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William. M. Lapenta Director, NCEP

William. M. Lapenta Director, NCEP. National Centers for Environmental Prediction: 6’th Ensembles Users Workshop March 25, 2014. NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance Supports the Agency Mission. Lead Time and Accuracy!. Numerical Weather Prediction at NOAA

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William. M. Lapenta Director, NCEP

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  1. William. M. LapentaDirector, NCEP National Centers for Environmental Prediction: 6’th Ensembles Users Workshop March 25, 2014

  2. NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance Supports the Agency Mission Lead Time and Accuracy! • Numerical Weather Prediction at NOAA • Required for agency to meet service-based metrics • National Weather Service GPRA* Metrics (* Government Performance & Results Act) • Hurricane Track and Intensity • Winter Storm Warning • Precipitation Threat • Flood Warning • Marine Wind Speed and Wave Height • Operational numerical guidance: • Foundational tools used by government, public and private industry to improve public safety, quality of life and make business decisions that drive U.S. economic growth 2

  3. Seamless Suite of Operational Numerical Guidance Systems Outlook Guidance Threats Assessments Forecast Lead Time Forecasts Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination Benefits Spanning Weather and Climate Forecast Uncertainty Years Seasons Months • Climate Forecast System • North American Ensemble Forecast System 2 Week • Global Ensemble Forecast System • Global Forecast System • Global Dust 1 Week • Short-Range Ensemble Forecast • Wave Ensemble Days • Waves • Global Ocean • North American Mesoscale • Bays • Space Weather • Fire Wx • Regional Hurricane • (HWRF & GFDL) • Storm Surge Hours • Rapid Refresh • Air Quality Minutes • Dispersion (smoke) • Tsunami • Whole Atmosphere • HRRR • NMME • NLDAS Health Aviation Recreation Ecosystem Agriculture Commerce Hydropower Environment Maritime Fire Weather Life & Property Energy Planning Reservoir Control Emergency Mgmt Space Operations 3

  4. NOAA’s Operational Numerical Guidance Suite (Jan 2014) Regional Hurricane GFDL WRF-NMM Climate Forecast System (CFS) Waves WaveWatch III SURGE SLOSH 3D-VAR DA 3D-VAR DA Ecosystem EwE GFS, MOM4, NOAH, Sea Ice Ocean HYCOM P-SURGE SLOSH Regional Bays • Great Lakes (POM) • N Gulf of Mexico (FVCOM) • Columbia R. (SELFE) • Chesapeake (ROMS) • Tampa (ROMS) • Delaware (ROMS) ESTOFS ADCIRC Global Forecast System (GFS) 3D-En-Var DA Regional NAM NMMB NOAH 3D-VAR DA Dispersion HYSPLIT Global Spectral NOAH Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) Air Quality Short-Range Ensemble Forecast 21 GFS Members CMAQ WRF(ARW, NMM) NMMB Rapid Refresh High Res Windows 3D-VAR DA WRF(ARW, NMM) & NMMB WRF ARW North American Ensemble Forecast System Space Weather North American Land Surface Data Assimilation System High Resolution RR NEMS Aerosol Global Component (NGAC) 3D-VAR DA GEFS, Canadian Global Model WRF ARW ENLIL GFS & GOCART NOAH Land Surface Model 4

  5. The NOAA Operational Modeling Strategy…High Level Perspective • Moving away from the “model of the day” • Continue to pursue multi-model approach to ensembles • Don’t forget: ensemble system only as good as the modeling system it is built from • Priorities for deterministic development are clear: • Data assimilation (methodology and observations) • Resolution—horizontal and vertical • Model physics • Clouds, microphysics, radiation, land, ocean, ice, aerosols….includes coupling • Dynamic core • Must consider advanced HPC technologies but don’t forget about the science • Regional systems shift to convection permitting applications

  6. Things That Keep Me Up at Night… • How will the productions suite evolve as the resolution of the global systems increase? • GFS capable of satisfying NAM requirements? • GEFS capable of satisfying SREF requirements? • Medium range reforecasts from GEFS becoming new requirements? • Will regional systems (NAM, RAP and HRRR) shift to convection permitting applications? • HRRRE & NARRE capable of satisfying WOF requirements? • What will the week 3+ to seasonal guidance system look like? • Can/should GEFS be extended to 30-days? (coupling required?) • What level of complexity is required in CFS? • Can the NMME be developed and sustained? • How does all the above impact down stream systems? • How can NOAA engage the scientific community effectively? • How can NOAA engage the stakeholders effectively?

  7. Numerical Guidance Suite Execution WCOSS NOAA Supercomputer 24-h Cycle 01 February 2014 SREF Para RAPv2 Para HyCOM Number of Nodes GEFS NAM GFS SREF 12 18 00 06 00 CFS RAP Time of Day (UTC)

  8. The HPC Cost of a High Resolution CONUS Ensemble System 24-h Cycle 01 February 2014 One Member of the HRRR SREF Para RAPv2 Para HyCOM Number of Nodes GEFS NAM GFS SREF 12 18 00 06 00 CFS RAP Time of Day (UTC) • Today: WCOSS = 648 Nodes; 1 HRRR Member = 72 Nodes • Fit 8 HRRR members on WCOSS • No other modeling systems

  9. NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction A.K.A.—the new building…. • Four-story, 268,762 square foot building in Riverdale, MD will house 800+ Federal employees, and contractors • 5 NCEP Centers (NCO, EMC, HPC, OPC, CPC) • NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) • NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) • OAR Air Resources Laboratory • Includes 465 seat auditorium & conference center, library, deli, fitness center and health unit • Includes 40 spaces for visiting scientists • Represents a “Game Changer” in our ability to do business

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