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WHO LIVES IN NEW DWELLINGS?

Delve into the demographics of occupants in new housing, utilizing data sources like census tables, school surveys, and cohort survival models. Understand the dynamics of population in modern dwellings through forecasting services, annual monitoring reports, and survey data. Explore the complexities of new versus existing dwelling populations and examine the process of cohort survival for accurate forecasting. Stay informed with real data from new developments, education authorities, and annual school surveys. Engage with a comprehensive approach to dynamic modeling that considers various factors influencing dwelling needs and population growth. Access diverse data sources like Hometrack, Land Registry, and electoral roll for a holistic analysis.

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WHO LIVES IN NEW DWELLINGS?

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  1. WHO LIVES IN NEW DWELLINGS? Steve Clyne EFM LTD BSPS Annual Conference September 10 - 12 2008

  2. In this economic climate? No-one SITE CLOSED

  3. Who Lives in New Housing?Child Focused Perspectives Data Sources • Census Tables • Census Child Theme Tables • Census Commissioned Tables • Census Postcode Tables • Forecasting Services • Survey of English Housing • Annual Birth Data • Survey Data • Annual Monitoring Reports (AMR) • AMR Source Data • Pupil Level Annual School Census Data • Cohort Survival Data • Dynamic Monitoring • Land Registry • Hometrack • Electoral Roll

  4. Census Data Census is a snapshot in time with two exceptions Wholly migrant families in the prior year (CO549 & CO511) and When sorted by postcode start date

  5. Commissioned Outputs CO549 & CO511 • Census by local authority area by dwelling type, tenure and number of rooms (CO549) • Same criteria for wholly migrating families in the year prior to census (CO511)

  6. CO 549 Census uses a different interpretation of number of rooms to everyone else.

  7. Converting ‘Census’ Rooms to Bedrooms • b Drawn from ‘households by tenure of accommodation, by number of rooms, by number of bedrooms’.

  8. Census by Postcode • Merging the ‘All Fields Postcode Directory’ with ‘2001 Postcode Headcounts’ creates a unique view of census. • The number of people and number of dwellings for each postcode in an identified census output area (OA) with the date that the postcode was created or abolished. • This permits the census to be trawled by creation date to isolate the ‘new dwellings’.

  9. Census Data for New Dwellings

  10. Census Based Dynamic Modelling Cohort Survival (for demographers)* • Chelmer and PopGroup and …. • Logical and plausible : widely used and accepted • Census + births + inward migration – deaths and outward migration identifies the need to add or subtract dwelling numbers (bit of an over-simplification but …) School Place Planners use the term to mean something else

  11. Cohort Survival 2 • For forecasting populations in new dwellings • Migration led forecast (census + births, etc) = dwelling need • Reverse the process and constrain same forecast to zero dwelling growth (population forecast for stock dwellings) • Subtract zero growth from migration led to identify the population in new dwellings

  12. Cohort Survival 3 • Assumes same dwelling and tenure mix as at census : results have to be manipulated to reflect contemporary mixes.

  13. Chelmer Forecast

  14. Surveys of New Dwellings

  15. Surveys of New Dwellings? • Of variable quality, Kent 2006 is the most thorough and detailed to date. Key questions: eg When you moved to this address, did your children change school? now being routinely asked. • Although not as yet published Wandsworth have revisited an earlier survey to assess turnover of new properties. (Found to be surprisingly stable, ie same number of children getting older).

  16. Kent Survey

  17. Kent Survey

  18. Real Data • Sourced from Planning Authority (Annual Monitoring Report researchers) list of new dwellings (since 2001) Type, No. Bedrooms, Tenure, Address including postcode. • Sourced from Education Authority number of children, by school phase, enrolled in local schools with same postcode.

  19. Real Data 2 New developments most usually have their own postcode. Bigger developments often have different postcode by dwelling type and tenure.

  20. PLASC • Pupil Level Annual School Survey • Detailed survey of every school, on the same day, every year includes pupils’ home postcodes. • Every school child has a unique identifier throughout their education.

  21. Cohort Survival (education) • Very accurate short-term forecasting method for the school places needed • It is the relationship between the number of births in the area leading to the number of children in Reception Classes four years later • Thereafter the number of children in each year group that appear in the next higher group, a year later

  22. Dynamic Modelling • Ebbsfleet Valley is an ‘up to 12,000 dwellings’ development underway at Dartford. • To be delivered over 25 years. • The planning permissions identify the quantum of land safeguarded for schools.

  23. Dynamic Modelling • The Education Review Group (mix of developer and LEA representatives) meet six monthly, share information and plan delivery for the next stage. • The strength is that the pace of delivery can be adjusted to match forecast demand over a shorter timescale .

  24. Other Data Sources • Hometrack • Land Registry • Electoral Roll

  25. Conclusions • Lots of relevant data sources. No source is sufficiently reliable on its own. • New developments have a significantly different population to local stock dwellings. • New dwellings become stock dwellings only over a long period

  26. Finally • http://schoolplaceplan.jot.com/WikiHome • A Wiki site devoted to the sharing and exchange of information and ideas about forecasting the population in new dwellings. • These pages will be posted as will my notes. • Password from stephen@efm-ltd.co.uk

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