Hot, Flat and Crowded Chs . 9-10

1. Hot, Flat and CrowdedChs. 9-10 Dr. Ron Lembke Sustainability

2. Netherlands Energy Poor • Sub-Sahara Africa, minus South Africa = 47 countries • 20 GW of power, same as the Netherlands • Add as much capacity per year as China two weeks • 550m people no network elect. • 75% of households • S. Asia • 700m no access

3. Academic Collaboration Data from Scopus, image from Olivier H. Beauchesne

4. Pop: 850mill Darkness at Night 24m Pop: 1billion 49m Pop: 127m

5. Stoves Open fires , stove cooking • 1.6 million deaths per year • Young children and mothers Stovetec.net • Causes of death (WHO): • Malnutrition • Unsafe sex • Clean water and sanitation • Biomass cooking

6. No Grid Access – Health and Ed • Can’t pump clean water • No communications • Kids have to help carry it • No literacy classes for parents • Education • No communications, computers • All of human knowledge on the Internet, but no access • Girls walk miles for firewood and water • Finding time for schoolwork 33% higher with elect. • Hey, let’s move to the city!

7. Impacts • Health • Run Medical equipment EKG on car batteries • Refrigeration for medicines • EKG machines- 16 car batteries • Telemedicine, remote doctors, but no power • Can’t desalinate water or run a fan • Business • 56 days of outages for African mfg companies • Backup generators pollute more • Can’t run plants, equipment • Can’t collaborate, send emails,

8. Straight to Green Energy? • Skipped land lines • If all 1.6 million plugged into the grid? • Added 25% MORE to current energy usage? • Electrons • Abundant • Clean • Reliable • Cheap • Solve health, education and energy problems

9. Creativity • 20% of the planet not engaged in solving world’s problems • They know the problems first hand

10. Sustainable Rural Communities • Sell goods directly to the world with connectivity • People move to cities for work, crowding • Ethakota, Satyam outsourced back office operations • Processing magazine subscriptions, phone services • Educated employees, went to big cities, came back • Higher quality of life • Live near extended family, walk to work • Never quit these great jobs

11. 10:Green =Red, White, and Blue • Eventually, we will all pay the true cost of energy • If it causes climate change, pay for remediation, etc. • Total Cost of Ownership • With all costs included, smartest, most efficient, lowest cost • Visibility: blogs, internet • Finite Resources: • Land, water, animals, air • Design, build export green energy technologies • Clean electrons, clean air, healthy abundant food • Major competitive advantage of nations

12. We Need Growth • “I start from the bedrock principle that we as a global society need more and more growth, because without it there is no human development and those in poverty will never escape it.” p.226 • Abundant, Clean, Reliable, Cheap electrons

13. Maybe We’re Wrong • If Climate Change isn’t true • Weaned off Middle East Oil, petrodictators • Fewer wars over natural resources • Efficient houses, buildings, cars • Free feedstocks for large % • Don’t drill in Mother Nature’s cathedrals • End deforestation • Globally desirable products – leading • If it is true, and we do nothing?

14. Developing New Technologies • Continuous Process Improvement! • We need huge investments in R&D • TILT: Terrific, Imaginary Low-carbon Technology • Economies of scale

15. IAE 2008 report

16. Duke University A-new buses R-natural gas

17. Competitive Advantage • Mother of all markets – Lois Quam • Transformation equivalent to Industrial Revolution • Everything was different after • To go green, will make us healthier, stronger, more secure, more innovative, more competitive, more respected. • What could be more patriotic, capitalistic than that? • Develop, innovate, “Chindia price”

18. American Leadership • “America is the country of the Future. It is a county of beginnings, of projects, of vast designs and expectations.” • Ralph Waldo Emerson, 1844 • “Make no little plans. They have no magic to stir men's blood and probably will not themselves be realized.” • Daniel Burnham, architect, 1911

19. American Leadership • Nixon – • Environmental Protection Act • Environmental Impact Statement • Moral responsibility • Greatest portion of world’s resources • More resources for innovation • Standing to affect other people • Giving more people clean power consistent with expanding freedom • Sarkozy - Can’t be first on human rights and last on environmental responsibilities

20. New Majority

21. A Hoax? • Global warming, as a man-made and highly threatening phenomenon, is at best an exaggeration, at worst an utter “hoax.” • Over half of House Republicans • Three-quarters of Senate Republicans • “Hoax” • James Inhofe, ranking Republican on Senate Environment and Public Works Committee • Source: NYT “Fact-Free Science,” Judith Warner, 1/25/11

22. Energy Efficiency • Aluminum 95% from recycling • 4% of energy used for light in an incandescent • Ton of paper saves 17 trees, uses 50% less water • McKinsey: cut energy demand growth by 2020 by half using existing technologies • “I don’t want to be the first generation telling my kids you can’t have life as good as I did.” K.R. Sridhar –Bloom Energy

23. Family Planning • Educating young women • Better educated, work • Earn incomes self & kids • Have fewer children • My mom’s cousins • Educate the men • 9.2 billion by 2050, could be 11.9!

24. Conservation, Ethics and Balance • Ethics can’t be legislated • Norms, values, beliefs, habits, attitudes embraced voluntarily • Consume less, make stuff last longer • Anti-capitalist, anticonsumerist wing? • We need nature, we need capitalism • We need more growth as a global society • New habits toward consumption • Rationing electricity? No. Telling you you can’t leave all the lights on all night? Maybe. • Force you to bike to work? No. Force you to put in bike lanes? Maybe. • Congestion pricing

25. Adaptation • Planting trees to protect shores • Avoiding the problems cheaper than cleaning up

26. Incentives • Clean energy won’t solve all our problems, but it’s a great enabler of other changes • Tax incentives, policies • Little improvements, one generation after another • Breakthrough technologies • TILT: Terrific Imaginary Low-carbon Technology • 25 years to become 1% of total • Huge market opportunities today speed this up?

27. Conclusions • RE < C • REEFIGDCPEERPC<TTCOBCOG • Renewable Energy Ecosystem For Innovating, Generating and Deploying Clean Power, Energy Efficiency, Resource Productivity and Conservation < • The True Cost Of Burning Coal, Oil, and Gas

28. Ethanol • Corn-based: bad idea, minimal benefit • Impact on food prices 2009 CBO repot • Ethanol 10-15% • Oil prices 22-36% all-time high • Rising global demand for meat • Weaker dollar increased corn exports • Concerns about weather causing poor crop http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/100xx/doc10057/04-08-Ethanol.pdf

29. Ethanol Gallons of Fuel/Acre • First Generation: • Corn 400 • Sugarcane 650 • Second Generation (cellulistic) • Switchgrass 1,000 • Miscanthus 1,250 • Third Generation • Algae5,000

30. Carbon Capture • Natural Gas safely trapped underground • Why not CO2? • Ship it in pipelines • Find good locations, monitor it forever • Capturing the Carbon costs energy • Burn more coal to pay for the cost • But we could burn as much as we wanted? • Only captures CO2, not other GHGs • Commercial scale just starting

31. Solar Thermal • Parabolic mirrors, • fluid in tubes in middle • Expensive mirrors • Power Tower – • flat mirrors aimed at big tower • Cheap mirrors, big tower • Coyote Springs 74,000 gallons per MW of capacity • Heat can be stored in molten salt for hours • Generate some power even when sun not shining • Water issues to clean mirrors,

32. Photovoltaic (PV) cells • Easily distributed: rooftops, etc. • Some water for cleaning • Cost reductions • Likely cheaper than thermal, in the end • No sun, no power • Need battery storage or other source