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INSTITUTE OF ENERGY STRATEGY

INSTITUTE OF ENERGY STRATEGY. IES. The Global Prospects for Unconventional Gas Russian view. Alexey GROMOV PhD in Economic Geography Deputy General Director Institute of Energy Strategy, Moscow. Key challenges and risks for the Global Energy Sector. IES. 2. IES.

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INSTITUTE OF ENERGY STRATEGY

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  1. INSTITUTE OF ENERGY STRATEGY IES The Global Prospects for Unconventional Gas Russian view Alexey GROMOV PhD in Economic Geography Deputy General Director Institute of Energy Strategy, Moscow

  2. Key challenges and risks for the Global Energy Sector IES 2

  3. IES Energy Regionalization is more actual than Globalization Renewables in EU Oil Sands in Canada Non Conventional Energy Sources in China Lybia Shale Gas in the USA Energy Consumption Growth in China Oil of the Middle East LNG in Qatar Heavy Oil in Venezuela Oil extraction on Brazilian Offshore In case of global instability and high volatility of oil prices, the major energy importers try to develop their own sources of energy, including UNCONVENTIONAL sources

  4. “Golden Age” of Unconventional Gas is coming? • Unconventional gas • Shale Gas • Coal-Bed Methane • Tight Gas • Methan Hydrates • Biogas Former Soviet Union Asia-Pacific North America Latin America Europe 5

  5. IES Unconventional Gas resources are concentrated in the major energy importers countries

  6. IES Unconventional Gas can be cheaper than conventional gas…

  7. IES But “Unconventional Gas” Revolution happened only in the USA… Significant dependence on external supplies Regional Gas balances 2011

  8. IES Who’s next? Europe? China? The World?

  9. IES Future role of unconventional gas in Europe Shale Gas Unconventional gas in Europe can’t solve the problem of import dependence, but it will help to reduce it Sources: Institute of Energy Strategy

  10. IES The main restrictions of Unconventional Gas Revolution in Europe

  11. IES Europe: Not Unconventional Revolution but Energy Diversification Biofuels Own oil&gas production Renewables CCS Coal Biomass Unconventional Gas Geothermal Energy The main goal is to reduce the energy import

  12. IES Unconventional Gas: the main consequences for Russia Concurrence? Sales Market loss? decline of Russian Gas Industry?

  13. IES Reserves, resources and production of gas in Russia • Russia has a huge conventional resources to develop production of gas • Unconventional resources will not play significant role in the gas mix in 20 years Sources: Energy Strategy of Russia for the period up to 2030, Ministry of Natural Resources of Russia

  14. IES Export expectations vs. reality Factors of decrease in export expectations Russian Gas Export forecast up to period 2030 • Europe: • Competition growth • US: • refuse of future Russian LNG (the boom of shale gas production) • Asia-Pacific: • competition growth (Central Asia) 15-20% Risk of decrease in export on 15-20% 12

  15. IES Russia's natural gas exports to Europe will be stable Sources: Institute of Energy Strategy

  16. IES But Russian share in EU gas market will be continue to decline…

  17. Russia continue to lose price competition in Europe… doll. for barr. doll. per tcm NBP spot Russian gas at the Germany border Brent But spot prices will grow, also limiting demand

  18. IES Conclusion

  19. IES The Energy of the Future in our Hands Thank you for your attention www.energystrategy.ru Alexey GROMOV Deputy General Director Institute of Energy Strategy, Moscow

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