William Lapenta ,Naomi Surgi and Stephen Lord Environmental Modeling Center NOAA/NWS/NCEP

1. William Lapenta ,Naomi Surgiand Stephen LordEnvironmental Modeling CenterNOAA/NWS/NCEP Linking The HFIP Community With NCEP/EMC Operations

2. Outline The EMC Mission Tropical Cyclone Elements of the NCEP Model Production Suite Global Forecast & Data Assimilation System Regional Hurricane Forecasting Real-time Ocean Forecasting HFIP Goals and Structure Mapping NCEP/EMC Tropical Cyclone Modeling Priorities to HFIP/OFCM Facilitation of R&D results into Operations

3. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction CPC NHC NCO OPC HPC EMC SPC AWC SWPC

4. The EMC Mission….. In response tooperational requirements: • Develop and enhancenumerical guidance • Test and improve NCEP’s numerical forecast model systems via • Scientific upgrades • Tuning • Additional observations • Maintain operational model suite • The scientific correctness and integrity of operational forecast modeling systems • Modify current operational system to adapt to ever-present external changes • Transition operational numerical forecast models from research to operations • Transform & integrate • Code • Algorithms • Techniques • Manages and executes transition process including technical and system performance review before implementation EMC location within the funnel

5. Global Data Assimilation and Forecast Systems (GDAS/GFS) • 4 Cycles per day • T382(~35km) to 7.5 days • T190(~70km) to 16 days Horizontal Representation Spectral (spherical harmonic basis functions) with transformation to a Gaussian grid for calculation of nonlinear quantities and physics. Vertical Representation Sigma coordinate. Lorenz grid. Quadratic-conserving finite difference scheme by Arakawa and Mintz (1974). Vertical Resolution 64 unequally-spaced sigma levels. For a surface pressure of 1000 hPa, 15 levels are below 800 hPa, and 24 levels are above 100 hPa.

6. NCEP’s Regional HurricaneNumerical Guidance GFDL Movable nested Air-sea coupled Inner nest 9 km/42L Specialized vortex initialization, Upgraded with some GFS physics (2003, 2004) HWRF added in 2007 Based on NMM Dynamic Core Movable, two-way nested grid 9km inner; 27km outer; 42 vertical layers; 75 x 75° domain) Advanced physics (atmosphere/ocean fluxes; tested in GFDL - the "benchmark", NCEP GFS boundary layer and deep convection) Advanced vortex initialization that uses GSI 3D-var (an advancement over GFDL bogus) Princeton Ocean Model (POM) (with loop current initialization - same as GFDL)

7. Real Time Ocean Forecasting Systemand WAVEWATCH III • RTOFS Provides: • Routine estimation of the ocean state [T, S, U, V, W, SSH] • Daily 1 week forecast • 5 km coastal resolution • Initial and boundary conditions for local model applications • Wave Modeling: • NOAA Wavewatch III • Global and Regional • Unified model approach 7

8. The NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) • Unified NOAA approach to guide and accelerate improvements in forecasts, with emphasis on rapid intensity change, and reduction in uncertainty. • Responds to input from stakeholders, NSB, OFCM, and HIRWG reports. • Embraces strong collaboration with non-NOAA partners with objective to transition research into operations. HFIP Goals: • Reduce average track error by 50% for Days 1 through 5. • Reduce average intensity error by 50% for Days 1 through 5. • Increase the probability of detection (POD) for rapid intensity change to 90% at Day 1 decreasing linearly to 60% at Day 5. • Decrease the false alarm ratio (FAR) for rapid intensity change to 10% for Day 1 increasing linearly to 30% at Day 5. • Extend the lead time for hurricane forecasts out to Day 7.

9. Placing HFIP into the Funnel…. Role of the Teams and Leads • Each year develop an overall plan for the team’s component of the HFIP Program • Needs to be coordinated with: • Other team plans • Across the various organizations (13 total) • Role of Team lead • Provide summaries of progress • Lead the development of the program plan for the team • Lead the coordination across teams and organizations

10. NCEP/EMC HFIP FY10 Implementation Priorities • Improve performance of the HWRF regional system in support of TPC intensity forecasts {1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12} • Data assimilation and vortex initialization (B1) • Model physics (i.e., atm/ocean exchange) (B3) • Model dynamics (B2) • Improvement of the GFS to support longer range track forecasts {1, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 14} • Modify GFS shallow/deep convection and PBL (B2, B3a, B3c) • Detrainment from all levels (deep convection) • PBL diffusion in inversion layers reduced (decrease erosion of marine stratus) • Increase model horizontal resolution (T382 [~35km] to T574 [~28km])(B2) • Improve performance of RTOFS and WAVEWATCH III™ {1, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 14} • Waves as direct source to TKE in air and water (B3a, B3b) • Assimilation of JASON 2 data (B3b) NOTE: Brackets are NHC/CPHC priority operational needs Parentheses are model development research areas

