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Peak Oil Future oil shortages and mitigation/adaptation options for Australian cities

Peak Oil Future oil shortages and mitigation/adaptation options for Australian cities Bruce Robinson, Convenor. Look out !! Something serious is looming on the radar. ? ? ? ?. Peak Oil Future oil shortages and mitigation/adaptation options for Australian cities

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Peak Oil Future oil shortages and mitigation/adaptation options for Australian cities

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  1. Peak OilFuture oil shortages and mitigation/adaptation options for Australian cities Bruce Robinson, Convenor Look out !! Something serious is looming on the radar ? ? ? ?

  2. Peak OilFuture oil shortages and mitigation/adaptation options for Australian cities Bruce Robinson, Convenor Look out !! Something serious is looming on the radar ? ? ? ?

  3. Part of the international ASPO alliance www.ASPO-Australia.org.au An Australia-wide network of professionals working to reduce oil vulnerability Working groups Urban and transport planning Town planning professionals (being formed) Finance Sector Health Sector Social Services Sector Remote indigenous communities Active transport (bicycle & walking) Agriculture, Fisheries and Food Biofuels Oil & Gas industry Regional and city working groups Construction Industry Public transport sector Defence and Security Children and Peak Oil Young Professionals working group

  4. Peak Oil but when? 2050 2010 1970 1930 Outline This is about oil, not energy in general. Transport (largely) Global oil supply, not just Australia's ●What is Peak Oil ? the time when global oil production stops rising and starts its final decline We will never "run out of oil" ●When is the most probable forecast date ? ? 2012 +/- 5 years ● Peak Exports is likely to occur sooner ● Oil vulnerability assessment and risk management plans are crucial for city planning, and for governments at all levels ● Why does it seem like all decision-makers are in a state of denial ? ?

  5. Macquariereport September 16th 2009 "The Big Oil Picture: We're not running out, but that doesn't mean we'll have enough" Financial Times September 17th 2009 2005 2009 2013 Toronto

  6. Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure, says whistleblower • Exclusive: Watchdog's estimates of reserves inflated says top official • guardian.co.uk, Monday 9 November 2009 The world is much closer to running short of oil than official estimates admit, according to a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency who claims it has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying. 2008

  7. Two analogies for Peak Oil risks 1. Hurricane Katrina (New Orleans, 2005) 2. US Financial Crisis (World, 2008-09) Can we learn to prepare for probable events rather than just hoping business will be as usual ? What are the reasons for the ubiquitous and very risky "no-worries" attitudes of decision-makers KOSPI

  8. First Major Article about Peak Oil Scientific American March 1998 1995 www.aspo-australia.org.au/References/Campbell%20Laherrere%20Scientific-American-March-98.pdf

  9. www.csiro.au/resources/FuelForThoughtReport.html

  10. August 2008 www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/652/ October 29 2008 • Time for an energy bail-out • Peak oil is just five years away, • and we must start to plan now to avert a truly ruinous crisis www.peakoiltaskforce.net

  11. The world is heading for a catastrophic energy crunch that could cripple a global economic recovery because most of the major oil fields in the world have passed their peak production, a leading energy economist has warned Fatih Birol, chief economist of the International Energy Agency (IEA), the developed world's energy watchdog The IEA"estimates that the average production-weighted observed decline rate worldwide is currently 6.7% pa for fields that have passed their production peak”.

