SUO Planning & Decision Aids

1. SUO Planning & Decision Aids Austin Tate, John Levine, Peter Jarvis, Jeff Dalton, AIAI, University of Edinburgh David Wilkins, Tom Lee, SRI International Pete Haglich, ISX (for SRI) • Capability to generate, refine, select, communicate, execute and repair plans across multiple echelons from company level to platoon and squad level. • Two examples of Planning & Decision Aid use: • one offensive (MOUT); • one defensive (Halt an Attack in Restrictive Terrain).

2. SUO/PDA Preliminary Workplan Dec98--->Mar99 Apr99----------->Jun99 Jul99------------->Dec99 Jan00--->Mar00 Phase 1: Familiarization & Domain Modeling Phase 2: Demo Storyboard, Concept Proofs & Further Domain Modeling Phase 3: System Adaptation & Demo Production Phase 4: Transfer Of Results

3. Basic Planning Techniques Plans are doctrinally correct and of uniform high quality The underlying plan representations must be done correctly to support the desired command and control loop Planner Plan:Actions&Constraints Situation Resources Constraints Objectives Advice Actions SOPs System Monitor working with the Commander Soldiers and Sensors in the Field (Apply SOPs) Rapidly respond to events, changing actions and reallocating resources, comms. to other echelons if necessary

4. Potential Technical Contributions to Draw On • Overall management of the command, planning and control process steps to improve coordination. • Situation dependent option filtering (sometimes reducing the choices normally open to one “obvious” one [Klein p.17-18]. • Satisficing search to find the first suitable plan that meets the essential criteria [Klein p. 20]. • Anytime algorithms which seek to improve on the best previous solution if time permits. • Expansion of a high level abstract plan into greater detail where necessary.

5. Potential Technical Contributions to Draw On • High level “chunks” of procedural knowledge (SOP, TTP) at a human scale [Klein p. 52]. • Retain a high level overview. [Klein, p.227] “Include only the detail necessary to establish a plan is possible – do not fall into the trap of choreographing each of their movements”]. • Analysis of potential interactions as plans are expanded or developed [Klein p 53]. • Identification of problems, flaws and issues with the plan [Klein p. 63 & 71]. • Establishment of a space of alternative options based on different assumptions [Klein p. 23]. • Monitoring of the execution of events as they are expected to happen within the plan, watching for deviations (often ahead of problem) [Klein p. 32].

6. Potential Technical Contributions to Draw On • AI planning techniques represent the dynamic state of the world at points in the plan and can be used for “mental simulation” of the plan [Klein p. 45]. • Pruning of choices according to given requirements or constraints [Klein p. 94 “singular strategy”]. • Heuristic evaluation and prioritisation of multiple possible choices within the constraint search space [Klein p. 94]. • Repair of plans while respecting plan structure and intentions. • Uniform use of a common plan representation with embedded rationale to improve plan quality, shared understanding, etc.

7. Long-term Contributions of PDA to the Soldier • Shared plan representations cognisant of military principles, doctrine, SOPs and TTPs. Makes possible: • Doctrinally correct plans usable by everyone. • Fast generation of multiple distinct COAs, including ones the commander may not have considered. • Support commander creativity through human guidance. • Uniformly high plan quality, even during high-stress crises. • Continuous analysis of the plan using multiple metrics. • Monitor plan execution and respond quickly to events, helping the commander modify the plan appropriately. • Provide relevant information to other echelons, allowing fast communication while preserving bandwidth.

8. Technical Contributions by SRI/AIAI to SUO • Contribution to the representation of shared objectives, plans, processes, SOPs and TTPs in SUO. • Generation of multiple qualitatively distinct alternative COAs dependent upon alternative assumptions and advice about the situation. • Support for mixed-initiative incremental plan development, manipulation and use. • Situation-dependant plan repair as situation changes. • Systems integration framework for modular planning and plan analysis systems. • Management of planning and execution process - promotion of intelligent process management and workflow concepts.

9. SUO/PDA Input to SUO/SAS Program • Aim is to communicate and transfer some of the relevant results of the ARPI/PDA work to SUO. • To do this by joining in the SUO Community and understanding its requirements. • To demonstrate some appropriate and relevant Advanced Planning & Decision Aids Technology. • To be helpful to the contracting team(s). • AIAI/SRI want to act as a conduit to the work of others where they can see its potential relevance.

