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Renewed in early 2013 for a new term of 3 years

WGNE MJO Task Force: Understanding MJO Dynamics and Aiding Subseasonal Prediction Matthew Wheeler WGNE MJO Task Force co-chair CAWCR/Bureau of Meteorology. MJO Task Force : Background. Renewed in early 2013 for a new term of 3 years Sponsor: Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE)

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Renewed in early 2013 for a new term of 3 years

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  1. WGNE MJO Task Force: Understanding MJO Dynamics and Aiding SubseasonalPredictionMatthew WheelerWGNE MJO Task Force co-chairCAWCR/Bureau of Meteorology

  2. MJO Task Force : Background • Renewed in early 2013 for a new term of 3 years • Sponsor: Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE) • Follow on from the WCRP-WWRP/THORPEX/YOTC MJOTF and US CLIVAR MJO Working Group • Website: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/MJO_Task_Force_index.html Members Matthew Wheeler Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (co-chair) Eric Maloney Colorado State University (co-chair) Charlotte DeMottCMMAP/Colorado State Univ Jon Gottschalck National Centers for Environmental Prediction Daehyun Kim Columbia University June-Yi Lee Pusan National University Tomoki Miyakawa AORI/ University of Tokyo Richard Neale National Center for Atmospheric Research Suryachandra Rao Indian Institute Tropical Met Camille Risi IPSL/Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique Ken Sperber PCDMI/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Jérôme Vialard IPSL/LOCEAN Duane Waliser Jet Propulsion Laboratory/Caltech Steve Woolnough University of Reading Prince Xavier UK Met Office Important others and former members X. Jiang, N. Klingaman, J. Petch, F. Vitart, J. Benedict, H. Hendon, D. Raymond, Xiouhua Fu, Chidong Zhang, Augustin Vintzileos, Masaki Satoh, Hai Lin, Mitch Moncrieff, Min-Seop Ahn, Hae-Jeong Kim

  3. Overall Goal: Facilitate improvements in the representation of the MJO in weather and climate models in order increase the predictive skill of the MJO and related weather and climate phenomena. Organizedinto 5 Subprojects • Process-oriented diagnostics/metrics for MJO simulation (leads: D. Kim, P. Xavier, E. Maloney, T. Miyakawa, C. Risi) • Boreal summer monsoon ISV monitoring and forecast metrics (leads: J.-Y. Lee, M. Wheeler, Hae-Jeong Kim) • Assessment of CMIP5 model capability to simulate realistic intraseasonal variability (leads: K. Sperber, D. Kim, M.-S. Ahn) • MJO TF + GASS Multi-Model DiabaticProcessesExperiment (leads: D. Waliser, X. Jiang, J. Petch, P. Xavier, S. Woolnough, N. Klingaman) • Develop, coordinate, and promote analyses of MJO air-sea interaction (leads: J. Vialard, S. Rao, C. DeMott, N. Klingaman)

  4. MJO TF Subproject: Process-Oriented Diagnostics/Metrics • Exploring Diagnostics/Metrics that provide more insight into why a model may have a good/poor MJO • Facilitate improvements in convective and other physical parameterizations relevant to the MJO. Zhu et al 2010 Thayer-Calder and Randall 2009; Kim et al 2009 Hannah and Maloney 2011; Benedict et al. 2013

  5. Applying a RCP (Relative humidity Composites as a function of Precipitation) diagnostic to a subset of CMIP3 and CMIP5 models ERA-I RH Composite A metric is derived from the RCP diagnostic by using the lower-tropospheric (850-500hPa) mean RH for upper 1% of rain events and the east-west precipitation power ratio in the MJO band. This scatter plot shows the good relationship between this metric and model’s MJO strength. Kim et al. (2013)

  6. MJO TF Subproject: Assessment of CMIP5 Models Comprehensive assessment of CMIP5 model intraseasonal variability using the diagnostics package of the U.S. CLIVAR MJO Working Group. Lag correlation of equatorial precipitation onto Indian Ocean reference point CMIP5 Analysis Website: http://climate.snu.ac.kr/mjo_diagnostics/index.htm Courtesy of Min-Seop Ahn

  7. Previous MJO TF Subproject: MJO Forecast Metric We used the Wheeler-Hendon (WH04) Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index to monitor the MJO and monitor/assess numerical model forecasts of the RMMs CEOF1 CEOF2 This plot is from the CPC web-site display of dynamical model MJO index forecasts, one of the successes of the MJO Working Group (Gottschalck et al. 2010). Operational center data is being collected by NOAA CPC at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml under the auspices of CLIVAR and the WGNE MJOTF. Paper coming soon!

