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Snow Updating for the NWS River Forecast System Streamflow Model

Snow Updating for the NWS River Forecast System Streamflow Model. Why???. Long term ESP runs don’t always match water supply numbers Orographic nature of basin can make it difficult to accurately accumulate snowpack. NWSRFS Snow Model. Energy Balance Inputs of Precipitation and Temperature

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Snow Updating for the NWS River Forecast System Streamflow Model

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  1. Snow Updating for the NWS River ForecastSystem Streamflow Model

  2. Why??? • Long term ESP runs don’t always match water supply numbers • Orographic nature of basin can make it difficult to accurately accumulate snowpack

  3. NWSRFS Snow Model • Energy Balance • Inputs of Precipitation and Temperature • Lumped model split into subareas of like characteristics • Tracks snow accumulation, areal extent of snow cover and heat storage of pack

  4. Snow Updating Method • Estimate missing data • Regresses historical simulated swe against historical observed point swe • Computes swe for each subarea

  5. Snow Updating Method User specified search radius SWE site Can adjust search radius for each subarea to influence number of stations used in regression

  6. Constraints • Runs on first of the month only • Requires at least 10 years of data • Must have NWSRFS

  7. Output provided • Current simulated swe • Computed swe from regression • Selected equation and RMSE • Range and average simulated swe • Sites used and relative weighting • Error bounds • Number of years used in regression

  8. Future Work • Clean up historical record • Graphical capabilities • Areal extent of snow cover • Calibration component

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