10. Context wrt FM 7-10 & FM 7-20 Processes • FM 7-20 The Infantry Battalion, FM 7-10 The Infantry Rifle Company and FM 7-8 The Infantry Rifle Platoon and Squad - Command and Control - Augmented by Respective Military Training Plans (MTPs) • Suggested as a point of comparison by Jim Madden, IDA • Context of diagram is an overall process involving perhaps several COAs and a command, planning, communication, execution and control process. • Diagram covers core part from FM 7-10 of situation assessment and COA generation (relevant to SUO/SAS and SUO/PDA activities)

11. Conduct METT-T Analysis Formulate Assumptions & Deductions Develop Course of Action Mission (Assigned) Determine the decisive point where the enemy is most vulnerable. Ideally, where an enemy weakness is or where the enemy will be positioned at a time when the battalion can generate overwhelming combat power against the enemy • Next higher commanders con-cept of operations and intent? • Subunit tasks • Unit tasks • What is the unit’s purpose within the higher commander’s intent? • Which tasks allow the unit to accomplish its purpose? • Specified? • Implied? • Limitations? • What are the enemy’s most probable courses of action give the terrain and his probable objectives? • Where will contact first occur and how will enemy be arrayed? • What are probably enemy weaknesses and vulnerabilities? Determine what supporting efforts are needed by asking the question, “What else must be done to allow the main effort to succeed?” Enemy • Composition? • Disposition? • Strength? • Significant activities? • Peculiarities and weaknesses? • Enemy capabilities? • Enemy probable courses of action? Determine purposes to be achieved by main and supporting efforts by linking the the main effort’s purpose directly to the battalion’s purpose and the supporting efforts’ purposes directly to the main purpose • How do terrain/weather factors affect the soldiers/subunits? • How do terrain/weather factors effect placement of weapons? • Where can commander focus his combat power to accomplish his mission? Terrain/Weather Analysis Receive Mission Determine essential task(s) for subordinate units (main and supporting efforts) to achieve the purposes stated above • Obstacles? • Avenues of approach? • Key terrain? • Observation and fields of fire? • Cover and concealment? • Weather? • Other characteristics? Identify type of forces required to accomplish the mission, considering only organic and attached units. Weigh the main effort; take more risk in non-main effort areas (economy of force) Do not consider assets such as CAS or FRASCAM, which may be unavailable during execution. Determine essential task(s) for subordinate units (main and supporting efforts) to achieve the purposes stated above Troops • Composition? • Disposition? • Strength? • Significant activities? • Peculiarities and weaknesses? • How can unit’s strength be focused on enemy weaknesses? • How can commander make his best use of is combat power given the current status of his units? Assign control measures to clarify respon-sibilities and synchronize the efforts of subordinates to support the main effort. Allow as much freedom of effort as possible Time Available • LD time/Defend no later time? • Time to begin movement? • Time available to plan? • Time available to prepare? • Time available to rehearse? • Time available for reconnaissance? Prepare a COA statement and sketch to enhance clarity. The sketch should show the3 maneuver aspects of the COA What are the critical time aspects of the operation?

12. Overall Process from Receipt of Mission to Success In Advance During Mission After Action Deliberative Planning & Rehearsal En-route Rehearsal & Replanning Low Tempo Adaptation & Plan Repair High Tempo Monitoring & Plan Selection After Action Planning & Support Opportunities for PDA Support in SUO

13. More Detailed Slides If Required

14. ARPI DARPA ARPI/PDA Goal, Themes & Participants GOAL:Develop, demonstrate, and transition advanced knowledge-based technology for automatic and interactive planning, scheduling, and decision making to allow better, faster planning in complex, stressed situations Modeling Simulation & Evaluation Workflow Management & Process Control Integrated Planning & Scheduling Planning Under Uncertainty KB Planning Systems Representation & Intelligent KB Case-Based Planning ISTI Brown University ISX CMU USC/ISI U. Edinburgh U. Mass Kestrel CMU U. Edinburgh GE CRD Rockwell Int’l SRI Arizona St. University Northwestern University MITRE MCC U Washington U. Rochester Loral U. Maryland UCLA U Wisconsin Honeywell U Oregon Klein BBN

15. SUO Planning & Decision Aids Use results of DARPA/AFRL Planning Initiative (ARPI) and Planning & Decision Aids (PDA) work Multi-Agent Planning Architecture (MPA) and O-Plan Systems Integration Architecture SIPE-2 and O-Plan Generative Planners Mixed Initiative Planning Aids Planning Domain Knowledge Acquisition Tools/Editors Plan Repair Algorithms Planning Process Panels Rich Shared Plan Representations SUO/PDA Objective Demonstrate capability to generate, refine, select, communicate, execute and repair plans across multiple echelons from company level to platoon and squad level relevant to SUO/SAS environment. Two examples of COA plan generation and use: - one offensive (MOUT); - one defensive (Halt an Attack in Restrictive Terrain). Schedule Advanced Planning Technology • 1QCY99 - Domain familiarization. Domain modeling. Create initial • plan and activity templates for offensive and defensive scenarios. • 2QCY99 - SUO Scenario and storyboard/demo script • development. Walk through of technology requirements, • mockup of non-working parts. Produce demo script and • scenarios. • 3QCY99 - Technology and demonstration development first pass, • mock demonstration. • 4QCY99 - Full demonstration development. • 1QCY00 - Transition and communication of results to SUO • contractor. Refinement of demonstration and technology. • Integration of further modules to support more effective • demonstrations.

