DPME PRESENTATION TO THE HUMAN SETTLEMENTS PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 3 OCTOBER 2017

1. DPME PRESENTATION TO THE HUMAN SETTLEMENTS PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 3 OCTOBER 2017

2. Presentation Outline • Introduction: Outcome 8 - Strategic Intent • Budget, Entities, Provinces & Metros • DPME performance monitoring role (Annual Report) • Performance Information (Part B) • Evaluations • Stats SA’s GHS: 2002 - 2016 • MTSF targets • Housing & Human Settlements Theory of Change • Evaluation Synthesis and Public Sector Reform • Recommendations: Mid – Term Performance Review

3. OUTCOME 8: SUSTAINABLE HUMAN SETTLEMENTS AND IMPROVED QUALITY OF HOUSEHOLD LIFE • STRATEGIC INTENT • Break apartheid spatial patterns through improved coordinated spatial planning and investment (in the built environment) • Build and retrofit settlements to offer all South Africans access to adequate housing in better living environments • Enable a functionally equitable residential property market

4. HSDG LAND FOR HOUSING Citizen: Budgets, Fiscal Flows, Entities, Provinces, Metros & Markets TOP STRUCTURE INTERNAL SERVICES HUMAN SETTLEMENTS INEP (including municipal public services and social services) USDG BUILT ENVIRONMENT BULK INFRASTRUCTURE PTIG (including non-residential services and buildings, public places, transport networks and transport interchanges) NDPG ICDG LAND / NATURAL ENVIRONMENT

5. DPME Performance Monitoring Role FSD & CBM: Service experience (citizens) Planning & Budget QPR INPUTS People Money Facilities & equipment 1. Strategic Management Development Indicators Output 1 2. Governance & Accountability Outcomes Impact Output 2 3. Employees, Systems & Processes Output 3 4. Financial Management MPAT Management Practices (concurrent) Institutional dimension Evaluations (effectiveness matched to NT EPR value for money) Outcome 8 Monitoring

6. DPME Evaluations • NDHS:7 evaluations in the National Evaluation Plan • Different types of evaluations for different stages of the programme: • Design: logic & integrity of programme theory; • Implementation: Contextual influences; capability of implementation agencies & assessing immediate change • Impact: longer term changes in communities/society • Evaluations explain working of programme theory & observed delivery trends: account for outcomes beyond quarterly or annual reports • Offers targeted guidance to what needs to be fixed to make programmes perform better

7. Preliminary findings of the Evaluations • Housing/Human Settlement programme instruments respond to complex operating environment of complicated legislative frameworks of multiple institutional, political, administrative and financial rules which provide for an expansive delivery system • The evaluations provide early pointers that overall - the housing programmes work, but performances and outcomes are mixed • Subsidized housing has contributed significantly to addressing poverty and stabilising society-providing a foot onto the property ladder • The structure for financing housing and human settlements have a critical causal relationship for sustainable human settlement outcomes • IRDP supports integrated settlement making when based on specialised implementing agents, capable of managing the complex interface between planning, financing and implementation of projects with clear agreements of responsibility and accountability (and agreed M&E platforms) But • Evaluations show both planning and implementation agency interface limitations • Housing/human settlements meta-theory of change (multiple outcomes) is contested • Poor correlation between programme, housing project, house, household, settlement making, city plans (uneven plans and monitoring)

8. Systematic Review of housing programme interventions towards a virtuous cycle for sustainable human settlements-Early lessons Integrated settlements Improved Shelter Equitable functional property market Overall TOC Interventions/ programmes work, but performances and outcomes are mixed Affordable Housing interventions: affordability & Risk Outcomes Meta ToC is Contested USDG: Grants to local government to provide land and infrastructure for the poor Housing/Human Settlement programme instruments respond to a complex IGR operating environment of multiple legislative, institutional, political, administrative, financial rules in an expansive delivery system: but demonstrate poor correlation between programme, housing project, house, household life cycle, settlement making, city plans and monitoring

9. Impact evaluation Integrated Residential Development Program + Affordable Housing (attributing change to programmes) Design evaluation ofthe Urban Settlements Development Grant + Informal Settlements Upgrading programme (analyse TOC, inner logic and consistency of intervention) Assessing the suite of housing interventions - shaping sustainable settlement outcomes Implementation Evaluation Urban Settlements Development Grant + Social Housing (Analyse the TOC and assess it effectiveness Economic Evaluation Affordable housing market policy/programme (analyse the TOC and provide a CBA) Evaluation Synthesis: Asset Creation & Access to the City (generalise findings) Diagnostic Informal Settlements Upgrading Programme (baselineto inform the intervention design)

10. Immediate results of providing housing: Increased access to shelter (ownership and rental) Participation in the property market Security of tenure Improved health outcomes Changes in Stable communities Equitable distribution of value of the property market Integrated settlements Changes in Ecosystem & Human Conditions Sustainable human settlements and improve livelihood Results Implementation Wider Outcomes Intermediate Outcomes Impacts Activities Outputs What we Produce/building blocks: Service land Houses Access to private end-user finance Inputs What we Do: Land assembly Fiscal transfers to province and muni Project packaging and approval Community consultation Regulating What we Invest/need: Intergovernmental grants The constitution Land Communities

