1 / 33

The Impact of Key Economic Trends on the NH Workforce

The Impact of Key Economic Trends on the NH Workforce. Ross Gittell James R. Carter Professor Whittemore School of Business & Economics University of New Hampshire. How are we doing……. NH – Strong Performance Last 2 Decades Current Economy: Tentative Recovery in US and NH

nitesh
Download Presentation

The Impact of Key Economic Trends on the NH Workforce

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. The Impact of Key Economic Trends on the NH Workforce Ross Gittell James R. Carter Professor Whittemore School of Business & Economics University of New Hampshire

  2. How are we doing…….. • NH – Strong Performance Last 2 Decades • Current Economy: • Tentative Recovery in US and NH • Uncertainty (e.g., stock market, possible war) • When will business capital investment and high tech and manufacturing recover (mid-2003??) • NH is not alone….. • The Outlook • NH’s Entrepreneurial & high tech businesses have experience and expertise in responding to changing market opportunities and recovering • NH expected to continue to be the strongest economy in region (New England Economic Project)

  3. Summary: New England & NH Strengths and Weaknesses

  4. Knowledge Jobs (aggregate measure, PPI, 2002) includes information technology jobs in non-IT fields

  5. Education Advantages translate into high output per worker across industries in region

  6. NH Ranks #1 in Concentration of High Tech Manufacturing, 2/3rds of NH high tech employment is in manufacturing compared to a little over 1/3rd nationally

  7. SOUTHERN NH Semiconductor & other electronic component mfg Nav, measuring, medical, control instruments mfg Full-service restaurants Software publishers Service industry machinery mfg Employment services Offices of physicians General medical hospitals Grocery stores Insurance carriers Other fab metal product mfg Business schools & computer & mgt training NORTHERN NH Pulp, paper & paperboard mills Sawmills & wood preservation Traveler accommodation Full-service restaurants RV parks & recreational camps General medical hospitals Outpatient care centers Offices of physicians Grocery stores General purp. machinery mfg Individual & family services Electronic shopping & mail-order houses Limited-service eating places Southern and Northern NH differences in Leading Industries

  8. The Golden Triangle……economic growth has been concentrated in the southeastern part of NH • The “Golden Triangle” and Seacoast have led the NH economy • Seacoast (Rockingham County) led the 100 counties in US Coastal “boom” (from Texas to Maine) in gross state product growth 1993-2000 (+39%) • One of few areas with strong employment growth (+19%) and also total output/product growth well above growth in employment • ….there is a unique dynamic in the Seacoast

  9. Yet…during late 1990s tech “boom” NH ranked only 36th of 50 states in high tech employment growth, grew below US ave & less than competitor states…this resulted in decline in AeA rank from 1st to 3rd • From Q1-98 to Q1-01 Percentage Change in High Technology Employment • NH 7.6% (ranked 36th highest among 50 states) • Compared to US ave of 18% and • CO 22%, VA 19%, CA 17.6% • NY 13.3%, PA 11.4%, MA 11.3%

  10. Unemployment in NH (well below US ave) and tight labor market in MA limited high tech growth in NH, relatively low unemployment continues

  11. NH High Technology Industry has held up pretty well during the recession. In the late 1990s a leader in New England but lagged behind leading Tech States

  12. For example in NH…3 MSAs have relatively strong economies.. different from extreme boom-bust in Silicon Valley

  13. During the recent economic downturn NH’s economy has performed better than US average and better than other high tech leaders • Total Employment Decline March 01 to July 02… • NH less than 1% (-.8%) and below US average (-1.3%) • Less of a decline than • CO nearly 3% • MA over 2%

  14. High tech employment in NH decline started Q1 2001 (lagged decline elsewhere)..since then employment decline is less steep in NH than MA & CO but above US average

  15. Layoffs in NH concentrated in high tech manufacturing .. 50% of layoffs

  16. Steepest Decline in Manufacturing in Manchester and Portsmouth MSAs, decline greater than other tech centers

  17. Some signs that decline and layoffs are slowing down..but a lot of uncertainty, mixed signals and slow growth anticipated • Year to date 2002 layoff notifications in NH (NH DRED, Oct 2002) • 78 layoffs, 27 closures, 3,667 permanently laid off • September 2002 • 5, 2 and 206

  18. WORKFORCE ISSUES: Current situation…the 2001 employment picture for graduates • Relatively strong fields include: • technology jobs in health care (from technician to software engineer) • computer maintenance and services • wireless technology (m-commerce) • electrical, mechanical, and computer engineering • A complicated technology employment outlook ... On one hand, it is bleak, yet the numbers indicate there are job opportunities

