Understanding Rural Population Loss

1. UnderstandingRuralPopulationLoss Iveta Palková IBA

2. Economicgrowth in 1990s includedrural US (contrastwithpreviousyears) • Povertyratesdeclined in ruralcounties 85% in1989-1999 • 1 in 4rural lost pop. In 1990-2000 (5% and more) - many are agricultural, and have no solutionfor a change • 3 characteristicslikelyforlossof pop. 1) Locationawayfrom metro areas 2) LowPopulationDensity 3) Lowlevelofnaturalamenities • Ifthesecharacteristicswereincluded in countiestheywouldntlosepeople - Industrialagriculture, casinos, prisonshelped

3. Populationlossis more than a questionofJobAvailability • EconomicModels - Highpoverty=Populationloss • Opportunitiesdecline– povertyrises – peoplemove • Outmigration - reducespoverty rate and equalizesthroughareas • Twofactsrefutethis model: 1st – poverty over 20%pop.loss had theseconditionsfordecades 2nd – they’re distinctareas • HighPoverty – South,Midwest,NativeAmericansareas (Figure 1) • PopulationLoss – Center, Northeast, South • Highpovertyarea – highschoolcompletionisrelativelylow • Populationloss in lowpovertyarea – peopleprefersize and densityofplace

5. Jobs-decline in urbanmanufacturing, lowpayingservicesector - workerslackinghighschooldegree (cantexpectbetterwages)-outmigrationisdiminished - loweducationareashavepopulationloss • Populationlossareas- haveeconomic base dependent on agriculture (agricultureemploysfewer and fewerpeople) • Whatdistinguishesareasofpopulationgrowthfromareasofdeclineisnottheabsenceofagricultureasmuchasthelackofotherindustry

6. Settlementpatterns and theProblemofaccess • Access to serviceisnot a problem in or near metro areas • Nonmetroareas are sufficientfor most needs • Verythinlysettledareas – accessis a major problem • Problemofaccessincreasedbecausepeopleexpectgreaterspecialization • Problems in remoteareas- employment,lowwagejobs,employersseeklessskilledworkers • Scale to measurecountyremoteness(by Ghelfi and Parker): • Adjacent to a metro areaof 1 milion or more people • Adjacent to a smaller metro area • Notadjacentbutwith a densityof over 10,1 people per squaremile • Notadjacentbutwith a densityoffewer10,1 people per squaremile

7. Ghelfi and Parkerdistinguishnonadjacent by sizeof a place,butdensitymaybe more importantforreasons: • -communityboundaries are diffuse in ruralareas=ruralsprawl -peoplemovefromtown to opencountyareasevenwhentheydonthaveto (theyoftenshop in one, work in another and live in neither) • -services are oftenbeyondparticularcommunities:health,schooletc,spanseveraltowns -employerslook to locallabormarketratherthanparticulartown (density more importantthantownsize) • -10,1 persons per squaremileislowestdensityfornonmetrocounties • -werefer to lowdensityremotecounties „frontiercounties“ (2persons per squaremile) • Thismap (Fig2) - LakeSuperior,mountainousregions,east=FewFrotnierCounties - Greatplains,Rockymountain,Center-West=LargelyFrontierCounties

9. Dependence on agriculturereflectslessthepresenceofagriculturethanabsenceofotherindustries • Thirdofcountyis in crops no matterwherethecountyislocated

10. Frontiercounties are more likely to be „Farming-Dependent“ -Rarelyattractmanufacturers or otheremployers -3% „manufacturing-dependent“ -More likely to losepopulation (over half had fewerpeople in 2000 than in 1990, over thirdlost 5%)

11. NaturalAmenities • Peoplemove to ruralareastoenjoyslowerpaced,communitylifeand foroutdoors (lakes,mountains) • To measurenaturalamenitiesweuse 6 items: • Averagejanuarytemperature • Januarydaysofsun • Temperature in summer • Lowjulyhumidity • Percent ofcountythatissurfacewater • Topologicalvariation • Associatedwith a countyschange in population and employment • Highestscoring=mountainwest,Florida • Lowestscoring=Northcentralregion (FIG5)

13. Bestcropland-lowest in naturalammenities • Higherproportionofland in crops-lesslikely to berecreationcounty (FIG6)

14. 3 of 4 frontiercountieswithbelowaveragenaturalamenitiesclassifiedasfarmdependent(fig7)

15. Populationloss in the 1990´s wasstronglyrelated to bothnaturalamenities and frotnier status • 70%offrontiercounties in 1990-2000 lost over 5%

16. Loss in highamenityfrontiercounties are ascribed to mineclosures • Farmdependentcounties-locationmatters-frontierstatus+lownaturalamenities=pop.loss (1990-2000)

17. Sourcesofpopulationloss • Weconsideredlosswithcharacteristicslikeremoteness, dependance on farming, lownaturalamenities • Frontiercountiesloss pop. In 1990´s (becauseofqualityoflife) • Reason to movethereonlyforfamilytiesofnaturalamenities • Smalllabor,low-payjobs,poverty rate nothigh • Demographics(pop.loss):outmigration,declinedbirthrate,olderpopulation • Pop.Loss(nonmetroarea)factors:Geography(remoteness)-most sailent,Naturalresourcesbase, Socioeconomic(poverty,edu),demography(age 65<) • Farm-dependable-pop.lossbecauseofgeography • Promotingeducation in ruralareas-outmigration,pop.loss • Poverty rate ishighlyrelated to youngadulthighschoolcompeltion rate • Ifpoverty rate exceedsthenorm-thegreaterchanceofpop.loss • Itsnotclear to whatextentpresenceofelderlypeopleisreasonforpop.loss in past and in future

18. Whysomelow-amenityfrontiercountiesgained pop. • A quarter (56)oflow-amenitycountiesgained pop. In 1990´s • 12 ofthemrepresented a turnaround -Istherelesson to belearned? • Research: in 9-casinos opened, in 3-prisons(jobs+inamtes),meatpacking-Growthwashispanic,nonhispanicmoved • In 2(minesota,wisconsin)-seasonalrecreation,secondhomedevelopment • 9 on interstates or near city gainedbecauseofruralsprawl • Others:religiousmigration,expansionofmanufacturing • Except 2nd home and recreation, growthinvolved new employer • Rareevent in minesota-snowmobilebussines in1954 (5000jobs) • Frontiercounties-difficult to live and do bussines in • In somecases new amenititeshelpedgrowth

19. Summary and Conclusion • US property in1990´s didn´textend in manyruralareas-highpoverty,pop.loss(decliningemplyment) • Farmdependent are more likely to lose pop. (remote,lowdensity,lownat,amenities) • Highpoverty(missisipi,apalachia,North,Iowa,Southwestminesota)-lownaturalamenitiesscale • Frontiercounties-mustdeveloprecreation or willlsoe more people • Internet mayhelpisolation, butthewant to moveto city with more densitywillprobablynotgoaway

20. Thankyouforyourattention.