Tarik M. Yousef School of Foreign Service Georgetown University

1. Tarik M. Yousef School of Foreign Service Georgetown University

2. The Social Contract in MENA Between the 1940s and 1950s, governments established redistributive and interventionist social contracts: Principle features included: • Emphasis on equity in the design of economic and social policy. • Central planning and state management of markets. • Adoption of ISI and protectionism. • State as provider of welfare and social services. • Focus on “unity of the nation” in the political arena. • Corporatist structures of representation.

3. Demography Has Undermined the Existing Social Contract • MENA started with the highest fertility rates in the 1950s. • The region experienced a slow and extended fertility decline until the 1980s. • It witnessed a massive reduction in fertility in the 1990s.

4. From Delayed Transition to an Extended Youth Bulge MENA’s slow and extended demographic transition has implied that the region would have an extended and large youth cohort.

5. From Delayed Transition to Rapid Labor Force Growth MENA’s slow and extended transition has also implied that the region would have the highest and most persistent labor market pressures anywhere in the world in the past half-century.

6. Young Workers Are Increasingly More Educated • MENA witnessed the fastest expansion in educational attainment in the world between 1980 and 2000. • As a result, the new generations of workers, male and female, are the most educated in the region’s history.

7. Demography and Education Are Feminizing the Labor Force • Female labor force is growing annually by over 5% due to the effects of demography and higher participation. • As a result, the share of females in the labor force has risen from 26% in 1990 to close to 32% in 2000.

8. Youth High Unemployment in the 1990s Unemployment falls disproportionately on the youth, with their share in the unemployed ranging from 36% in Morocco to 73% in Syria, and a MENA average of 53%.

9. Female Unemployment Is Rising Since the Early 1990s Unemployment rates tend to be higher for females, close to 50% higher than unemployment rates for males. Like their male counterparts, unemployment rates are highest for educated females.

10. Economic Exclusion Mirrors Political Exclusion MENA has a significant governance gap compared to the rest of the world especially in the areas of political inclusion and public accountability.

11. But It Especially Affects Women in the Region Improvements in health and education indicators have not translated into greater political empowerment for women. For example, women have the smallest share of seats in national parliaments of any region.

12. Youth, Exclusion and Conflict Large young cohorts experiencing economic dislocation and political exclusion often present fertile ground for identity groups seeking change through violent means.

13. The economic difficulties of the past two decades have called into question the status of the region’s postwar social contract especially among the youth. • States and societies are confronting the reality that the old model is no longer sustainable. • If states can no longer serve as the guarantors of “well being”, they can become partners in creating opportunities for future generations. • But this requires governments to redefine their role in economy and society. In other words, a new vision of state-society relations. • Governments will need the instruments to manage the difficult transition under conditions of economic volatility and social vulnerability. • To move forward, governments themselves must link economic performance to governance. They must create mechanisms to ensure their own accountability. Toward A New Social Contract