16. SUO/PDA Provisional Coordination Plan Agreed with ITT/SRI Contracting Team • 1-Jul-99 Kick-off with delivery of SUO/PDA AIAI Phase 2 Report • 30-Sep-99 Comments on scenario from ITT/SRI to SUO/PDA, agreement on SUO/SAS state descriptions used in scenario • 31-Dec-99 SUO/PDA Demonstration • 1-Jan-00 Technology Transfer Phase - Joint Work • 31-Mar-00 ITT/SRI Team show link between SUO/SAS and SUO/PDA Demonstration. • ------------- end of current SUO/PDA project ------------------ • 1-Jan-00 Possible start on SUO/PDA Phase 3 Option • 31-Dec-00 ITT/SRI SUO/PDA Deliverable • 30-Jun-01 End of SUO Technology Transfer Phase

17. Modeller or Knowledge Engineer Army CALL Bulletins Doctrine, SOP, TTP Process Modelling Methods & Tools Subject Matter Experts Domain Model Activity Templates & Constraints SUO/PDA Preliminary Systems SketchKnowledge Acquisition Stage

18. Echelon N-1 Planning & Execution System Echelon N-1 Planning Related Modules Company Level OPORD FRAGO Reports Other Modules Echelon N Planning & Execution System Echelon N Planning Related Modules Platoon Level OPORD FRAGO Reports Other Modules Echelon N+1 Planning & Execution System Echelon N+1 Planning Related Modules Fire Team Level Domain Model Activity Templates & Constraints SUO/PDA Preliminary Systems SketchPlanning & Decision Aids Use Stage

19. Echelon N-1 Planning & Execution System Echelon N-1 Planning Related Modules Company Level OPORD FRAGO Reports Other Modules Echelon N Planning & Execution System Echelon N Planning Related Modules Platoon Level OPORD FRAGO Reports Other Modules Echelon N+1 Planning & Execution System Echelon N+1 Planning Related Modules Fire Team Level Domain Model Activity Templates & Constraints SUO/PDA Preliminary System SketchInstantiation of Components E.g., ModSAF, Sextant, Blue/Red Force Laydown E.g., MPA, SIPE-2, O-Plan, ACP3 E.g., Act Editor, CPF E.g., Plan Sketch Tool E.g., Web O-Plan, O-P3

20. Example of SRI ARPI/PDA WorkGiving Advice to a Planner • Heuristic search algorithm • plans quickly • maintains all constraints Integrating human judgement fixes many shortcomings of automated planning technology Actions One Might Take Commander’s Guidance State of the World SIPE-2 Planner Objectives Advice PLAN: Action Structure Beliefs, Resources, Constraints Operators Actions Goals SIPE-2 Execution Monitor and Replanner • Advice: • qualitatively different COAs • “directed” search of options

21. CONCEPT NEW IDEAS • Using domain constraints to support the coordinated development of plans. • Communication between users acting as Task Assigner and Planner. • Intelligent workflow model of planning based on “issue” handling (agenda/to-do list). • Simplified planner interfaces to allow ”plug and plan” component integration. • Uniform manipulation of plans as a set of constraints (<I-N-OVA> model). COA-1 COA-2 Planning Workflow World View Option: COA-2 Criteria 1 Phase: Deployment Criteria 2 ... Criteria 3 ... Order Issued: .. Plan View Option COA-2 Authority: ... Task Direction & Plan Analysis Plan Development & Refinement Task Assigner Planner IMPACT MILESTONES (1996-98) • MIP Demonstration in Pacifica NEO • Initial Evaluation Matrix • Demonstration scenario development Q4/Y1 • Generation of multiple qualitatively distinct alternative COAs dependent upon alternative assumptions concerning the emerging crisis. • Support for mixed-initiative incremental plan development, manipulation and use. • Promotion of intelligent process management and workflow concepts. • Integration framework for large-scale modular planning systems. • Contribution to shared plan representations. • Workflow Planning Aid Experiments • TIE with Rochester on Tasking • Release of O-Plan Version 3.1 • Evaluation Experiments Interim Report Q4/Y2 • Mixed Initiative Planning Demo. • TIE with USC/ISI on plan evaluation • Release of O-Plan Version 3.2 • Final Evaluation Report Q4/Y3 Example of AIAI ARPI/PDA WorkEdinburgh O-Plan Project