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Washington DC, 11 October 2011. Modeling Primary Energy Substitution in Asia Pacific. Roberto F. Aguilera. OBJECTIVES. To present projections of the future energy mix in Asia Pacific using a Global Energy Market Model (GEM) To discuss effects of energy policy
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Washington DC, 11 October 2011 Modeling Primary Energy Substitution in Asia Pacific Roberto F. Aguilera
OBJECTIVES • To present projections of the future energy mix in Asia Pacific using a Global Energy Market Model (GEM) • To discuss effects of energy policy • To assess the availability of natural gas
Asia Pacific Energy Mix (Reference) Source: Aguilera and Ripple (2011c), Applied Energy, under review
Asia Pacific Energy Mix (Alternative 1) POLICIES: • Gas price setting • Coal subsidies • Restrict foreign investment Source: Aguilera and Ripple (2011c), Applied Energy, under review
Asia Pacific Energy Mix (Alternative 2) POLICIES: • Environmental (e.g. taxes on fuel, emissions, subsidies for NGVs,…) • Deregulation, privatization • Consistency across borders • Nuclear restrictions Source: Aguilera and Ripple (2011c), Applied Energy, under review
Asia Pacific H/C Ratio Source: Aguilera and Ripple (2011c), Applied Energy, under review
USGS World Petroleum Assessment (2000) • USGS (2000) divides Asia Pacific into 290 provinces • Evaluated 77 provinces for known + undiscovered gas quantities
USGS World Petroleum Assessment (2000) 6. Tarim Basin 3. Greater Sarawak Basin 2. Kutei Basin 5. Ganges-Br. Delta 4. Malay Basin 1. Northwest Shelf
Variable Shape Distribution (VSD) Model • Used to estimate volumes natural gas in previously unassessed provinces • Unlike other models, VSD is not based on an assumed distribution (e.g. Pareto or lognormal)
VSD(Variable Shape Distribution) Model Source: Aguilera and Ripple (2011a), Applied Energy
VSD(Variable Shape Distribution) Model Source: Aguilera and Ripple (2011a), Applied Energy
VSD(Variable Shape Distribution) Model Source: Aguilera and Ripple (2011a), Applied Energy
VSD (Variable Shape Distribution) Model Source: Aguilera and Ripple (2011a), Applied Energy
Asia Pacific Natural Gas Endowment Source: Aguilera and Ripple (2011a), Applied Energy
Asia Pacific Natural Gas Endowment Cumulative Production (264 TCFG)Source: BP (2011) Source: Aguilera and Ripple (2011a), Applied Energy
Distribution of Gas Endowment by Country TOTAL: 2,240 TCFG Source: Aguilera and Ripple (2011a), Applied Energy
Asia Pacific Gas Supply Cost Curve Source: BP (2011) Source: Aguilera and Ripple (2011b), WPC
SHALE GAS Source: Aguilera et al. (2008), World Petroleum Congress
SHALE GAS TECHNOLOGY: HYDRAULIC FRACTURING Source: American Petroleum Institute (2010)
AUSTRALIAN GAS RESOURCE PYRAMID Source: Geoscience Australia (2010)
AUSTRALIAN SHALE GAS BASINS Source: Geoscience Australia (2010) Source: adapted from USGS (2000)
WORLD GAS SUPPLY CURVE Source: Ripple (2011), Australian Ambassador’s Speaker Series
WORLD GAS SUPPLY CURVE Source: International Energy Agency (2009)
CONCLUSIONS • Natural gas in Asia Pacific more abundant and economicthancommonlyassumed • Appropriate energy policy needed to access potential with minimal environmental impact • Gas will have positive impact on energy security, environment, economic growth
Washington DC, 11 October 2011 Modeling Primary Energy Substitution in Asia Pacific THANK YOU r.aguilera@curtin.edu.au