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Climate change and North Sea storm surge extremes - an ensemble study (PRUDENCE)

Climate change and North Sea storm surge extremes - an ensemble study (PRUDENCE). Katja Woth & Hans von Storch Institute for Coastal Research GKSS Research Center Geesthacht, Germany. Institute for Coastal Research GKSS, Germany. Assessing ongoing change of coastal climate.

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Climate change and North Sea storm surge extremes - an ensemble study (PRUDENCE)

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  1. Climate change and North Sea storm surge extremes - an ensemble study (PRUDENCE) Katja Woth & Hans von Storch Institute for Coastal Research GKSS Research Center Geesthacht, Germany

  2. Institute for Coastal ResearchGKSS, Germany • Assessing ongoing change of coastal climate. • Deriving scenarios of plausible, possible futures of coastal climates. • Special emphasis on wind-related aspects, i.e., wind force, storm surges and ocean waves. • Special emphasis on North Sea and Baltic Sea. • Participant in HIPOCAS, PRUDENCE and ENSEMBLES.

  3. NCEP Globale Reanalysen ( 210 km x 210 km )1958 - 2002 BAW - TELEMAC 2DWasserstand und barotrope Strömung 21.02.1993 12 UTC REMO Windgeschwindigkeit und Richtung 21.02.1993 12 UTC HIPOCAS:Für Rekonstruktionen verwendete Modellkette Gebiet hier: Nordsee und östlicher Nordatlantik WAM sig. Wellenhöhe und Richtung 21.02.1993 12 UTC Auflösung etwa 50 x 50 km Auflösung zwischen etwa 100 m und 5km Auflösung etwa 5 x 5 km

  4. Climate risk assessments done with these models • Reconstruction of past and ongoing state and change • PCPnP futures(PCPnP = plausible, consistent, possible but not necessarily probable = scenarios)

  5. Comparison of wind speed statistics with in-situ data: RCM is skillful in describing marine wind statistics Not assimilated into NCEP (Ionic Sea)

  6. External Forcing – Future Scenarios

  7. EU-Project PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects) GCM RCMs • RegionalClimate Models: • CLM- REMO- HIRHAM- RCAO Global Climate Model (HadAM3) IPCC A2 SRES Scenario(1961-1990 / 2071-2100) today today Storm SurgeModel forthe North Sea: - TRIM 3D Impact model Impact scenarios scenario scenario global local scale

  8. A2 - CTL: changes in 99 % - iles of wind speed (6 hourly, DJF): west wind sector selected(247.5 to 292.5 deg) HIRHAM RCAO REMO5 CLM

  9. Projections for the future / surge meteorological forcing: HIRHAM / RCA Differencesin inter-annual percentiles of surge/ A2 - CTL: RCA Differences in inter-annual percentiles of surge/ A2 - CTL: HIRHAM

  10. Mean change of winter 95%ile surge levels Near coastal model cells

  11. According to scenario A2 and the specific set of GCM / RCMs, water level may rise in extreme situations by as much as 40 cm + 30 cm = 70 cm along the German North Sea coast. IPCC, 2001 SREs emission scenarios: Impact on global sea level

  12. Conclusions • Dynamical models have been demonstrated to be a useful tool to describe the statistics, and changes thereof, of wind-related phenomena in coastal seas – wind force, storm surge, coastal currents and ocean waves. • An ensemble of regionalizations, derived from one global A2 scenario, results in rather similar changes of regional wind over the North sea and the associated change of surge levels. • Along the German North Sea coast, water levels may rise by up to 70 cm - of which 40 cm are due to mean sea level rise and 30 cm to different storm patterns.

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