  8. MJO TF Subproject: Boreal Summer ISV Forecast Metric Following our success with the Wheeler-Hendon (WH04) Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index, we have sought to develop new indices for the boreal summer ISO (BSISO; Lee et al. 2013). BSISO1 Lee et al. (2013) BSISO2 Operational center data is being sent to and collected by the APCC in Busan, Korea, with the results will be displayed on their web pages at http://www.apcc21.org.

  9. Boreal Summer ISV Monitoring Site Implemented at APEC Climate Center in Busan

  10. MJO TF Subproject: MJO Air-Sea Interaction • Develop, coordinate, and promote analyses of MJO air-sea interaction, including development of diagnostics that relate MJO simulation capability to fidelity in simulating key air-sea interaction processes. • New Expertise: Jérôme Vialard, Suryachandra Rao, Charlotte DeMott • Precise thrust of these activites still under discussion • Comprehensive review article • Entrainment of new observations, including DYNAMO and satellite • Process modeling using one-dimensional ocean model

  11. Vertical Structure and Diabatic Processes of the MJO: Global Model Evaluation Project MJO TF GASS MJO Phenomena/Modeling Expertise + Model Diagnostic/Development Expertise • Characterize observed and modelled temperature, moisture, and cloud structures within the multi-scale convective systems during the MJO life cycle and determine the roles of various heating, moistening and momentum mixing processes. • Evaluate the ability of current models to hindcast MJO events, and characterize the evolution of the “error” growth in the profiles of moistening, diabatic heating, etc. • Elucidate key model deficiencies in depicting the MJO physical process evolution, and provide guidance to model development/improvement efforts. • Based on above analyses, develop more targeted physics/detailed process model studies as well as formulate plans for needed observations (in-situ, airborne, satellite).

  12. Vertical Structure and Diabatic Processes of the MJO: Global Model Evaluation Project MJO Task Force/YOTC and GASS Time step / 2 –Day Physics Errors Daily / Weekly Forecast Errors Long-Term Climate Simulation Errors 1. climate simulation – multi-year simulations coupled or atmosphere only 2.short range hindcasts – daily 48hr lead during ~20 days of the MJO 3.medium range hindcasts – daily 20-day lead time www.ucar.edu/yotc/mjodiab.html Analysis leads: Xianan Jiang, Nick Klingaman, Prince Xavier

  13. Status and Plans • Over 40 modelling groups signed up. • Initial results were presented and discussed at Singapore joint MJOTF-GASS meeting, June 3-5 2013.and IWM-V meeting last week in Macau • DYNAMO November 2011 case has been proposed as an extension of the project • Identify critical / poorly-constrained processes for subsequent detailed GASS process modelling studies. • Dovetails with MJO TF Diagnostics/Metrics Work. • Data to made available very soon from NASA JPL (Nov 2013) More, Full List Available on Project Website www.ucar.edu/yotc/mjodiab.html

  14. Extension of Coordinated Hindcast Case to DYNAMO Period

  15. November 2011 Event Will Be a Focus (10-Day Hindcasts) • November DYNAMO MJO event is the most intensive observing period during the project. • 10-day hindcasts will be conducted from early November/late October with high temporal resolution output of physical tendencies

  16. Other Activities • Although now most closely affiliated with WGNE, we will continue strong integration with other WMO units (WWRP/THORPEX, WCRP, CLIVAR, GASS, YOTC, S2S) • Co-organizer WWRP International Workshop on Monsoons (IWM-V) in Macau in October 2013. • Possible joint efforts with S2S: • Maritime Continent prediction barrier • Physical processes of boreal summer ISO • Ocean-atmosphere interaction • MJO and mid-latitude weather forecast skill • Boreal summer ISO forecasts in S/SE Asia • Applications • Land-surface interactions, others….

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