11. MTSF: Outcome 8 Performance Targets 2014-2019

12. Stats SA’s GHS: 2002 - 2016 • The publication reflects government’s own assessment of the country’s performance in quantitative measures against national priority outcomes. • Data is sourced from government administrative datasets, official statistics, national statistics and research undertaken by local and international institutions. • South Africa accommodated 4.9 million households in formal housing between 2005 and 2016 (71.0 % to 79.3 %) • The government subsidy housing programmecontributed 1930 454 formal houses between 2005 and 2016 • Informal dwellings as a proportion of total households have decreased (16.0% to 13.9 between 2005 & 2016), there has been an absolute increase in the number of households not living informal dwellings from 1.87 million to 2.3 million over the same period • New household formation has outpaced population growth, with the national average household size reducing from 4.6 in 1996 to 3.5 in 2016 and • A distinct reduction of average household size in informal settlements down to 2.64 people • 21.6 % of the population rent and of those, 713 000 households stay and or rent in both formal and informal backyard dwellings

13. MTSF Performance (Year 3 should be at 60%) • The 2016/17 Annual Performance represent the Medium Term Strategic Framework (MTSF) 2014-2019 Mid-Term Performance progress • APP indicators are aligned to MTSF as required. The indicator on land acquisition is aligned with MTSF as reviewed during the MTSF Refinement and recorded good performance but the rezoning remains a challenge • Informal settlements upgrading target as reported in the AR understate weak-performance of 75 941 (metros - USDG at 19 598) – 33.4% • 1 475 of 2200 Informal Settlements assessed, 813 plans for upgrading and 413 for 2016/17 - AR • APP/AR Alignment of subsidy housing units delivered: performance below target – 90 692 (2016/17) – 286 627 (50.9%) • Title deeds transfers:187 175 of 818 057 revised target of (900 000) backlog (22,9%) and only 67 449 for 2016/17. New titles transferred 69 675 (12.4 %) of 563 000 (adding to backlog) and not in the 2016/17 APP and AR. • Bank loans translated into 50 046 new units (AR) • Poor performance of Finance Linked Subsidy Programme (2 660 as in AR) and 5 565 (8%) of 70 000 MTSF target (FLISP triggers bank loans) • Rental/social housing - 3595 AR (8 167 – 30.2% of MTSF target) • Good progress with addressing integration of settlements: MSP; Catalytic projects; land & DFI Consolidation • Policy and programme revisions for finance, rental, mineworker housing, the Human Settlements White Paper and the accreditation of municipalities are running behind target

14. Meta Theory of Change Housing/Human Settlements

15. Theory of Change for the Space Economy

16. Human Settlements Public Sector Reform (PSR) Review and Improvement Plan - Human Settlements & Urban PSR Agenda • Overall NDP vision, targets and approach • Requires comprehensive PSR • Metros to drive the reform agenda through co-ordinated inter-governmental support • Sets the reform agenda for national housing policy, programmes & value-chain • Reform driven through: • Policy & regulatory reform (IUDF, SPLUMA, Sector policies - transport, housing) • Support Framework reform (CSP) • Planning Framework reform (BEPP instrument) • Financing reform (integrated urban infrastructure financing) • Monitoring reform (MTSF, BEPP, MEIA etc)

17. Housing Sector PSR: Identified Critical Success Factors (CSFs) • Policy and regulatory framework that is clear, implementable and aligned to broad PSR • Effective and co-ordinated planning framework • Effective M&E, based on accessible and reliable information • Strengthened local government • Integrated local government infrastructure financing • Co-ordinated intergovernmental support to drive the reform agenda • Productive partnerships between government and the private sector • Active community involvement • Institutional platform, capacity and support structure to drive reform • Effective governance and accountability at all levels

18. MTSF: Outcome 8 Performance Targets 2014-2019

19. Recommendations • Embed the asset based approach to housing development towards enhancing overall property value i.e. create virtuous cycles between household asset growth, neighbourhood development and management, improved investment by household and private sector - enabling improved rates revenue and closing the fiscal gap • Develop new forms of adjudicating settlement level development and performance by building the requisite skills & mechanics across spheres, and with the private sector and civil society • Spell out Improved Performance, better define targets and plans based on an iterative understanding the of the intervention logic that operates for housing, human settlement development and the built environment • Build concerted programme support for core housing instruments (the subsidy programme-IRDP; Informal Settlement Programme; Rental/Social housing programme; Affordable Housing programme); through intergovernmental agreements based on emergent practice and public private partnerships • Create a coherent policy/legislative, programme investment and implementation framework between Housing, Human Settlements and the Built Environment (like in the Mining Towns) to better incentivize private sector and social partners

20. THANK YOU AHMEDI VAWDA Tel: 012 312 0111 E-Mail: Ahmed@dpme.gov.za