  19. What about the future...BLS Projections for the US • Information on 2000 and projected 2010 occupational employment developed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics • Part of Occupational Employment Projections Program • Data derived from 2000-10 National Employment Matrix • The information presented part of 2002-2003 edition of Occupational Projections and Training Data. • Data and projections are available on the BLS website: http://data.bls.gov/oep/noeted/empoptd.jsp

  20. Occupations with Largest Increases Over Next Decade in Employment for US workers with Bachelors+

  21. But there is a declining relevance of traditional definitions and categories • Occupational & Industry categories and definitions and categories are increasingly less relevant and useful in human capital development and higher education • people change occupations and careers multiple times during their lifetime • there are no longer “traditional” industries ..industries are constantly changing • have to move away from thinking of preparing workers for particular industries or occupations

  22. Keys for Workforce • Portfolio of competencies • need for workers to develop range of capabilities • and add to portfolio over time • “Execution” Skills • problem solve • work with others • deliver a product or service that meets a specific (but ever changing) societal or market need • business planning • Attitude and capability to change and continuously learn

  23. ...in support of new industries and careers • Workers/Business Owners in NH in the 21st Century in many respects will have to increasingly create and then re-create their own occupations, industries and businesses • The challenge for economic developers is to provide the infrastructure support and environment to help workers and businesses develop the capacity and competencies to create new industries and businesses

  24. Industry opportunities thinking beyond BioTech: Industries in which technology can be used to solve problems • “Big” Problems • National Defense & Homeland Security • Health Care • Energy (efficiency and alternative sources) • The Environment & Public Health • Transportation (e.g., the Segway) • Air Quality (e.g., AIRMAP project at UNH) • “Small” Problems • Business applications • Government (public policies, “e-Government”) • Non-profits (management and service delivery)

  25. The Defense Industry... evidence of a coming increase in defense spending & employment • Congress has passed appropriations bills for tens of billions of dollars in new defense spending • Investment analysts project that the defense budget will grow a staggering $200 billion, to $500 billion by 2005 • Pentagon has asked private companies and universities to propose a broad array of technologies that can help America “sniff out terrorists”

  26. Defense & Homeland Security Related Opportunities • In the short term... the main increase will be for established weapons systems… e.g., missiles & helicopters.. • Longer term, there will be need for “smarter” military systems designed for special operations and the war against terrorism • There will be increased need for scientists and engineers developing and implementing the new systems and their commercial “spin-offs”

  27. New Industries ...Beyond Defense & Homeland Security: • Photonics.. Replacing electronics in technology and other applications • Software systems that can be used in a wide range of integrative applications e.g., environmental sciences, health care, large database system management. • Optical computer (OptIPuter) focusing on problems in the earth sciences and neurosciences • Using computers to monitor vast radar maps and create public warning systems for earthquakes • In neurosciences ...mapping the human brain at a level of resolution well beyond the limits of today's technology

  28. What can be done to promote the NH economy (some thoughts) • Take advantage of unique mix (diverse economy) ..high tech, manufacturing, professional services, retail and tourism • Leverage strengths in tourism-related industries (recreational and other amenities/magnets) to recruit entrepreneurs and other types of firms in other industries • Leverage strengths in high tech (and local spending power) to diversify and upgrade value-added in tourism and retail

  29. What can be done to promote NH economy (some thoughts) • Position NH as the Entrepreneurial state in the region... • An emphasis on Entrepreneurship reflects the general business strength and activity in the state • In the late 1990s Entrepreneurial activity was concentrated in “e”lectronic-related-activities… but that has changed with technological and market opportunities

  30. High Tech NH: Creative DestructionFrom the slowdown seeds for the future • Many leading high tech companies were birthed during economic downcycles (e.g., US-Microsoft, NH-companies include BottomLine and DEC “alumni” start-ups) • NH businesses and entrepreneurs seem to excel at rapid response to new market opportunities • In the late 1990s business opportunities were concentrated in software & Internet-related… in the future..photonics, environmental and medical technology, instrumentation and equipment, biotechnology and new “unknown” industries

  31. What can be done to promote the economy (some more thoughts) • Position the state and cities in the state to attract corporate headquarters (e.g., Apogent) and financial and professional services (e.g. legal, management & engineering services) • Recruit & retain engineering and design oriented manufacturers that supply OEMs globally • The “Selling Points” include: • access to Boston and Route 495 and 128 • skilled workforce • transportation node (including air transport) • quality of life

More Related