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TIDES AND WAVES FOR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVER FORECAST SYSTEM

TIDES AND WAVES FOR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVER FORECAST SYSTEM. Mr. Yuji Funakoshi Dr. Scott C. Hagen, P.E. Pseudo-Operational Forecast and Science Goals Finite Element Meshes St. Johns River Hydrodynamic Modeling Results St. Johns River Hurricane Floyd Modeling Results

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TIDES AND WAVES FOR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVER FORECAST SYSTEM

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  1. TIDES AND WAVES FOR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVER FORECAST SYSTEM Mr. Yuji Funakoshi Dr. Scott C. Hagen, P.E.

  2. Pseudo-Operational Forecast and Science Goals Finite Element Meshes St. Johns River Hydrodynamic Modeling Results St. Johns River Hurricane Floyd Modeling Results Conclusions Future Work Outline

  3. Dr. Pedro Restrepo, NOAA/NWS/OHDMs. Reggina Cabrera, SERFC

  4. Development of a 2D model for the St. Johns River to predict in real-time flow, tides (astronomic and meteorologic) Develop the model and examine test cases Examine uni-coupling model of short and long wave models Fully couple the short and long wave models NOAA/NWS/OHD Project Goals

  5. Model calibration for the entire Western North Atlantic Tidal (WNAT) Model domain. Development of a preliminary finite element mesh for St. Johns River. Preliminary tidal hydrodynamic simulation for St. Johns River. Works Completed by February 7, 2005

  6. Development of some finite element meshes. Including more tributaries. Pseudo-operational model. Tidal hydrodynamic simulations Hurricane Floyd storm surge simulations Works Completed by January 20, 2006

  7. Western North Atlantic Tidal (WNAT) Model Domain North America Central America Florida Continental shelf break Edge of Blake’s Escarpment Open-Ocean Boundary 60oW Meridian South America

  8. Buffalo Bluff Jacksonville Wekela Lake George Mayport Florida Coast St. Johns River Region Flow

  9. Code name = WNAT-SJR 75,436 nodes 138,622 elements Max node space = 160 km Min node space = 50 m 70oW 60oW 80oW North America 30oN 1 km Florida 110 km 160 km Cuba 20oN Central America 100 km 10oN South America

  10. 4 2 3 Code name = Pseudo-operational 26,543 nodes 47,763 elements Max node space = 40km Min node space = 50 m 450 m 200 m 1 80 m Wekela Mayport 170 m 110 m 50 m 400 m 80 m Jacksonville 100 m 50 m 50 m Florida Coast Lake George 200 m Buffalo Bluff 70 m 110 m 50 m

  11. ADCIRC-2DDI (ADvanced CIRCulation, Two-Dimensional Depth- Integrated, Barotropic Time-dependent Long Wave Model) Solving the Generalized Wave Continuity Equation (GWCE, Luettich et al., 1992) and non-conservative momentum equations. Wetting and Drying algorithm. Meteorological input (i.e., wind direction, wind stress, and pressure) Numerical Model

  12. 90 days simulation. Time steps = 5 s. Open boundary forcing (K1, O1, M2, S2, N2, K2, and Q1). Bottom friction coefficient Cb = 0.0025. Pseudo-Operational Model No inflow from tributaries. No meteorological input. Model Setup for Tidal Hydrodynamics w/o Inflow

  13. 12 NOS Tidal Stations in St. Johns River Harmonic Analysis NOS : 37 tidal constituents Model: 23 tidal constituents 1 Mayport 8720625 RACY POINT, SJR , FL 8720220 MAYPORT , FL 2 Deviation from M.S.L. (m) Deviation from M.S.L. (m) Deviation from M.S.L. (m) 3 Buffalo Bluff Wekela 4 8720832 WELAKA, SJR , FL Days into Resynthesis Days into Resynthesis Days into Resynthesis Lake George

  14. 2005 Atlantic Storm Tracks

  15. 122 days simulation (June 1 to September 30, 2005). Time steps = 5 s. Open boundary forcing (K1, O1, M2, S2, N2, K2, and Q1). Bottom friction coefficient Cb = 0.0025. Pseudo-Operational Model Inflow from tributaries using USGS gage data. No meteorological input. Model Setup for Tidal Hydrodynamics w/ Inflows

  16. WWTD, MAYPORT NAVAL STA. I-295 BRIDGE, WEST END USGS gage Locations ADCIRC Inflow Locations Calibration Location BUFFALO BLUFF

