The PRC’s Developing Defense Strategy & Process of Military Modernization

1. The PRC’s Developing Defense Strategy & Process of Military Modernization Andrew Nien-Dzu Yang

2. The PRC’s Developing Defense Strategy & Process of Military Modernization Briefing Content Evolution of Military Strategy B. Evolution of Military Doctrine C. Stages of Military Modernization D. Implementation of Military Modernization E. Limits and Constraints

3. A. Evolution of Military Strategy ─Strategic Retreat (1950-1978) characterized by Mao’s People’s War doctrine; fighting a total war ─Strategic Balance (1979-1989) characterized by US-China alliance in balancing USSR; emergence if local war concept ─Strategy of Active Defense (1990-1997) characterized by emergence of fighting a local war under high-tech conditions ─Strategy of Improved Active Defense by Adding Offensive Strike Capabilities (1997-) characterized by fight and win a local war under modern high-tech conditions

4. B. Evolution of Military Doctrine The Relationship of PLA Doctrinal Developments to Force Structure

5. C. Stages of Military Modernization The Relationship of PLA Doctrinal Developments to Modernization

6. D. Implementation of Military Modernization1997-2010 a. Ground Force b. Air Force c. Navy d. Strategic Force (Second Artillery) e. Space Warfare capability

7. a. Modernization: Ground Force Mission: Home Land Defense, Fight and Win a Local War under Modern Hi-Tech Conditions Status of Progress: Downsizing: further reduction is conceivable probably cut 0.5 million by 2005 continuous reduction until 2010 Restructuring: merging Nanjing MR and Jinan MR to consolidate and in crease command and control to Eastern Defense Create Rapid Deployment Forces and enhance Joint Operation: RDF composition: Air Borne Divisions, Special Forces Army Aviation Units, Marine Corp etc., totally 300,000 Command and Control of RDF: CMC

8. b. Modernization: Air Force Mission: Air Defense, Ground Support, Precision Strikes with Guided munitions Status of Progress: improving jointness; all weather operational capabilities; Hi-Low-Law tactics Weapon system modernization SU-27 SU-30MMK J-10 FC-1 FB-7A

9. c. Modernization: Navy Mission: Support national military objectives protect maritime interests Objective: develop “Air-Sea unified” combat capabilities Continued in next page

10. Status of Progress: shipbuilding and acquisition processes Sovemmenny-class 052B 052C 054 039A(Song) 093 Kilo

11. d. Strategic Force (Second Artillery) Mission: developing “limited” deterrent force, which could include the introduction of limited war- fighting capabilities, improved command and control and early warning systems, smaller, survivable, mobile, more accurate, and diverse cruise and ballistic missile nuclear delivery system. Force Structure: 600+SRBMs (DF9, DF11) 200+IRBMs (DF21, DF31) 50+ICBMs (DF41?) by 2010-2015 Continued in next page

12. d. Strategic Force (Continued) Deployment: Suspected Chinese Strategic Missile Bases (derived from open sources) Note: In addition, reports also cite the following launch sites: DF-5: Jiuquan (war reserves), Wuzhai (war reserves)

13. e. Developing Space Warfare Capability Perception: Access to Space in order to Fight and Win Future War Steps under consideration: Creation of “Space Force” (Tien Juen) Progress: developing a range of systems including ─regional GPS satellite constellation (BD satellites) ─telecommunication satellites ─maritime surveillance satellites ─early warning satellites ─early warning satellites ─high-resolution electro- optical imaging systems ─manned space operations

14. E. Limits and Constraints 1. overall command structure and force structure are ill-suited to joint operations 2. relative lack of air and sea lift capacity 3. limited ASW and amphibious capability 4. limited IW capability 5. fragmented logistic supply systems 6. limited missile defense capability 7. possible budget constraint