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The Challenges of the International Climate Negotiations and the Belgian EU Presidency

The Challenges of the International Climate Negotiations and the Belgian EU Presidency. Sebastian Oberth ür. Content. UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol Structure of a post-2012 agreement Contents of a post-2012 agreement Status and prospects of negotiations

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The Challenges of the International Climate Negotiations and the Belgian EU Presidency

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  1. The Challenges of the International Climate Negotiations and the Belgian EU Presidency Sebastian Oberthür

  2. Content • UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol • Structure of a post-2012 agreement • Contents of a post-2012 agreement • Status and prospects of negotiations • Implications for the Belgian EU Presidency Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009

  3. 1. UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol • 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) • 1997 Kyoto Protocol (industrialised countries emission targets) • 2001/2005 Marrakesh Accords: the Kyoto Protocol’s rule book (Kyoto market mechanisms, reporting and review, sinks/forests, compliance) Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009

  4. 2. Structure of post-2012 agreement • Protocol track: negotiations on a second commitment period under the KP (since 2005) • Convention track: negotiations on long-term cooperative action on climate change under UNFCCC (Bali Action Plan, 2007) • Challenges: • 1 Protocol, 2 Protocols, else? • What happens to the KP and the Marrakesh Accords? Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009

  5. 3. Contents of post-2012 agreement (1) EU objectives • Limiting global temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels (1996) • Global GHG emissions need to peak by 2020 and decrease by at least 50% from 1990 level by 2050 • GHG emissions of developed countries to be reduced by 25-40% by 2020 and 80-95% by 2050 (baseline 1990) • GHG emissions of more advanced developing countries to be reduced by 15-30% below Business-As-Usual by 2020 Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009

  6. 3. Contents of post-2012 agreement (2) • Overarching: What level of ambition? How much differentiation between developed and developing countries? • Developed countries • Kyoto-type emission targets? Comparability? • Kyoto-type reporting and review system? • Treatment of sinks? • Kyoto-type compliance system? Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009

  7. 3. Contents of post-2012 agreement (3) • Developing countries • “Nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs)” • What and how (nature, governance, link to financing)? • Reporting and review Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009

  8. 3. Contents of post-2012 agreement (4) • Financing • How much and from which sources (public, private/markets, new/innovative mechanisms)? • How much for what (mitigation, adaptation, technology transfer, forests)? • Governance: which institutions and procedures, which new funds (if any), who decides? Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009

  9. 3. Contents of post-2012 agreement (5) • Adaptation • Technology development and transfer • Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) • Emissions from international transport • Reform of existing and establishment of new market mechanisms (sectoral mechanisms) • Capacity building, institutions/procedures, etc. Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009

  10. 3. Contents of post-2012 agreement (6) • Challenges: • How to achieve agreement on broad concepts and principled matters? • How to elaborate and agree on more detailed implementing rules? Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009

  11. 4. Status/prospects of negotiations • KP track: detailed proposals, but no agreement – structure of future agreement? • Convention track: • a lot of negotiating text(s) • Moving towards definition of broad political concepts (leaving detailed legal texts and implementing rules to be elaborated later) • Unclear link with/role of KP and Marrakesh Accords Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009

  12. 4. Status/prospects of negotiations (2) • A Copenhagen Agreement is still possible, although by no means certain. • In any event, Copenhagen will require a substantial follow-up (timeline uncertain). Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009

  13. 5. Belgian Presidency (1) The role of the EU Presidency • EU spokesperson in international climate negotiations (COP, CMP, subsidiary bodies) • Main EU representative in external climate policy in general (heading the EU Troika) • Chairing of responsible Council Working Party: leading and brokering of internal agreement (Council Conclusions and position papers) • Chairing of various Council expert groups under the Working Party Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009

  14. 5. Belgian Presidency (2) Scenarios for 2010 • In any event, international climate policy and negotiations will remain at the top of the international agenda. • Intensity not completely clear yet, but it is likely to be more than is scheduled so far. • Scope of internal discussions dependent on international progress: moving to 30%? Financing? Forests? …? Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009

  15. 5. Belgian Presidency (3) • Managing EU external climate policy will constitute a major task of the Belgian EU Presidency in 2010. • Successful execution of this task will require advancing preparations and investing the necessary resources NOW: • Exact needs assessment and strategy for dealing with different scenarios • Pooling/activation/coordination of resources within Belgium: there needs to be a team that “runs the show” • Coordination with the European Commission and other Member States Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009

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