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SWG Resource Team Update

SWG Resource Team Update. Thomas Carr August 20, 2009 TAS Meeting Salt Lake City, UT. Resource Team Meetings & Tasks. Resource team weekly meetings: June 4, 16, 24 July 1, 8, 16, 22, 27 August 5, 12, 18 Tasks Calculate RPS energy requirements for 2019 & 2029

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SWG Resource Team Update

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  1. SWG Resource Team Update Thomas Carr August 20, 2009 TAS Meeting Salt Lake City, UT

  2. Resource Team Meetings & Tasks • Resource team weekly meetings: • June 4, 16, 24 • July 1, 8, 16, 22, 27 • August 5, 12, 18 • Tasks • Calculate RPS energy requirements for 2019 & 2029 • Deriving the load-resource gap in 2019 • Develop resource portfolio for 2019 and 2029 cases • Generation resources subject to Once Through Cooling (OTC) and Endangered Species Act (ESA)

  3. 1. RPS Requirements 2019 & 2029 • 2019 Methodology • Start with BA 2019 loads supplied to WECC • Convert to state load forecast 2019 • Adjust state load by % shares using EIA 2007 data • Multiply each share by appropriate RPS% • Tentative estimate: 146,090 GWh or 13.7% of load • Adjustments made for line losses and sales, CA non-RPS • 2029 Methodology • Expand 2019 BA loads by 10 year growth factor • Revise RPS% for each state • Tentative estimate: 205,043 GWh or 16.6% of load • Old estimate does not reflect adjustments for line losses in 2019 estimates

  4. 2. Load & Resources – Gap • General methodology • Gap = [Peak load + planning margin] – Generation at peak • Started with WECC-wide analysis without transmission constraints assuming: • Planning margin: range of 12% to 15% • Capacity factors at peak: hydro 90% to 70% • Renewable shares: wind/solar range 70%/10% to 40%/40% • Shift to Subregional analysis • Transmission constraints between subregions • Subregions have different peaks, planning margins, capacity factors, and resource portfolios

  5. Approach #1: Subregional Loads & Resource Analysis • Subregional Load-Resource Methodology • Model 7 subregions in WECC • Don Scoffield spreadsheet development • Toggle switch • Summer and winter subregional coincident peaks • Development status of generation, i.e. under construction • Input assumptions • planning margins for each subregion • discounted capacity factors for each subregion. • Model derives an initial gap for each subregion • Adjustment for trade flows between subregions • Flows identified on major transmission paths at peak period • Estimated net imports to derive an adjusted gap

  6. Approach #2: Incremental Analysis • Incremental Load Methodology • Arne Olson spreadsheet development • Premise: 2008 resources were adequate to meet demand in each subregion with a sufficient planning reserve margin. • Three step process • First, measure the peak demand growth from today to 2019 for each BA. Use maximum peak demand for the 2006-2008. • Second, sum the BA demand growth for each sub-region to yield a measure of sub-regional peak demand growth. • Third, assess the reasonableness of that demand growth estimate by calculating average peak demand growth rates for each sub-region.

  7. 3. Resource Portfolio for Base Case • Specify TEPPC base case resources to meet RPS requirements in applicable states • Two prong strategy to specify renewables for the TEPPC base case • California • RETI / CA PUC 33% RPS report • Rest-of-WECC • LSE IRP information • L&R data on renewable projects

  8. Base Case Portfolio • California • 33% RPS target; about 70-75% of all incremental renewables • RETI project identified renewable energy zones • CA PUC released 33% RPS Implementation Analysis that identified 4 resource scenarios to meet the 33% RPS target • Reference Case – current procurement and market trends, including large reliance on solar CSP • Out-of-State Case – higher levels of imports from NV and WY • Data to specify CA resources • CA PUC 33% RPS Report, appendix p. 86-89 • 33% RPS Calculator model/spreadsheet • RETI Phase 1B, Chap 4, maps of RETI zones • Keith White of CA PUC providing information

  9. Base Case Portfolio • Rest-of-WECC • IRP survey of LSEs outside of CA • L&R data for renewable projects by subregion

  10. OTC/ESA Generation Resources • WEIL scenario to evaluate the impact of removing resources subject to Once-Through-Cooling (OTC) and Endangered Species Act (ESA) • Mary Johannis took lead in developing list of generation resources subject to OTC and ESA potential restrictions • Generation to be removed identified, now working on what to add

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