  12. 2008 "Even if oil demand were to remain flat to 2030, 45 m barrels/day of gross capacity -roughly four times the capacity of Saudi Arabia - would be needed just to offset the decline from existing fields"

  13. Australian lecture tour June 2009 Prof Kjell Aleklett Global Energy Systems Uppsala University, Sweden

  14. WEO 2008 and Uppsala Oil Outlook 2008 International Energy Agency (OECD) 2008 2008 Uppsala Global Energy Systems group Using the same IEA data fields to be developed and yet to be found, and the same natural gas production Different conclusions. IEA production forecasts are "outside reality", not possible. (because IEA have assumed impossible production rates from the reserves)

  15. "A MIDDLE EAST VIEW OF THE GLOBAL OIL SITUATION" A.M. Samsam Bakhtiari National Iranian Oil Company May 2002 Global oil crunch at the horizon --- most probably within the present decade. "...It would take a number of miracles to thwart such a rational scenario.. A series of simultaneous miracles is not possible --for there are limits even to God Almighty's mercifulness". “Noah built his ark before it started raining” It is very hard to build an ark under water !!! We must start preparing our cities for Peak Oil in advance www.isv.uu.se/iwood2002

  16. Dr. Sadad I. Al Husseini, ex Saudi Aramco • Oil and Money Conference, London, October 30, 2007 ...predicts a 10 year plateau a structural ceiling determined by geology Production M b/day Price $/barrel 100 90 80 70 Economists say "As prices rise, production will increase". Clearly false from these data.

  17. Germany, October 22 2007 Fig. 7 Oil production world summary IEA WEO 2008 www.energywatchgroup.org/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG_Oilreport_10-2007.pdf 2008

  18. A simple observation -- or why peak will be earlier than most people expect Chris Skrebowski Editor, Petroleum Review, London ‘Global production falls when loss of output from countries in decline exceeds gains in output from those that are expanding.’

  19. THE GROWING GAP Regular Conventional Oil Billion barrels of oil per year Longwell, 2002

  20. Australia uses 51,000,000,000 litres of oil each year a cube of about 370 metres size 80% of Australia’s oil usage is in transport If Australia’s 20 M tpa wheat crop → ethanol = ~10% Perth’s Central Park building is 249 m high, to top of tower 100 ml of oil contains 1 kWh of energy. Enough to move a small car to the top of the Eiffel tower

  21. ABARE Australian Commodities March 2009 22 million in 2006

  22. Million barrels/ day 2008 BP Statistical Review, 2009 Australia uses 0.94 China 8.0 US 19.4 World 84.4 US 1 cubic km oil / year 1 km l l China Australia United States

  23. Mortgage and Oil Vulnerability in Perth www.griffith.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/88851/urp_rp17_dodsonsipe-2008.pdf

  24. Sunshine Coast Regional Council September 2009 Maribyrnong City Council’s Peak Oil Contingency Plan a first for Australia

  25. Australia Actual Forecast } Consumption $15.7 billion 2008/09 P50 Production

  26. www.ASPO-Australia.org.au General priorities for facing Peak Oil 1: Awareness and engagement 2: People solutions Frugality Efficiency Last: Alternative fuels and technologies Failure to act now will prove incredibly costly We must recognise the urgency, and leave the "business as usual" cult. Oil vulnerability assessment and risk management are crucial important tools for planners, governments and investors. Building more distant suburbs, urban freeways and tunnels will soon be seen as crazy These slides at http://tinyurl.com/Cities-Peak-Oil Hint: Check your superannuation is not being invested into urban toll-roads, tunnels and airports. 1ADX♦245 STATE OF AWARENESS

  27. a few more slides follow, in case they are needed for questions

  28. Australian Government Policy and Action Options 1: “Talk about it, Talk about it” 2. Engage people, “Participatory democracy” 3. Dismantle the "perverse policies" that subsidise heavy car use and excessive freight transport. 4. Encourage frugal use of fuel, and disadvantage profligate users. Fuel taxes should be incrementally raised to European levels to reduce usage. 5: SmartCard tradable personal fuel allocation system. A flexible mechanism for short-term oil shocks, as well for encouraging people to reduce their fuel usage.. 6. Concentrate on the psychological and social dimensions of automobile dependence, not just “technological fixes” 7. Implement nationwide "individualised marketing" travel demand management. 8. Railways, cyclepaths and public transport are far better investments than more roads. 9. Give priority for remaining oil & gas supplies to food production, essential services and indigenous communities, using the Smart-Card system. 10. Review the oil vulnerability of every industry and community sector and how each may reduce their risks.

