PACS 4500

1. PACS 4500 Senior Seminar in Peace and Conflict Studies Section 002 Heidi Burgess Feb. 18, 2014

2. Conflict Mapping – Part II Date Change Announcement: • Due date change for FINAL maps & documentation: • Changed from Thurs. March 13 to • TUES March 18 (5 more days!!) • Due date for draft maps to be presented in class is now: Tues. Mar. 11 (full extra week!)

3. The assignment as it now appears on the website. Primer Two ways to do this: 1 slide, multiple slides.

4. Mapping “primer” • First experiment with parties and attitudes mapping…. • Show and Tell aim for 3-5 min ea….

5. Tell us…. • The basic ideas shown in your maps—start to give us an overview of what your conflict is about…realizing there is much more to come. • Tell us about any problems you had…or questions you have…about the process of drawing a map—on a computer. • Tell us about any discoveries you made of good/easy ways to do this!

6. Give feedback • What’s good about what you see… • What is confusing about what you see….

7. https://prezi.com/support/ Other useful stuff…. • Guy’s prezi presentation (I’ll post) • https://prezi.com/support/ - has a presi “how to”

8. Parts III and IV • Structural elements (ala Ricigliano) • Power • Events

9. Part III – Power • Parties’ sources of power and power strategies

10. Ways to map power elements • Just like attitudes map separately for each party…as an “attribute” – works particularly well for sources of power, can be used for power strategies as well. • For example:

11. U.S. IRAN UN ISRAEL

12. US Sources of Power • Military might (superpower, nuclear power) • Economic might…strong economy • Skills and knowledge (scientific, nuclear, political) • International Law (non-proliferation treaty), UN sanctions • Alliances (Europe, other Middle Eastern actors) Back

13. Or, another way to map power is • In terms of relationships, with arrows and documentation….

14. U.S. Growing exchange power Sanctions/Coercive power Harsh Rhetoric, veiled threats IRAN Integrative & exchange power Integrative & exchange power Sanctions UN Sanctions Harsh Rhetoric, overt threats Sanctions - Theats ISRAEL

15. or… The Major Players AQ USA GIROA Warlords NATO Taliban International Community The Afghans Pashtuns Elites NGO Warlords Pakistan Tajiks Others Uzbeks Hazara Iran Military Support Armed Conflict Government Humanitarian Direct Indirect

16. The Power Arena • The map depicts two major players, the international community, and the Afghans. Within these categories exist multiple key players, including the US/ISAF, and other international actors, the GIROA, the Taliban, the Pashtuns, other Afghan ethnic groups, and the warlords/elites. Key players in Afghanistan employ various types of power. Power, sources of power, and means are distributed unequally amongst the key players in Afghanistan. Actors employ power through both legitimate and illegitimate structures. Warlords/Elites are key power nodes in Afghanistan. Outside actors exercise power, influencing the conflict system positively and negatively. Land, social respect, and physical strength are key sources of power in Afghanistan. The map indicates military power is a key characteristic of the Afghan conflict. Those who know it best, call it the Afghan civil war for a reason. Military power is distributed amongst key players, mainly the GIROA, the resistance, meaning the Taliban and other groups, and ISAF/U.S., representing the military contingent of the international community seeking stability in Afghanistan. But violence as a conflict resolution method is distributed to the lowest levels of Afghan society.

17. Third way to map power is on events map • To be shown later….

18. Part IIIa – Structural Elements New!! • Other structural elements • Governance structures/rule of law • Security structures • Economic structures • Human Rights • Environment/natural resources • Media • Civil society actors • For example:

19. Serbia vs. bosnia

20. Legend • Red- negative feedback • Yellow- both positive and negative feedbaclk • Blue- positive feedback • Connecting circles- green (all interconnected)

21. International response Inequity Structural victimization of LPG Identity Nationalism Rape of Bosniak women Lack of awaren-ess Gender Acknowled-gement Cultural response to rape Reparat-ion Religion collective identity Domination Humiliat-ion Trauma Culture/Ethnicity Legend

22. STRUCTURALIZATION OF VICTIMIZATION OF LPGs Structural victimizat-ion of LPG • Positive attractor because… • Denial increases, rape increases • Rape increases, denial persists Rape of Bosniak women Structuralism of Victimization of LPGs: Denial of identity, security and voice.

23. Inequity Inequity • Superiority • Territory • Positive attractor because… • Reinforced sexism • Participation in rape Rape of Bosniak women Inequity: History of sexism, ethnocentrism and human rights abuses.

24. International response Internati-onal response • Negative attractor because… • Increase awareness, increase desire to stop rape crimes • Increase storytelling, increase awareness Rape of Bosniak women International Response: How the International community respond to the conflict.

