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Coastal Wave – Surge Modeling

Coastal Wave – Surge Modeling. NW NE SW SE. R. Luettich, J . Fleming, B. Blanton, C. Kaiser , Jie Gao. Project Overview Advance the state of the art in coupled wave – surge – inundation modeling Use state of the art in coupled wave – surge – inundation modeling to meet operational needs

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Coastal Wave – Surge Modeling

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  1. Coastal Wave – Surge Modeling NWNE SWSE R. Luettich, J. Fleming, B. Blanton, C. Kaiser, Jie Gao

  2. Project Overview • Advance the state of the art in coupled wave – surge – inundation modeling • Use state of the art in coupled wave – surge – inundation modeling to meet operational needs • Disseminate / train community in the state of the art in coupled wave – surge – inundation modeling. • Project Relevance to DHS S&T Mission/Impact of Project • Risk determination and delineation - FEMA National Flood Insurance Program • Event based forecasting – partnership with NHC / NWS – Irene, Isaac, Sandy • Initial post storm damage estimates • Training exercises

  3. Technical Approach • ADCIRC + SWAN + ancillary support models • ADCIRC Surge Guidance System – ASGS • “ADCIRC Bootcamp” • NetCDF, OpenDAP, Thredds, data standards / Matlab tools • CERA website + outreach to EMs + moble apps

  4. Progress to Date • Development of ADCIRC+SWAN grids for NC and other US East Coast areas • Evaluation of ADCIRC+SWAN with historical storms for NC FEMA NFIP study • NC SLR pilot study • Development of ADCIRC Surge Guidance System – automates forecast process, portable, robust, includes riverine forecast input • Identification / adoption of data standards within ADCIRC+SWAN for interoperability & tools to access / visualize results • Improvements to parametric wind model

  5. Observed High Water Marks Vs. Maximum Water Elevation from H*Wind (m)

  6. Observed High Water Marks Vs. Maximum Water Elevation from OWI Wind (m)

  7. Observed High Water Marks Vs. Maximum Water Elevation from Asymmetric Vortex Gradient Wind (m)

  8. Progress to Date • Development of ADCIRC+SWAN grids for NC and other US East Coast areas • Evaluation of ADCIRC+SWAN with historical storms for NC FEMA NFIP study • NC SLR pilot study • Development of ADCIRC Surge Guidance System – automates forecast process, portable, robust, includes riverine forecast input • Identification / adoption of data standards within ADCIRC+SWAN for interoperability & tools to access / visualize results • Improvements to parametric wind model • PRIME TIME USE • Hurricanes Irene (2011) ~ 30 forecasts (1 for each advisory over > 1 week) • Isaac (2012) ~ 300 forecasts, 4 grids, 4 computer systems, multi-storm ensemble • Sandy (2012)~ 50 forecasts, 3 grids, 2 meteorological model ensemble • Documented impacts from USCG, USACE, NHC, SDMI,

  9. Progress to Date • Development of ADCIRC+SWAN grids for NC and other US East Coast areas • Evaluation of ADCIRC+SWAN with historical storms for NC FEMA NFIP study • NC SLR pilot study • Development of ADCIRC Surge Guidance System – automates forecast process, portable, robust, includes riverine forecast input • Identification / adoption of data standards within ADCIRC+SWAN for interoperability & tools to access / visualize results • Improvements to parametric wind model • PRIME TIME USE • Hurricanes Irene (2011) ~ 30 forecasts (1 for each advisory over > 1 week) • Isaac (2012) ~ 300 forecasts, 4 grids, 4 computer systems, multi-storm ensemble • Sandy (2012)~ 50 forecasts, 3 grids, 2 meteorological model ensemble • Documented impacts from USCG, USACE, NHC, SDMI, • 3 annual “ADCIRC Bootcamps” (25 – 35 attendees / year)

  10. ADCIRC Bootcamp 2012

  11. Current Translation Activities and End Users • FEMA NFIP study – various working groups • ADCIRC bootcamp • NC-CERA.RENI.ORG / CERA.CCT.LSU.EDU websites • ADCIRC_Viz • Briefings for USCG, USACE, NHC, public media Products • Numerous publications and presentations • NC FEMA NFIP reports • NC-CERA.RENI.ORG / CERA.CCT.LSU.EDU websites

  12. Looking Forward • Careful evaluation of ADCIRC+SWAN modeling system for recent storms • Enhancements to parametric wind model – see Jie Gao poster • Expansion of groups running ASGS around US and integration of results from multiple sources • HURRICANE SANDY

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