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Skills Assessments

This introduction provides an overview of skills assessments and their importance in skills planning. It covers the Scottish Skills Planning Model and the data matrix used, with a focus on the local authority area of Midlothian. The presentation includes information on business trends, population and projections, workforce trends, qualifications and earnings, and education and training. It also highlights job and skills changes in Midlothian, including forecasts for total employment growth and replacement and expansion demand.

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Skills Assessments

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  1. Skills Assessments Midlothian December 2016

  2. Introduction • An Introduction to Skills Assessments • Key Data for Midlothian • Implications for Skills Investment Planning

  3. An Introduction to Skills Assessments

  4. What are Skills Assessments? • A single, agreed evidence base on which to base future investment in skills, built up from existing datasets • Partnership between Skills Development Scotland, Highlands and Islands Enterprise, Scottish Enterprise, the Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the Scottish Local Authorities Economic Development Group. • Purpose: • Support SFC, Regional Colleges, Strategic Bodies and College Boards in negotiating Regional Outcome Agreements (ROAs) for Academic Years 2017-2020 • Provide a framework for aligning SDS investment in individuals and businesses • Assist partners in planning their strategic investment in skills • Highlight gaps in national and regional skills evidence

  5. Why are they important for skills planning? • They provide a high quality and consistent source of evidence about economic and skills performance delivery at various spatial levels. • They can be used to identify strengths and any issues or mismatches arising, and so inform thinking about future planning and investment. • They are accessible online to support all partners in their planning. • They provide a core evidence base to support the Scottish Skills Planning Model.

  6. Scottish Skills Planning Model

  7. What do they cover? • Economic Performance, Profile of the Workforce, People and Skills, Education and Training (MAs, Schools, FE and HE), Other Economic Activity, Skills Mismatches and Forecasting • Underpinned by the 2016 data matrix of 7 workbooks, containing data on over 100 social and economic indicators • With data at various spatial levels: Regions; City Region Deal; Local Authority • The matrix only draws upon official datasets (including APS, BRES, UKCES, UK Business Counts, Census, Scot Gov datasets) and partner data (SFC, SDS, SE, HIE). • The data matrix is found here: https://www.skillsdevelopmentscotland.co.uk/what-we-do/partnerships/regional-skills-assessments/ • This slidepack provides a summary of the data for this area

  8. Local Authority Overview • Midlothian is a small local authority area to the south of Edinburgh. It benefits from its proximity to Edinburgh, with over half of employed residents travelling to the city to work • The Borders Railway has improved its already good transport links • As part of the Edinburgh and South East Scotland City Deal Region, it stands to benefit from significant investment over the next 20 years • The decline of traditional industries had a detrimental impact although it is now a centre of excellence for life and biosciences, with an international profile

  9. Business Trends

  10. Population and Projections

  11. Workforce Trends Note: Data on total employment relates to 2014, having been prepared in advance of 2015 BRES release.

  12. Employment and Unemployment

  13. Qualifications and Earnings

  14. Schools Modern Apprenticeships Education and Training

  15. Further and Higher Education HE/FE data is available at Edinburgh, East and Midlothian regional level only and comprises data for City of Edinburgh, East Lothian and Midlothian. Data relates to enrolments at FE and HE Institutions in the region, not residents unless otherwise stated. Data provided by SFC and HESA

  16. Jobs and Skills Changes (1) Total employment (jobs) is forecast to increase by 0.6% on average each year from 2016 to 2024, an equivalent rate of 0.2% growth is expected for Scotland as a whole. Such growth equates to 1,300 more jobs in the region by 2024. Construction and professional, scientific and technical roles are expected to have growth of 600 and 400 respectively over the period. However such gains will be offset by falling employment within the public and manufacturing sectors. The number of jobs within public administration and defence and manufacturing and expected to fall by 200 jobs each over the forecast. Total Employment Growth Midlothian Employment % annual average change Change in total jobs (‘000s), 2016-2024 2002-2015 2016-2024 Note: chart uses total employment (jobs) rather than total employment (people). The former figure will be higher as a person can have more than one job. Source: ONS / Oxford Economics

  17. Jobs and Skills Changes (2) Replacement demand will result in 12,000 openings within Midlothian over the forecast period. Expansion demand is expected to grow by 1,200 openings between 2016-2024. Together with replacement demand, this will result in 13,200 openings over this period. Openings will be highest in professional and caring, leisure and other service occupations. The total requirement for workers in skilled trades, administrative and secretarial and elementary occupations is also expected to rise significantly over the 2016-24 period. • Notes: • table uses total requirement (people) • totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table • Source: Oxford Economics

  18. Implications for Skills Investment Planning

  19. Midlothian: Key Implications (1) .

  20. Midlothian: Key Implications (2) .

  21. Midlothian: Key Implications (3) .

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