25. Or…

26. Gun Control: Structure MapBy: Jason Dahl

27. Map Key = Equally Beneficial to Both Sides = More Favorable to Pro-Gun Legislation = More Favorable to Anti-Gun Legislation

28. Key: = Equally Beneficial to Both sides = More Favorable to Pro-Gun Legislation = More Favorable to Anti-Gun Legislation Pro-Gun Legislation 10 7 6 Security Media 11 8 5 Favorable to Pro-gun legislation side. Economy 9 12 Social Services Favorable to anti-gun legislation side Governance 2 Rule of Law 3 4 1 Anti-Gun Legislation

29. Structure: Governance • Problems: Access to government and voice often requires a lot of money and other financial assets. In the gun debate, groups like the NRA have a lot of financial resources, and therefore have lots of access to government and wield influence over government officials. On the contrary, having little or no money gives American’s very little influence and voice. Another problem is that the government doesn’t always do what is “right,” but instead often takes a partisan stance on issues and base votes off their opinions. Another issue is that the gun laws are volatile to politicians and reelection campaigns, which results in very few politicians wanting to address gun violence with the use of new gun legislation. • Assets: The government is not absolute and all three branches of the federal government are subject to checks and balances. This assures that one branch will not overpower the other branches and ensures that the safety and freedoms of all American’s are enforced. Back to Map

30. (1) Connections Between Governance and Anti-gun Legislation • Due to the political volatility of taking on new gun legislation, many politicians do not want to touch the issue of gun control. • Many legislative bills are likely to be shot down in the U.S. Senate and the House of Representatives. • Much of the measures proposed by pro-gun control advocates are likely to fail on a federal level, but some states have taken their own action. Colorado is one of them. • The NRA also financially supports a lot of political campaigns and endorse candidates that support their views. Likewise, politicians seeking election or reelection tend to seek out groups like the NRA and try to appeal to them to gain their endorsement and their donations. Back to Map

31. Structure: Rule of Law • Problem: We lack adequate and common sense gun laws, which make access to extremely lethal firearms and high capacity gun magazines quite easy. Many of our gun laws are weak and vary on a state by state basis. Restricting access to guns and imposing regulations is difficult in this country because of the Second Amendment which states that American’s have the right to bear arms. • Asset: There are checks and balances to our laws which make sure that gun rights are not absolute, and that gun owners cannot own any firearm they so desire. This allows lines to be drawn in the sand of what is a legal and illegal firearm. Back to Map

32. Structure: Media • Problems: There is a huge amount of violence portrayed in the media and in video games. This can make people desensitized to violence and murder. Another problem is that there is too many biased news sources in the United States. (The examples that come to mind are Fox News and MSNBC) The reason these are problems is that people are not exposed to the facts and truth, which distorts people’s perception of the “other sideand what the wants and needs of the “other side” are. • The media is well known for the 24-hour news cycle in which certain events are covered for a short amount of time until another event takes precedent and coverage. In relation to the gun battle, mass shootings happen and are quickly forgotten by the media and in turn American’s, and the conversation over gun control tends to fade away. Back to Map

33. Structure: Security • This refers to institutions that provide safety for people and groups. This includes the military, the police force, and all other security agents. • Assets: The police and other security institutions do a good job of keeping the peace, and protecting and serving the public. They allow us to stay unarmed, while also not fearing for our own safety. Groups such as the NRA and some gun owners fear the government and believe that the only adequate form of safety and self-defense are their guns. The belief is that civilians should have the same guns as our security forces so that the government cannot coerce and overpower civilians. • Problems: Because of todays lenient gun laws many of our country’s police forces face heavy gun violence from assault weapons and other military grade firearms. This can make it difficult and deadly to enforce certain areas. Back to Map

34. (10) Connections Between Security and Pro-Gun Legislation • This includes the police, teachers and school faculties, courts, etc. • Many of these groups, the police in particular, want assault weapons and other deadly firearms banned and off the streets. This involves new and more effective gun control measures. • Teachers and other school faculty and administrators are caught in the middle of the fight. Some argue that teachers should be armed. For the most part guns should stay out of the classrooms. Back to Map

35. (11) Connections Between Media and Economy • Economy: those who are economically in tuned and have a larger voice and influence influence the media. Those who have wealth can easily express their voice and exert their influence through the media. (interviews, op-eds, Twitter, Facebook etc.) Some influential players that have spoken out about the gun debate include Yoko Ono, Tony Bennett, Chris Rock, Mayor/Billionaire Michael Bloomberg, Bruce Willis, Jim Carrey, Karl Rove, and many more. • Both sides of the debate try to appeal to their bases through biased media such as MSNBC and Fox News and other biased news sources on the internet and television. Back to Map

36. (12) Connections Between Economy and Governance • Because politicians are always seeking out reelection funds, wealthy donors are given a lot of access to politicians and therefore, often wield a lot of influence over them. • Often in exchange for campaign funding, the politicians often take on many of the ideals of their donors. Therefore those with more financial resources can often gain more of a voice and more influence within the government through politicians. Etc…. Back to Map

