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GFE precipitation forecast verification for Victoria

GFE precipitation forecast verification for Victoria. 1 Nov 2008 – 3 Feb 2009 Verification dataset: Operational daily rain gauge analyses @ 0.25 º resolution. Rain amount and area. Observed and forecast rain. PME = 1.05. PME = 0.75. PME = 0.28. PME = 0.38.

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GFE precipitation forecast verification for Victoria

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  1. GFE precipitation forecast verification for Victoria 1 Nov 2008 – 3 Feb 2009 Verification dataset: Operational daily rain gauge analyses @ 0.25º resolution

  2. Rain amount and area

  3. Observed and forecast rain

  4. PME = 1.05 PME = 0.75 PME = 0.28 PME = 0.38 Performance for day+1 forecastsrainfall ≥ 0.2 mm Frequency bias Perfect=1 Probability of detection Perfect=1 False alarm ratio Perfect=0 Equitable threat score Perfect=1

  5. PME = 1.00 PME = 0.60 PME = 0.39 PME = 0.38 Performance for day+1 forecastsrainfall ≥ 5 mm Frequency bias Perfect=1 Probability of detection Perfect=1 False alarm ratio Perfect=0 Equitable threat score Perfect=1

  6. Error in rainfall amount

  7. Error in rainfall occurrence

  8. Preliminary summary • Larger dataset needed!!! • Forecasters may have erred on the side of caution • prefer to predict too much rain rather than too little? • PME input guidance was not biased • Over-prediction a problem for light rain but probably not for heavy rain • Very little difference in performance between morning and evening issues of GFE • GFE and PME showed similar prediction skill, using RMSE and equitable threat score as summary metrics.

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