Major Economic and Workforce Trends for the Coming Decade-

1. Major Economic and Workforce Trends for the Coming Decade- Bob Uhlenkott AGA Lunch – May 19, 2011

3. Gross Domestic Product (Recessions, Productivity and Quality of Life)

4. Tale of the Tape for Idaho’s Economy September - 2007 By Dennis Cauchon Which state has the fastest-growing economy? It's Idaho, thriving quietly! • Idaho’s total jobs peaked in June 2007 at 669,500. • Idaho’s low occurred in January 2010 at 583,400. • December 2010 published estimate is about 602,000. • Record Year-Over-Year job losses of around 48,300. • Total losses just over 58,000 recorded throughout 2010.

5. The “REAL” or “TRUE” Rate of Unemployment!

6. Alternative Measures for Labor Underutilization • U-1, persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, as a percent of the civilian labor force; • U-2, job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs, as a percent of the civilian labor force; • U-3, total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (this is the definition used for the official unemployment rate); • U-4, total unemployed plus discouraged workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus discouraged workers; • U-5, total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all other marginally attached workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers; and • U-6, total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers.

7. Unemployment Rates - 2010 Annual Averages Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Idaho Department of Labor - March 2011

11. Tale of the Tape for Idaho’s Economy September - 2007 By Dennis Cauchon Which state has the fastest-growing economy? It's Idaho, thriving quietly! • Idaho’s total jobs peaked in June 2007 at 669,500. • Idaho’s low occurred in January 2010 at 583,400. • December 2010 published estimate is about 602,000. • Record Year-Over-Year job of losses of around 48,300. • Total losses just over 58,000 recorded throughout 2010.

17. Pre-recession Levels near the end of 2013 or early 2014 Y-O-Y Gains

18. Y-O-Y Gains Pre-recession levels at the earliest around 2025

19. Modeling an optimistic economic scenario purports year-over-year job increases in the fall of 2010 or spring of 2011. • However, regaining all the jobs lost in the recent recession will not occur until late 2013 or early 2014. • For industries like construction pre-recession levels are not expected to be reached until the latter half of the next decade.

20. What are the three major factors that will shape our work force, economy and quality of life in Idaho

21. Three major factors that will shape our work force, economy and quality of life in Idaho • Population / In-migration • The Great Demographic Shift • Education and Training

22. Factors driving healthcare and other industry and occupational growth #1 Shifting demographic - Aging baby boomers - Everyone is living longer - Technology keeps us alive longer #3 With longer lives come health problems (Healthcare Industry) #4 Net in-migration made up of many retirees #5 Low cost of living #6 Competitive business costs

23. Idaho’s Long-Term Employment Outlook • Following the current recession employment in Idaho is projected to increase more than 15 percent over the next decade. • If annual job replacements are also taken into account, job openings will rise to more than 28,000 annually.

26. Frequency of the Jobs Unskilled Skilled Professional

30. Inverse Relationship between Education and Unemployment

32. Idaho Department of Labor – March 2011

38. Demographic Shifts (Percentage Growth) Over the Next Decade in Idaho

39. State of Idaho Aging Work Force

40. North Central Idaho - Region 2 Aging Work Force

41. 2005, 2007 and 2009 What percent of employers offer health insurance to their employees*? Single Coverage *Full Time Employees Only

42. Median Pay is about $26.00 per hour in Boise MSA (Accountants and Auditors 13-2011) - Examine, analyze, and interpret accounting records for the purpose of giving advice or preparing statements. Install or advise on systems of recording costs or other financial and budgetary data.

43. Bottom 16 States Top 10 States

44. Concentration

45. $$$$$$ Pay $$$$$$$

46. Thanks for your time! Bob Uhlenkott Bob.uhlenkott@labor.idaho.gov 208.332.3570 ext-3217