  17. 1 Mayport 8720211 WWTD, MAYPORT NAVAL STA., SJR , FL

  18. 2 8720357 I-295 BRIDGE, WEST END, SJR , FL Inflow

  19. 3 8720767 BUFFALO BLUFF, SJR , FL Inflow (no data) Buffalo Bluff

  20. Daily precipitations [in] Daily residual [m] Daily averaged and max wind speed [mph] Daily averaged and max wind speed [mph] Daily precipitations [in] Daily residual [m] Daily averaged and max wind speed at Jacksonville, FL Daily averaged and max wind speed at Jacksonville, FL Daily precipitations at Jacksonville, FL Daily precipitations at Jacksonville, FL Residual vs. Precipitation and Winds

  21. Daily precipitations [in] Daily residual [m] Daily averaged and max wind speed [mph] Daily averaged and max wind speed [mph] Daily precipitations [in] Daily residual [m] Daily averaged and max wind speed at Sanford, FL Daily averaged and max wind speed at Sanford, FL Daily precipitations at Sanford, FL Daily precipitations at Sanford, FL Residual vs. Precipitation and Winds

  22. 4.75 days simulation (September 12 to 16, 1999). Time steps = 5 s. Open boundary forcing (K1, O1, M2, S2, N2, K2, and Q1). Bottom friction coefficient BF_0.001 and BF_0.0025 Pseudo-Operational Model Inflow from tributaries using USGS gage data. Meteorological input (wind stress and pressure) Model Setup for Hurricane Floyd Storm Surge

  23. Hurricane Floyd (NOAA, 1999)

  24. 8720587 ST. AUGUSTINE BEACH, ATLANTIC OCEAN , FL 8720220 MAYPORT , FL 8720030 FERNANDINA BEACH, AMELIA RIVER , FL 8720832 WELAKA, FL 9/15/99 22:00 (H3) 9/15/99 20:00 (H3) Deviation from M.S.L. (m) Deviation from M.S.L. (m) Deviation from M.S.L. (m) Deviation from M.S.L. (m) 9/15/99 18:00 (H3) 9/15/99 16:00 (H3) 9/15/99 13:00 (H4) 9/15/99 10:00 (H4) 9/15/99 7:00 (H4)

  25. Successful Hydrodynamic Model for the St. Johns River Tradeoffs: Large Domain vs. Inlet-Based Pseudo-Operational Domain Hurricane Floyd Simulation Results For the SJR, meteorological forcings are more important than inflows Conclusions

  26. Employ output from a wind-driven short wave model with a long wave model and produce a uni-directional coupling of the two models Fully couple the short wave model with the long wave model Explore the effect this modeling approach Future Works

  27. Local Wave Model Domain Global Wave Model Domain The Image of the Coupling Domain Ocean Circulation Model Domain 20 m

  28. The third generation wave models (e.g., WAM, SWAN, WAVEWATCH-III, and STWAVE models). Integrates the basic transport equation describing the evolution of a two-dimensional ocean wave spectrum without additional assumption. Source functions (i.e., wind input, nonlinear wave-wave interaction, and white-capping dissipation, etc.,). Applied to ocean wave forecasting all over the world. Global model > 20 m (Global WAM, WAVEWATCH-III) Local model < 20 m (Local WAM, SWAN, STWAVE) Short Wave Model(s)

  29. Dietsche, D., S.C. Hagen, and P. Bacopoulos, “Storm Surge Simulations for Hurricane Hugo (1989): On the Significance of Inundation Areas,” Journal of Waterways, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering, In Revision. S.C. Hagen, A. Zundel and S. Kojima, “Automatic, Unstructured Mesh Generation for Tidal Calculations in a Large Domain,” International Journal of Computational Fluid Dynamics, In Review. Salisbury, M.B. and S.C. Hagen, “The Effect of Tidal Inlets on Open Coast Storm Surge Hydrographs,” Coastal Engineering, In Review. Funakoshi, Y. and S.C. Hagen, “A Tide and Storm Surge Model for the St. Johns River,” Ocean Engineering, In Review. M. Salisbury and S.C. Hagen, “The Effect of Tidal Inlets on Storm Surge Hydrographs,” Proceedings, WAVES 2005, Madrid, Spain, CD-ROM, July 3-7, 2005. Y. Funakoshi and S.C. Hagen, “Towards an Integrable Short and Long Wave Model for Tidal Hydrodynamics,” Proceedings, WAVES 2005, Madrid, Spain, CD-ROM, July 3-7, 2005. Manuscripts & Publications

  30. Acknowledgements Satoshi Kojima, M.S.W.R. (Graduated SU05) Yuji Funakoshi, Ph.D. Candidate D. Michael Parrish, Ph.D. Qualified Peter Bacopoulos, Masters Student David Coggin, Masters Student Mike Salisbury, Masters Student Naeko Takahashi, ESL Student

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