US EPA Global Change Research Program: Aquatic Ecosystem Research and Assessment

1. US EPA Global Change Research Program:Aquatic Ecosystem Research and Assessment Presentation to Workshop on Modeling for the World Water Development Report Susan Herrod Julius Global Change Research Program Office of Research and Development U.S. Environmental Protection Agency December 11-12, 2000

2. Presentation Focus - San Francisco Case Study

3. Global Change Research Program (GCRP) • Program Goal: Assess the Consequences of Global Change: • Air Quality • Human Health • Water Quality • Ecosystem Health

4. GCRP Guiding Principles • Assessment orientation Evaluation of a process, program or activity for the purpose of identifying, describing, and projecting causes and consequences of environmental stressors that matter to society. • Engage both analysts and stakeholders • Examine interdependent and interactive effects

5. Aquatic Ecosystem Assessment • Understand the effect of global changes on aquatic ecosystems and their services • Approaches • Literature reviews • Expert opinion • Regional Assessments funded by EPA • Case studies

6. Case Study - San Francisco Bay and Basin • Resources • renowned for its natural beauty; great biological diversity • high number of endangered species • used for international commerce • variety of recreational opportunities • Current Condition • severe shrinkage and isolation of natural habitats • altered flows in streams and rivers • extensive introductions of non-native plants and animals • pollution of the air, land, and water • intensively urbanized and modified

7. Stressors • Global climate change • Rapidly growing human population • Interactions of climate with the human pressures and population growth • Increased water demand

8. Freshwater Estuarine Climate Change Temp, Precip, etc. Land Use Agriculture Urbanization Aquifer Use Recreation Climate Change Local Land Use / Processes Aquifer Use Coastal Protection Crustal Movement Stressors Global Sea Level Rise Local Sea Level Rise Rivers, Wetlands, Lakes and Reservoirs Receiving Systems Estuarine / Coastal Habitat SLAMM Changes in Inundation Regime Habitat Gain/Loss Population Changes Impacts to Nature Reserves Invasive Species Assessment of Envir. Changes WEAP21 Aquatic habitat change Wetland Habitat Changes Instream Flow / HSI models Population Change of Aquatic Biota Invasive Species Community Shifts Impacts to Values Resources Likely Eco Effects Population Changes Impacts to Nature Reserves Invasive Species Changes in Ecological Services Wildlife Recreation Hunting Fishing Hiking, walking Identif. and Assmt. of affected eco. services Changes in Ecological Services Fishing Wildlife Recreation Water storage

9. San Francisco Study is Consistent with Our Guiding Principles • Assessment orientation • integrates scientific models and analyses • integrates effects of all potentially important interacting anthropogenic stressors within the system • Ecosystem services • focuses on societally important ecological services as endpoints • Stakeholder involvement • molds analyses and communication of results to be relevant to stakeholders • Tools • develops tools and approaches that have wider geographic applicability