  29. Australian petrol & diesel rationing using 2008 technology Smart-card based, scalable, tradeable, flexible, quick to change, equitable, transparent. Fuel allocations should be per person, not per vehicle, and depend on Location (inner or outer suburb, public transport access, regional or remote) Health status (elderly or infirm, expectant mothers with toddlers), less for the fit who can ride a bicycle 20kms if needed Job importance (defence, essential services, hospitals, food) People are encouraged to conserve by being able to trade unused allowances electronically and automatically. Martin Feldstein, Chief Economic Advisor to President Reagan, now at Harvard, (WSJ 2006) "tradeable gasoline rights are more efficient than fuel economy standards or gasoline taxes"

  30. "Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist." Metropolitan passenger travel Australia BTRE Other Gas Car Total Energy Usage Australia, 2000 ABARE Oil Coal Kenneth E. Boulding, economist 1910-1993

  31. ABARE's oil price forecasts have proven to be systematically low in normal times WTI US$/bbl

  32. Gb/year Efficiency Demand Growth World oil shortfall scenarios Transport mode shifts Pricing / taxes City design/lifestyle Past Production of Oil Other petroleum fuels gas, tar-sands Other fuels Deprivation, war Forecast Production 2009 • no single “Magic Bullet” solution, • probably no replacement ever for cheap plentiful oil • Urgent preparation and adjustment are vital

  33. “OK, it’s agreed – we announce that to do nothing is not an option and then we wait and see how things pan out”from ‘Private Eye’

  34. Other Gas Oil Coal Energy White Paper, 2003

  35. Government of Western Australia STATE LIQUID FUEL SHORTAGE EMERGENCY PLAN OPERATIONALPLAN PREPARED BY ENERGY SAFETY DIRECTORATE DEPARTMENT OF CONSUMER AND EMPLOYMENT PROTECTION 20 Southport Street, W Leederville WA 6007 Tel: (08) 9422 5200 Fax: (08) 9422 5244 January 2003 Current WA Government planning for a sudden fuel shortage Ineffective and inequitable. Odds & Even number plates etc Nothing significant about public transport

  36. discussion paper, Liquid Fuel Emergency Act review, 2004

  37. Perth domestic water prices per kilolitre 2008 Consumption range kilolitre/year Water Analogy for Fuel Pricing A personal fuel SmartCard system could tax petrol and diesel on a sliding scale like water. People could trade unused allocations to those who want more fuel. A rational pricing system Perth domestic water Renewable scarce resource

  38. There are innumerable “Perverse” subsidies FBT tax on cars as part of salary to roads, 4WDs profligate vehicle users heavy inefficient vehicles Supermarkets subsidise CO2 $18/tonne with their fuel dockets Supermarket petrol discounts People who walk to the supermarket are subsidising those who drive in the big SUVs

  39. Petrol taxes OECD € UK Au$ cents/litre 0.80 Korea 0.60 Australia 0.40 0.20 US 0.00 IEA Dec 2003

  40. The UK Fuel Tax Escalator Margaret Thatcher pence Nominal tax per litre (pence) 50 Real tax 40 30 20 10 0 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 Australian fuel taxes should be raised to European levels on a fuel tax escalator

  41. Australia US China

  42. Bicycles are powered by biofuel, renewable energy, either Weetbix or abdominal fat No shortage of either www.ASPO-Australia.org.Au

  43. Urban passenger mode shares Australia Car High automobile-dependence Public transport share is very low Potterton BTRE 2003

  44. Million barrels per day (equivalent) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2009

  45. Iran 10c/litre Venezuela 2c/l Jeff Rubin September 2007 Canadian Imperial Banking Corporation www.aspo-ireland.org/contentfiles/ASPO6/2-3_ASPO6_JRubin.pdf

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