11. NCEP/EMC HFIP FY10 & Beyond Development Priorities • HWRF Development Areas {1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12} • pressure-wind relationship • initial conditions and data assimilation • atmospheric physics • coupling between atmosphere, ocean and wave components • testing of high resolution HWRF configuration • Diagnostic capability to guide future operational model development {3, 6, 7, 9} • GDAS/GFS development {1, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 14} • Implement a 1/12 degree global RTOFS based on HYCOM {1, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 14} • Develop operational hurricane ensemble capability {1, 3, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 14} NOTE: Brackets are NHC/CPHC priority operational needs

12. NCEP Planned Hurricane Forecast System —Regional Component

13. Process to Implement Major Upgradesto The NCEP Model Production Suite Implementation Phase • SPA’s build NCO parallel from RFC’s • 30-day NCO parallel • Test code stability • Test dataflow • Products to NCEP Centers and EMC code developers • NCEP Centers • Evaluate impact • Assessments to NCEP OD R&D and Pre-Implementation Phase Systematic Testing EMC Change Control Board • Scientific Integrity • Product Quality • EMC Mgmt Approval • 30-day NCO parallel stable • NCEP centers approve • Briefing to NCEP Director for final approval • Generate RFC’s • Submit RFC’s to NCO Implementation

14. Apply Implementation Processes to GFS/GSI December 2009 Implementation… • Adding new observation data sources. • Tropical storm pseudo sea-level pressure obs • NOAA19 hirs/4,AMSU-A, & MHS brightness temp obs • NOAA18 sbuv/2. Monitor N19 GOME, and OMI ozone (no assimilation) • RARS (currently only EARS) 1B data • EUMETSAT-9 atm motion vectors • Implementing improved techniques in GSI analysis. • Use uniform thinning mesh for brightness temp data • Improvements to assimilation of GPS RO data (QC, retune ob errors, improved forward operator) • Add dry mass pressure constraint • Merge GMAO & EMC codes for 4d-var capability • Update background error covariance • Proper use of different spectral truncation between background and analysis • Benefits • Improved GFS tropical storm track & intensity forecasts • Small improvement in global forecast accuracy

15. Time and Dedication for GFS/GSI December 2009 Implementation • 17 months required to develop, test and implement • 119 person months of effort (EMC, NCO, GFDL, TPC, SPC, HPC, AWC) • 17 months of continuous cycles 4/day with 16 day forecasts retrospective/real-time testing conducted for GFS/GSI • 500 HWRF and 600 GFDL TC/Hurricane cases simulated • 1000 Node hours and 75 TB of disk consumed

16. The Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) & HFIP….. Purpose:To serve as a bridge between research and operations to facilitate the activities of both halves of the NWP Community • Research: functionally equivalent operational environment to test and evaluate new NWP methods over extended retrospective periods • Operational: benefits from DTC T&E of strengths and weaknesses of new NWP advances prior to consideration for operational implementation New Science and Technology DTC AFWA EMC Research Community DTC NCAR RAL/MMM NOAA/ESRL/EMC Operational Community TPC Operational Codes

17. DTC Goals on Hurricanes Facilitate transfer of research to operations by creating a framework for NCEP and the research community to collaborate Support the community in using HWRF (the current NCEP operational hurricane model) • HWRF physics into WRF V3.2—plan to use for FY11 implementation • First HWRF Tutorial (Feb 24-26, 2010) • EMC/MMM/DTC Hurricane Workshop (Feb 22-23, 2010) Develop and maintain a hurricane testing and evaluation infrastructure at DTC • Operational perspective and expertise in residence (N. Surgi) • Share burden of pre-implementation testing • assure integrity of code and evaluate new developments for potential operational implementation Hypothesis: Higher probability of successful R&D transition into NCEP Operations

18. In Summary NCEP/EMC continues to build partnerships to satisfy customer needs (It’s a NWS Support Center) Tropical Cyclone Elements of the NCEP Model Production Suite Global Forecast & Data Assimilation System Regional Hurricane Forecasting Real-time Ocean Forecasting Sytem NCEP/EMC providing TC modeling priorities and plans to the external community Facilitation of R&D results into operations through the DTC