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U.S. EPA Global Change Research Program: Getting the Job Done Right

U.S. EPA Global Change Research Program: Getting the Job Done Right. Board of Scientific Counselors U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Global Change Research Program Washington, DC – September 27, 2005. Kenneth A. Colburn Symbiotic Strategies, LLC kcolburn@symbioticstrategies.com

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U.S. EPA Global Change Research Program: Getting the Job Done Right

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  1. U.S. EPAGlobal Change Research Program:Getting the Job Done Right Board of Scientific Counselors U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Global Change Research Program Washington, DC – September 27, 2005 Kenneth A. Colburn Symbiotic Strategies, LLC kcolburn@symbioticstrategies.com 617-784-6975

  2. Speaker Background • Business & Industry Association of NH, Energy & Environment • New Hampshire’s Air Director • First GHG registry & power sector “4-P” laws. • STAPPA Climate Chair • Represented states at UNFCCC COPs last 10 years. • NESCAUM Executive Director • Center for Climate Strategies, etc. • Climate planning processes: CT, ME, AZ, NM, NC…

  3. GCRP: How’s It Doing?(How) • GOAL: Enhance likelihood of human health and environmental improvement by informing policy decisions in a timely fashion. • Cornerstone for effective state & local decisions: “If it’s not specific to here, it’s marginally useful.” • “Place-Based” state-specific approaches are the sine qua non for state & local decision making. • What information do decision makers need? Talk with them! (i.e., need stakeholder orientation) • Some education often needed, but not one way! • Creates upward spiral: Stakeholder questions & input => better assessments => more questions & input...

  4. GCRP: How’s It Doing?(What) • Areas of focused assessment are very sound: • Air Quality • Water Quality • Human Health • Ecosystems • But… We don’t only want static assessments; “Teach us to fish…” • Leverage, empower decision makers with tools and models

  5. and Opportunities Water Eco- systems Infra- structure Risks Human Health Air Opportunities First-Mover Advantage “Tune” the Economy Competitive Advantage Climate Risks … Climate Impacts Defense (Respond) Offense (Lead)

  6. Sustainability Energy Efficiency & Renewables Path (MORE jobs, reliable, secure, clean, and exportable) Competitive Advantage Lost to Delay Energy Intensity Path (LESS jobs, reliable, secure, clean, and exportable) Now Later Example: Energy Opportunities Higher ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY Lower TIME

  7. Source: U.S. Global Change Research Program Competitive Advantage Example • Who will be first “out of” paper, and “into” furniture? • UK has PRECIS; EU has PRUDENCE; Quebec has OURANOS; what do U.S. states have to “tune” their economies?

  8. Global Climate Models Meteorology Health/Valuation Function Policy Goal Emissions Energy Ozone Model O3; PM Models Health Benefits Emissions Expenditures Ambient Concentrations Economics Wet/Dry Deposition; Ag/Forests Health Effects Incidence & Cost- Benefit Key Economic Indicators Vital Missing Tool: Integrated Modeling Framework for Air Quality

  9. Vital Missing Tool: Integrated Modeling Framework for Air Quality

  10. Vital Missing Tool: Integrated Modeling Framework for Air Quality Global Climate Models Regional-Scale (or Finer) Climate Models Meteorology Health/Valuation Function Policy Goal Emissions Climate Impacts Models Energy Ozone Model O3 & PM Models Health Benefits Emissions Expenditures Ambient Concentrations & Temp Economics Wet/Dry Deposition; Ag/Forests Costs, Benefits, & Adaptations due to Climate Change Health Effects Incidence & Cost- Benefit Key Economic Indicators NE-MARKAL CMAQ COBRA & BenMAP REMI? IMPLAN?

  11. Meeting decision makers “where they’re at…” Key Conclusions (1) • GCRP = underpinning state air quality progress. • GCRP is right-on-the-money with How; What. • Place-based approach • Stakeholder orientation • Areas of focused assessment • Development of / support for air quality, health, energy, and economic models • Bottom line: “When decision makers recognize that they need more info, you’re doing the right thing…”

  12. Key Conclusions (2) • Success isn’t static; states need: • More assessments • Impact of climate change on air quality, especially ozone & PM nonattainment • Non-linear responses scare us greatly • More models, modeling • Economic modeling • Adaptation options modeling • Environmental health tracking • Broader application & communication • Greater Level of Effort => More Resources, but there’s literally no more important or productive effort underway.

  13. Thank Youfor Your Timeand Attention!

  14. Is It Working in the States? • Look at Connecticut (partial list): • CGA approved 2005 CT Climate Action Plan. • Clean cars (Pavley/LEV) & hybrid tax incentives. • Mandatory reporting, registry & inventory. • Energy Independence Act– EE, RE, CHP, DG, etc. • RPS & renewable energy purchases. • Energy efficiency standards for appliances. • Environmentally preferable products. • Agriculture, land preservation & local food. • NG Conservation Fund (proposed). • Oil Conservation Fund (proposed). • Diesel reductions (being proposed).

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