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Baseline projections of European air quality up to 2020

M. Amann, I. Bertok, R. Cabala, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas, C. Heyes, Z. Klimont, K. Kupiainen, W. Winiwarter, W. Sch öpp. Baseline projections of European air quality up to 2020. Contents. Driving forces Emission projections Air pollution impacts Uncertainties The wider context Conclusions.

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Baseline projections of European air quality up to 2020

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  1. M. Amann, I. Bertok, R. Cabala, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas, C. Heyes, Z. Klimont, K. Kupiainen, W. Winiwarter,W. Schöpp Baseline projections of European air quality up to 2020

  2. Contents • Driving forces • Emission projections • Air pollution impacts • Uncertainties • The wider context • Conclusions

  3. Driving forces • CAFE baseline projections • PRIMES energy projections with further climate measures • CAPRI agricultural projections, pre-CAP reform

  4. Economic driversassumed for the PRIMES “with climate measures” energy projection

  5. Emissions • Emission projections developed with the RAINS model • Assuming implementation of present emission control legislation • Ignoring implications of NEC and AQ Daughter directives

  6. Land-based emissions “With climate measures” baseline projection, EU-25

  7. Emissions from sea regions SO2 NOx ----- EU-15----- New Member States---- Sea regions

  8. Impacts • Health impacts of PM • Health impacts of O3 • Vegetation impacts of O3 • Acidification of forest soils • Acidification of semi-natural ecosystems • Acidification of lakes • Eutrophication of terrestrial ecosystems

  9. Loss in life expectancyattributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months] Provisional calculations with generic assumptions on urban increments

  10. Premature deaths attributable to ozone[cases/year] Provisional calculations with 50*50 km grid average concentrations

  11. Percent of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads

  12. Semi-natural ecosystems (e.g., Natura2000)with acid deposition above critical loads [km2]

  13. Percent of lake catchments area with acid deposition above critical loads

  14. Percent of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above critical loads for eutrophication

  15. What will be the situation in 2020? • Remaining air quality impacts • Major sources of emissions

  16. Remaining problem areas in 2020Light blue = no risk Health - PM Health+vegetation - ozone Vegetation – N dep. Forests – acid dep. Semi-natural – acid dep. Freshwater – acid dep.

  17. Sources of primary PM2.5 emissions “With climate measures” scenario, EU-15

  18. Sources of NOx emissions“With climate measures” scenario, EU-25

  19. Sources of VOC emissions“With climate measures” scenario, EU-25

  20. Sources of SO2 emissions “With climate measures” scenario, EU-25

  21. Uncertainties Four types of uncertainties highlighted by the RAINS review team: • Lack of scientific understanding • Assumptions, simplifications etc. in the handling of data and the design of the RAINS compartment models • Statistical variance in input data, etc. • Socio-economic and technological development

  22. 1500 1500 1200 1200 900 900 600 600 300 300 0 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Coal, oil Wood Diesel, gasoline Other (1) Lack in scientific understandingPM Health impacts Total PM2.5 emissions Black carbon CAFE baseline emission projections for PM EU-15 [kt]

  23. Urban low-level PM2.5 emissions (2) Model designSpatial resolution is critical Urban increment of PM2.5 (year 2000)Provisional City-Delta results (µg/m3)

  24. (3) Statistical variance in data Inter-annual meteorological variabilityof PM2.5 1997 1999 Grid average concentrations,annual mean [µg/m3] from known anthropog. sources excluding sec. org. aerosols. Calculations with emissions for the year 2000 2000 2003

  25. (4) Uncertainties in socio-economic developmentRange of the 3 CAFE baseline emission projections [kt] ----- EU-15---- New Member States

  26. The wider context • Long-term trends • Hemispheric background

  27. Long-term trends of EU-25 emissions“with climate measures”,relative to year 2000 [= 100%]

  28. Increase in background ozone“Current legislation” scenario, 2000-2030 [ppbv] Emission projections of NOx, CO, CH4: IIASA, TM3 model runs: JRC-IES

  29. Conclusions • Emissions will further decline • But: Air quality remains threat to human health • Sustainable conditions for vegetation will not be reached • Relevance of sources will change • Ship emissions will surpass those from land-based EU sources • Energy projections will influence future emissions and emission control costs

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