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Weather Forecast Verification Using

Weather Forecast Verification Using. Matt Pocernich Research Application Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research September 29 th , 2006. Decision Support. Societal Impacts. Ausentes. DWFE Predicted Reflectivity, t=+48h WRF-NMM 10:00 Z, 8 Mar 05. Ayudas. Falsas alarmas.

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Weather Forecast Verification Using

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  1. Weather Forecast Verification Using Matt Pocernich Research Application Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research September 29th, 2006

  2. Decision Support Societal Impacts Ausentes DWFE Predicted Reflectivity, t=+48h WRF-NMM 10:00 Z, 8 Mar 05 Ayudas Falsas alarmas Observado Pronóstico Facets of Research Applications Lab * Aviation Applications * Hydrometeorological Applications * National Security Applications • Weather Systems and Assessment • Forecast Verification and Statistics

  3. Why Verify? • Quantify forecast improvements • Identify forecast limitations • Compare models • Provide diagnostics to model developers and forecasters

  4. Types of forecasts • Binary or multiple categories forecasts • Point forecasts of continuous variables • Probabilistic forecasts • Chance of an event • Full probability distribution • Ensemble forecasts • Grid-base spatial forecasts

  5. Active area of research • Biased data - spatially, temporally, as a function of intensity • Spatial forecasts - issues are complicated by alignment, geometry , intensity and varying scale. • Spatial probabilistic ensemble forecasts • Developing scale statistics incorporating values of different users.

  6. Why R? • R is Open Source! • R is free • Runs on all operating systems • All code is visible • Over 1,000 packages donated. • Very large, active user base.

  7. Origins of R • Influenced by two existing languages: • Becker, Chambers & Wilks' S (ATT) • Sussman's Scheme • Initially written by Ross Ihaka and Robert Gentleman • R-0.49 23-Apr-1997 05:53 959k • R-2.4 October 5, 2006 ~ 14Meg

  8. The R Community • Developers • R Core Group (17 members), only 2 have left since 1997 • Major update in April/October (freeze dates, beta versions, bug tracking, ...) • Mailing lists • Help list ~ 100 messages/day, archived, searchable. • Packages – more than 1000 packages (9/2006)

  9. r-project.org • Contains everything • Source code • Documentation • Newsletter • Mailing list • Packages

  10. Exercise 1 (Open ex1.r script) • Exploring the R environment • Sources of help • Importing/ exporting data • Data frames and classes of objects • Simple plots

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