Center of Rail Safety-Critical Excellence BRIEFING September 2002

1. Centerof RailSafety-Critical Excellence BRIEFINGSeptember 2002

2. USA RAIL SAFETY BRIEFING AGENDA • Center of Rail Safety-Critical Excellence Overview • SEAS Interdisciplinary Collaboration • International University Collaboration • FRA Safety Rule Making Participation • Performance-based Rail Safety Enforcement Rule • Major Risk USA Assessment Projects • Risk Assessment Tool Set Overview • Proposed UVA – China Collaboration

3. Center of Rail Safety-Critical Excellence - Overview • MISSION: Develop and maintain railroad performance-based safety enforcement standards, risk assessment methodologies and tool sets that support global rail industry safety enforcement. • OBJECTIVES: Provide a Monte Carlo risk assessment systems simulation methodology with web-based tool sets and education that is Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) and Association of American Railroads (AAR) compliant. • STRATEGY: Implement a UVA School of Engineering and Applied Science (SEAS) interdisciplinary Rail Center of Safety-Critical Excellence staffed with a permanent research staff, faculty from Electrical and Computer Engineering, Systems Information and Engineering, Civil Engineering, and Cognitive Psychology Laboratory. Establish global university - industry collaboration. • EXPECTED RESULTS: Global application of performance-based safety standards, risk assessment methodologies, validated & verified tool sets and education.

4. SEAS Interdisciplinary Collaboration • Center is based on a SEAS interdisciplinary collaboration with the Association of American Railroads (AAR) and industry suppliers: • Electrical and Computer Engineering Department • Monte Carlo systems approach to risk assessment • Probabilistic advanced safety train control • Systems Information and Engineering Department • Historical data mining for validation & verification • Human-factors for probabilistic safety behavior • Civil Engineering Department • Guideway structures probabilistic behavior models • Crash-worthiness / accident severity • Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Department • Maglev levitation safety hazards and performance • Cognitive Measurements Laboratory • Probabilistic human-factors for safety measurements

5. International University Collaboration • Collaboration is underway with the following German technical universities: • Technical University of Braunschweig • Technical University of Dresden

6. FRA Safety Enforcement Rule Making • Center has participated since 1997 in the preparation of the FRA performance-based safety standard rule making that includes the following: • Railroad Safety Program Plan • Defines the Safety Plan process a railroad operator will follow • Railroad Product Safety Plan • Requires that a Product Safety Plan be written for each system that is deployed by the railroad operator • Product Safety Plan must include: • Traffic Flow Density • Human-factors • Quantified Risk Assessment • Extensive Safety-Critical Documentation • Documentation Configuration Control & Test Plan • Operational Rule Book

7. Performance-based Rail Safety Enforcement Rule • Performance-based safety standards require the quantification of safety as a societal cost risk versus train miles traveled • A Product Safety Plan is required for each system that is deployed by a railroad and the following quantification must be demonstrated: • Risk NEW << Risk Old • Train Miles Traveled • High Degree of Confidence • Compliance to Coverage for all Safety-Critical Devices

8. Major Center USA Risk Assessment Projects • CSX: Communication-based Traffic Management (CBTM) • 126 mile line • Unit coal trains and other mixed mode traffic • New York City Transit (NYCT): Communication-based Train Control (CBTC) • 22 mile dual track line with crossovers • High performance transit railway operations • 60 second headways and 30 second train station dwell time • Lockheed Martin: Illinois Department of Transportation (IDOT) Positive Train Control (PTC) • 126 mile line with mixed mode operations • High speed passenger (110 MPH) trains and freight • Maglev, Inc: City of Pittsburgh, “Pennsylvania Project” • 45 miles dual crossover guideway with 250 MPH planned speeds • Passenger & light freight operation • FRA: Web-based predictive risk assessment methodologies and tool set

9. Risk Assessment Tool Set Overview • PROOF-OF-SAFETY: RISK VERSUS TRAIN MILES TRAVELED • Subject to: • Traffic throughput density • Basic principles of safety • Assumptions • Constraints • Operational rule book compliance • Track plan infrastructure: track plan, guideway, bridges, crossings • Train movement dynamics multi-dimensional model • Signaling and control system multi-state probabilistic model • Human-factors probabilistic model • Train severity mishap model • Proof-of-correctness (Hazard-free validation) • Proof-of-safety risk (Non-hazard-free verification) • Coverage compliance of all processor-based subsystems

10. Axiomatic Safety-Critical Assessment Process (ASCAP) Features • ASCAP is FRA performance-based standard compliant • Monte Carlo large-scale train-centric simulation • Operates on a web-based parallel processing mini-super computer • ASCAP structure is Unified Modeling Language compliant • Calculates Events Passed at Danger based on a dynamic train movement model and probabilistic behavior of wayside devices and human-factors – dispatchers, train crews and maintenance-of-way workers • Events Passed at Danger are an automatic generation of fault trees • Calculates mishap-pairs: train-to-train collisions, etc. and crash-worthiness severity as societal cost based on history of accidents and/or real-time performance-based simulation

11. SIGNIFICANT ASCAP MODELS • Probabilistic device behavior: • Rule book compliance/non-compliance • A.I. blackboard outcomes • Human-factors safety behaviors and compliance • Train dynamic movement model – discrete & continuous • Accident severity societal cost • Events passed at danger

12. Event Passed at Danger (EPAD) Concept S CRASH Train 2 Train 1 YARD A YARD B • Train 1 crew sees red signal as green & proceeds • Train 1 has generated an EPAD • Simulation changes from discrete event to continuous • Based on train crew behavior(s) the trains may stop • Train 1 crew has violated the rule book compliance

13. MISHAP CONCEPT Continuous Simulation Discrete Event Simulation Train B should have taken the siding

14. Decision Maker Risk Containment Region Societal Cost

15. ASCAP++ Tool SET

16. Proposed – China/USA Collaboration • A China/USA university partnership is proposed that provides FRA compliant risk assessment for the major rail projects in China: • Duplicate a Center of Rail Safety-Critical Excellence in China for: • High Speed Rail • Maglev • Transit Railways • Technology transfer of Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) risk assessment compliant methodologies, tool sets and education to China • Technology transfer would take place with UVA implementing the risk assessment of a major China rail project with Chinese graduate students at UVA • Methodologies and tool sets would be supported via the web as graduate students return to China • Chinese university would have a seat on the UVA Advisory Board to provide technical direction oversight. Likewise, Chinese Center would have a technical Advisory Board with a UVA member