37. Lastly…Events Mapping • Again there are several ways:

38. Lastly…Events Mapping • Again there are several ways: • Using the conflict/dispute diagram format

39. Conflicts and Disputes Events and Policies More Favorable to Anti-Nuclear Iran Parties (U.S., EU, and UN) UN sanctions continue, Iran still claims it’s unaffected ATTACK: 2007 Assassination NEGOTIATION: 2003: The Paris Agreement UN: 2002 1st UN security council resolution against Iran Iran repeatedly breaks IAEA protocol and safeguard agreements RHETORIC: 2002 Axis of Evil Speech DIALOGUE: 2009 Iran admits to secret nuclear facility Diplomatic relations RHETORIC: 2006: Khameni warns the U.S. Iran struggles under isolation tactics employed by U.S. & its allies U.S. embarrassed MILITARY:1979 Revolution And Hostage Crisis Events and Policies More Favorable to Pro-Nuclear Iran Parties (Iran)

40. Events and Policies More Favorable to Anti-Nuclear Iran Parties (U.S., EU, and UN) Conflict and Disputes Continued CYBER WARFARE: 2010 Stuxnet MILITARYTHREATS: 35th G8 Summit and Iran’s response SANCTIONS: 2012 EU Oil Boycott Iran’s currency takes a hit, and standard of living drops RHETORIC: 2013 Khamenei refuses one-one talks with U.S. about Nuclear program RHETORIC: 2010 Iran announces It’s enriching uranium to 20% PROVOCATION 2011: Iran threatens to cut of Straight of Hormuz Events and Policies More Favorable to Pro-Nuclear Iran Parties (Iran)

41. 2nd approach to events mapping • Using more of a list format, with winners/losers illustrated…

42. Level III/Macro Scale: Dispute History More Favorable to Pro-Fossil Interests More Favorable to Environmental Interests Kyoto Protocol – 1997 IPCC Gore Nobel Prize – 2007 Copenhagen Conference – 2009 US Stimulus/Alternative Energy – 2009 Climategate Controversy – 2009+ ? Final CAFÉ Regulations – Summer 2012 ? ? Keystone XL Pipeline Permits ?

43. Third Approach to Events Mapping Privileged Status of Muslims Chronological Event Map of the Bosnian Conflict Ottoman Occupation Ethnic Grievances National Identification Assassination Of Arch-Duke Serbian & Croatian Irredentism Occupation By Austro- Hungary Governing Policy World War I Conversion To Islam Oppression Of Christians Muslim Cult & Pol Awareness Constitution Of 1974 2nd Yugoslav State Serb Separatism Dissolution Of Yugoslavia Power Sharing Civil War Dayton Agreement Territorial Division Dysfunctional Government International Involvement Weak/Fragile State Rise of Nationalism End of Single-Party Rule Death of Tito Recognition Of Muslim Nationality LEGEND = 1463 - 1878 1st Yugoslav State World War II Atrocities Dominance Of Serbs Struggle For Power = 1878 - 1918 = 1918 - 1945 = 1945 - 1980 = 1980 - 1995 = 1995 - Present

44. Throughout…look for dynamics! • Homeostasis, positive and negative feedback loops, non-local or non-linear causation, cross-category causation and probabalistic effects. (See Lakoff, Little Blue Book. chpt 17—info follows.)

45. George Lakoff: Properties of Ecological Systems • Lakoff, George; Wehling, Elisabeth (2012-06-19). The Little Blue Book (pp. 97-98). Simon & Schuster, Inc.. Kindle Edition. • Homeostasis: rubber bands – stretch, return to form. Natural systems under normal conditions stay within certain bounds and are self-correcting. •

46. George Lakoff: Properties of Ecological Systems • Feedback: • + Feedback: Changes produce more of the same change and build on themselves. • - Feedback: Other changes produce less of the same change and tend to undo themselves

47. + Feedback Example • An example of positive feedback is the melting polar ice cap. • The ice cap reflects light and heat. • As the Earth warms, the ice cap melts. • The more it melts, the less heat it reflects and the more heat is absorbed into the atmosphere. • So the Earth gets progressively hotter, which tends to melt the ice cap more. • And the cycle continues

48. Non-local causation: • Causation at a distance, often in a chain of more direct causes. • For example, as the Earth heats, the water in the oceans heat up and more water evaporates, say, in the Pacific Ocean. • That atmospheric water is then blown by west-to-east winds over Canada and the North Pole, and in winter on the East Coast it falls as snow. • Thus heat in the Pacific can produce snow on the East Coast.

49. Non-Linear Causation A small change can produce a large change. • For example, the decision by oil-drilling managers to use slightly cheaper materials was a relatively small change, but it resulted in the huge BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.

50. Cross-Category Causation A change intended in one conceptual domain may have effects in other domains. • For example, the Yangtze River dam in China, intended only to provide hydroelectric power, displaced tens of thousands of villagers and caused the Chengdu earthquake! • Kenneth Boulding “Echo-system”