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Resource Team Update

Resource Team Update. Thomas Carr July 28, 2009 Studies Work Group Call. Resource Team Meetings. Resource team weekly meetings : June 4, 16, 24 July 1, 8, 16, 22, 27 Topics Calculate RPS energy requirements for 2019 & 2029 Deriving the load-resource gap in 2019

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Resource Team Update

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  1. Resource Team Update Thomas Carr July 28, 2009 Studies Work Group Call

  2. Resource Team Meetings • Resource team weekly meetings: • June 4, 16, 24 • July 1, 8, 16, 22, 27 • Topics • Calculate RPS energy requirements for 2019 &2029 • Deriving the load-resource gap in 2019 • Develop resource portfolio for 2019 and 2029 cases • Generation resources subject to Once Through Cooling (OTC) and Endangered Species Act (ESA)

  3. RPS Requirements 2019 & 2029 • 2019 Methodology • Start with BA 2019 loads supplied to WECC • Convert to state load forecast 2019 • Adjust state load by % shares using EIA 2007 data • Multiply each share by appropriate RPS% • Tentative estimate: 159,007 GWh or 15% of load • 2029 Methodology • Expand 2019 BA loads by 10 year growth factor • Revise RPS% for each state • Tentative estimate: 205,043 GWh or 16.6% of load

  4. Load & Resources – Gap • General methodology • Gap = [Peak load + planning margin] – Generation at peak • Started with WECC-wide analysis • Sensitivity to assumptions • Planning margin: range of 12% to 15% • Capacity factors at peak: hydro 90% to 70% • Renewable shares: wind/solar range 70%/10% to 40%/40% • Shift to Subregional analysis • Transmission constraints between subregions • Subregions have different peaks, planning margins, capacity factors, and resource portfolios

  5. Subregional Gap Analysis #1 • Subregional Load-Resource Methodology • Model 7 subregions in WECC • Don Scoffield spreadsheet development • Toggle switch • Summer and winter subregionalcoincident peaks • Development status of generation, i.e. under construction • Input assumptions • planning margins for each subregion • discounted capacity factors for each subregion. • Model derives an initial gap for each subregion • Adjustment for trade flows between subregions • Flows identified on major transmission paths at peak period • Estimated net imports to derive an adjusted gap

  6. Subregional Gap Analysis #2 • Incremental Load Methodology • Arne Olson spreadsheet development • Premise: 2008 resources were adequate to meet demand in each subregion with a sufficient planning reserve margin. • Three step process • First, measure the peak demand growth from today to 2019 for each BA. Use maximum peak demand for the 2006-2008. • Second, sum the BA demand growth for each sub-region to yield a measure of sub-regional peak demand growth. • Third, assess the reasonableness of that demand growth estimate by calculating average peak demand growth rates for each sub-region.

  7. Next steps • Identify the type and location of incremental generation to be added • WREZ model training sessions • Engage LSE resource planners and WEIL to identify preferred renewable resource hubs • CA RETI/PUC resource portfolios being developed

  8. OTC/ESA Generation Resources • WEIL scenario to evaluate the impact of removing resources subject to Once-Through-Cooling (OTC) and Endangered Species Act (ESA) • Mary Johannis took lead in developing list of generation resources subject to OTC and ESA potential restrictions

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