2030) • Decrease of economic spending in the budget • : 26.0% (1980) 19.9% (2005) 10.0% (2030)
Ratio(%) 33.2 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 23.0 33.4 32.9 32.3 31.3 National Budget Support to Economic Crisis(₩49 Trillion) 18.6 12.3 IMF Economic Crisis ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ‘10 1-3. National Debt Ratio of GDP since 1997
System Performance Management Top-down Budgeting Program Budget Legal Frame- work National Fiscal Act in 2006 National Fiscal Management Plan Increased efficiency Enhanced linkage Operation Building an advanced Public Expenditure Management System 2. Framework of Major Fiscal Reforms
2-1. What organization is responsible for budget reforms? • President has initiated budget reforms in 2003 • MPB has taken actions on budget reforms after that • Congress passed the National Fiscal Act last year • Lots of discussion between MPB and line ministries <History of budget ministry> • EPB (Deputy Prime M), 1960s~1994 • MOFE (Deputy Prime M), 1994~1998 • MPB (Minister), 1998~present
3. Linking Budget to Plans 3-1. NFMP(MTEP) • Discordance of 2007 budget between ’06~’10 NFMP and’04~’08 NFMP • Difference of total expenditures : 1.8% • Difference of Revenue : 4.4%
3-2. Program Budgeting • Program budget is a critical “building block” to link NFMP, Top-down budgeting, and PMS in a wholeProcess • For NFMP: provide program initiatives to represent medium-term national priorities • For Top-down Budgeting: provide the consultative bases to decide expenditure ceilings between line ministries and MPB • For Performance Management System: provide the units to link resources and results
4. Challenges to Performance Management System(1) • Low incentives from performance evaluation • Too focused on the adequate category (85% of 2007 budget) • Difference between evaluating year and reflecting year • Difficulties in building effective evaluation index
4. Challenges to Program Budget (2) • Align the annual budget classification with the classification in the NFMP • Keep programs within the organizational structure • Combine all activities according to program objectives regardless of revenue sources • Simplify the grouping of object levels
4. Challenges to MTEF andTop-down Budget (3) • Time constraint on the MTEF • How to meet expenditure ceilings • Mainly focused on the next year budget • Unit in setting expenditure ceilings : program or subsection ⑤ How to harmonize the top-down budget and deliberation process
Overall Scheme Vision Korea: New Stride of Hope for New Opportunities Goals Innovative, vibrant Economy Safe, equitable Society Stable, posed Nation Strategy Maintaining Growth Momentum UpgradingHuman Resources New Social Capital All-out Globalization Advanced Social Welfare System Vehicles VisionAction Plan ProactiveInvestment Institutional Reforms Overall Scheme of Vision 2030