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The Challenges of the International Climate Negotiations and the Belgian EU Presidency. Sebastian Oberth ür. Content. UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol Structure of a post-2012 agreement Contents of a post-2012 agreement Status and prospects of negotiations
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The Challenges of the International Climate Negotiations and the Belgian EU Presidency Sebastian Oberthür
Content • UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol • Structure of a post-2012 agreement • Contents of a post-2012 agreement • Status and prospects of negotiations • Implications for the Belgian EU Presidency Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009
1. UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol • 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) • 1997 Kyoto Protocol (industrialised countries emission targets) • 2001/2005 Marrakesh Accords: the Kyoto Protocol’s rule book (Kyoto market mechanisms, reporting and review, sinks/forests, compliance) Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009
2. Structure of post-2012 agreement • Protocol track: negotiations on a second commitment period under the KP (since 2005) • Convention track: negotiations on long-term cooperative action on climate change under UNFCCC (Bali Action Plan, 2007) • Challenges: • 1 Protocol, 2 Protocols, else? • What happens to the KP and the Marrakesh Accords? Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009
3. Contents of post-2012 agreement (1) EU objectives • Limiting global temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels (1996) • Global GHG emissions need to peak by 2020 and decrease by at least 50% from 1990 level by 2050 • GHG emissions of developed countries to be reduced by 25-40% by 2020 and 80-95% by 2050 (baseline 1990) • GHG emissions of more advanced developing countries to be reduced by 15-30% below Business-As-Usual by 2020 Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009
3. Contents of post-2012 agreement (2) • Overarching: What level of ambition? How much differentiation between developed and developing countries? • Developed countries • Kyoto-type emission targets? Comparability? • Kyoto-type reporting and review system? • Treatment of sinks? • Kyoto-type compliance system? Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009
3. Contents of post-2012 agreement (3) • Developing countries • “Nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs)” • What and how (nature, governance, link to financing)? • Reporting and review Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009
3. Contents of post-2012 agreement (4) • Financing • How much and from which sources (public, private/markets, new/innovative mechanisms)? • How much for what (mitigation, adaptation, technology transfer, forests)? • Governance: which institutions and procedures, which new funds (if any), who decides? Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009
3. Contents of post-2012 agreement (5) • Adaptation • Technology development and transfer • Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) • Emissions from international transport • Reform of existing and establishment of new market mechanisms (sectoral mechanisms) • Capacity building, institutions/procedures, etc. Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009
3. Contents of post-2012 agreement (6) • Challenges: • How to achieve agreement on broad concepts and principled matters? • How to elaborate and agree on more detailed implementing rules? Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009
4. Status/prospects of negotiations • KP track: detailed proposals, but no agreement – structure of future agreement? • Convention track: • a lot of negotiating text(s) • Moving towards definition of broad political concepts (leaving detailed legal texts and implementing rules to be elaborated later) • Unclear link with/role of KP and Marrakesh Accords Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009
4. Status/prospects of negotiations (2) • A Copenhagen Agreement is still possible, although by no means certain. • In any event, Copenhagen will require a substantial follow-up (timeline uncertain). Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009
5. Belgian Presidency (1) The role of the EU Presidency • EU spokesperson in international climate negotiations (COP, CMP, subsidiary bodies) • Main EU representative in external climate policy in general (heading the EU Troika) • Chairing of responsible Council Working Party: leading and brokering of internal agreement (Council Conclusions and position papers) • Chairing of various Council expert groups under the Working Party Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009
5. Belgian Presidency (2) Scenarios for 2010 • In any event, international climate policy and negotiations will remain at the top of the international agenda. • Intensity not completely clear yet, but it is likely to be more than is scheduled so far. • Scope of internal discussions dependent on international progress: moving to 30%? Financing? Forests? …? Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009
5. Belgian Presidency (3) • Managing EU external climate policy will constitute a major task of the Belgian EU Presidency in 2010. • Successful execution of this task will require advancing preparations and investing the necessary resources NOW: • Exact needs assessment and strategy for dealing with different scenarios • Pooling/activation/coordination of resources within Belgium: there needs to be a team that “runs the show” • Coordination with the European Commission and other Member States Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009