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Early warning Systems in Sudan Meteorological Authority

Early warning Systems in Sudan Meteorological Authority. Crop and RAngeland Monitoring Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development 26-30 September 2011 Nairobi Kenya. Ahmed M Abdel Karim Sudan Meteorological Authority Ahmed@ersad.gov.sd. Climate.

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Early warning Systems in Sudan Meteorological Authority

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  1. Early warning Systems in Sudan Meteorological Authority Crop and RAngeland Monitoring Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development 26-30 September 2011 Nairobi Kenya Ahmed M Abdel Karim Sudan Meteorological Authority Ahmed@ersad.gov.sd

  2. Climate • Climate and weather over Sudan is controlled by the following weather system: • Azores anticyclone (Sahara) • St. Helena anticyclone • Siberian anticyclone • Mascarene anticyclone • The monsoon • Sudan Thermal low • The ITCZ • The Easterly Jet Stream

  3. Winter Season (NDJF) Advancing Monsoon Season (MAM)

  4. Retreating Monsoon Season (Oct) Rainy Season (JAS)

  5. Seasons • Four Season are identified: • Winter Season (NDJF) • Advancing Monsoon Season (MAM) • Rainy Season (JJAS) • Retreating Monsoon Season (Oct) • This lead to the rainfall distribution which is the most important element in monitoring and forecasting. JJAS is main rainy season

  6. Monthly rainfall distribution over Sudan

  7. Rainy Season (JJAS) July normal rainfall distribution during the base period (1971-2000) [in mm]

  8. Natural Hazards and its impact in Africa

  9. Patterns of casualties by natural hazards in WMO Regions SOURCE: Global results of the WMO Country-Level DPM Survey: MaryamGolnaraghi, Chief of DPM Programme, December 4, 2006

  10. SOURCE: Global results of the WMO Country-Level DPM Survey: MaryamGolnaraghi, Chief of DPM Programme, December 4, 2006

  11. Patterns of economic losses by natural hazards in WMO Regions SOURCE: Global results of the WMO Country-Level DPM Survey: MaryamGolnaraghi, Chief of DPM Programme, December 4, 2006

  12. Monitoring Different types of report are be issued on different time scale

  13. Agrometeorological products • Monthly Bulletin • Dekadal Bulletin • Pentad Bulletin • Climate bulletin • SAMIS (Sudan Agro-meteorological information System)

  14. Monthly Bulletin

  15. Monthly Bulletin

  16. Dekadal Bulletin

  17. Dekadal Bulletin

  18. Dekadal Bulletin

  19. Dekadal Bulletin

  20. Dekadal Bulletin (WSI)

  21. Pentad Bulletin

  22. Pentad Bulletin

  23. The Dekad rainfall report 25

  24. Sudan Agro-Meteorological Information System (SAMIS ): Is an operational system for the production of agro-meteorological information from meteorological station and satellite data, installed at the Sudan Meteorological Authority. SAMIS plays a fundamental role as the provider of core information for early warning and vulnerability assessment and mapping activities. It also enables the SMA to fulfill its role of providing agro-meteorological information for users involved in the monitoring and management of agricultural, environmental and hydrological resources.

  25. SAMIS products • Dekadal Rainfall Amounts • Dekadal Rainfall Anomaly (ratio against climatology) • Cumulative Rainfall from March to current dekadal • Cumulative Rainfall Anomaly (ratio against climatology) • Dekadal Number of Rain Days • Length of Currently Active Dry Spell (maximum over 30days) • Vegetation Index • Vegetation Index Difference from long term mean • Monthly Rainfall • Monthly Rainfall Anomaly • Monthly Number of Rain Days

  26. SAMIS report

  27. Rainfall Analysis – 10 Day Amounts • 10 day rainfall amounts produced by SAMIS at SMA are based on a combination of METEOSAT satellite and synoptic gauge data. • Rainfall climatology is similarly derived from a combination of historical data from the two sources. 31

  28. Rainfall Analysis – Cumulative Amounts • Cumulative amounts are obtained by summing the dekadal estimates starting from Dekad 1 of March until present. • The climatological cumulative are likewise derived by summing the dekadal climatological estimates over the same period of time. 32

  29. The cumulative rainfall amounts display the usual organization in latitude bands (as the rainfall moves north following the ITCZ). In relative terms, significant above average departures 33

  30. The rainfall total for the dekadal and its departure for the Same period The rainfall total for the dekadal and its departure for the Same period SAMIS is at http://ersad.gov.sd 34

  31. Rainfall AS Parentage of Average

  32. Cumulative Rainfall as % of Average

  33. Total Rainfall

  34. Dekads Since Start of Growing Season

  35. Number of Wet Dekads

  36. Moisture Index

  37. End of Growing Season

  38. Location Analysis: RVT Plots

  39. Rainfall and Vegetation Plots Planting Rains Start of Green Up End of Rainfall Season

  40. Rainfall and Vegetation Plots

  41. Seasonal Forecast Prediction

  42. Numerical Weather Prediction Models

  43. 22 August 2010

  44. 23 August 2010

  45. 24 August 2010

  46. 25 August 2010

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