Status of SEARCH Study of Environmental Arctic Change

1. Status of SEARCHStudy of Environmental Arctic Change A system-scale, cross-disciplinary, long-term arctic research program Peter Schlosser SEARCH SSC meeting, Washington D.C., 11/5 – 11/6, 2009 http://www.arcus.org/SEARCH/index.php

2. Outline • Evolution of SEARCH • Implementation status • International collaborations • Perspectives

3. Arctic in the global context http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM2feb07.pdf

4. SEARCH Objectives The overall objective of SEARCH is to Understand the nature, extent and future development of the system-scale change presently seen in the Arctic.

5. SEARCH Objectives This requires: • Examining if such changes have happened before(paleo studies) • Following the evolution of the changes (integrated Arctic system observing system) • Understanding the forcing mechanisms and feedbacks that control the changes (synthesis and modeling) • Understanding the interaction between changes in the physical/chemical, biological, and human domains (‘Human/Environment Interface’)

6. Design of SEARCH • SEARCH is the science community’s response to one of the largest scientific challenges with socioeconomic impact • SEARCH addresses anthropogenically driven changes in the context of natural variability in a region with amplified global change signals • SEARCH is designed to provide answers to the question of how the Arctic system reacts to the forcing imposed in low latitudes and how internal dynamics in the Arctic feed back to the global climate system

7. Structure of SEARCH • SEARCH is built around three basic elements: • Observing Change • Understanding Change • Responding to Change • Although initially debated, this structure has proven useful and successful in moving the development of SEARCH along • It is also the right approach to address the human/environment interface • Each of these elements is at a different stage of implementation

8. Evolution of SEARCH • SEARCH originated from a community – driven process starting with a workshop at APL in November 1997. • Workshop was triggered by observations in Arctic Ocean that could easily be related to changes in other domains (e.g., atmosphere, sea ice). • Outcome was brought to attention of OAII SSC and SEARCH was created as a program. • The program was designed as interagency initiative and a Steering Committee was formed in 1999. • Science Plan published in 2001. • Hypotheses heavily influenced by AO/NAO climate mode hypotheses. • Initial Implementation strategy published in 2003.

9. Evolution of SEARCH (cont.) • Panels and working groups met in May 2005 to prioritize implementation strategy and write implementation plan: report available on www. SIW report still scientifically valid, although priorities should be revisited, especially concerning the ‘Responding to Change’ element. • Integration of SEARCH with IPY: Initial focus on observing systems: AON. • Recent events: Focus firmly on secular change

10. Implementation of SEARCH • SIW report still scientifically valid, although priorities should be revisited. • Observing system elements are in place. International coordination of these elements has started. • ISAC has been formed and launched under IASC and AOSB umbrella. • Understanding Change component has to be coordinated andstrengthened. • Responding to Change element has to be designed and built.

11. Overall SEARCH Strategy Science Plan & Implementation Strategy at:http://arcus.org/SEARCH/index.php Observing system Focus of IPY AO Understanding Change SEARCH/ARCSS Task Force Responding to Change; Needs implementation

12. SEARCH needs to observe the transition of the Arctic system from its present state into a warmer world. This will require a new type of observing system The system has to be part of an international,pan-Arctic network, and observe across domains (physical, biogeochemical, and socioeconomic). ADI (AON Design and Implementation) Task Force will attempt to optimize the system. Collaborations with other programs are in place (DAMOCLES) and/or under discussion (ArcticNet). ISAC is designed to provide scientific underpinning for international Arctic Observing System (SAON?) Observing System

13. Understanding Change • There are funded projects addressing the SEARCH Understanding Change needs. • Some of these projects are classified under SEARCH, others under ARCSS or are residing within non – NSF programs. • No nucleus has been established for the Understanding Change element of SEARCH. • SEARCH/ARCSS Task Force has been proposed to establish a robust and efficient program aimed at understanding the Arctic system and its change

14. Surprises: Sea Ice http://climateprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/NSIDC-2009-Sept.gif http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=09&fd=12&fy=1979&sm=09&sd=12&sy=2008

15. Surprises: Sea Ice http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/2009_outlook/minimum/downloads/pdf/1979-2009-trend-minimum.pdf http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=09&fd=12&fy=1979&sm=09&sd=12&sy=2008

16. Sea-ice trends: ice extent

17. SEARCH/S4D Sea Ice Outlook 09 http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/2009_outlook/summary_report/downloads/pan-arctic/figure-1.pdf

18. Greenland Ice Sheet NSIDC http://cires.colorado.edu/science/groups/steffen/greenland/melt2005/melt2005and1992.5inch.jpg V = 2.8*106 km3 The melt area is increasing … 2007 set new record 18

19. Greenland Ice Sheet http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a003300/a003395/JakobshavnOverheadWdates.1024_web.png Faster flow of outlet glaciers … and faster interaction between surface and grounding line

20. Responding to Change • Recent events including • Drastic changes in the Arctic system beyond those predicted by models and • The releases of the ACIA and IPCC reports have led to an ‘abrupt’ shift in public and political perception. • Science community is now confronted with expectations to provide options for solutions to the problems. • SEARCH is designed to address this demand for solutions. • Responding to Change element has to be implemented

21. Noble Prize for IPCC 2007 http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM2feb07.pdf

22. Arctic/Global Change in the Media … ‘our ability to imagine and purposefully shape the future …’ … ACIA paints ‘grim picture …’

23. International partners: DAMOCLES Developing Arctic Modelling and Observing Capabilities for Long-term Environment Studies • reduce the uncertainties in our understanding of climate change in the Arctic and in the impacts thereof • Synoptic observational coverage of the Arctic Ocean sea-ice cover • Synoptic observation and investigation of atmospheric key processes • Synoptic observation of the Arctic Ocean circulation and key processes • Integration and assimilation of observations with large-scale models • Assessment of impact on environment and humans • User-friendly return of information to the community

24. ‘SEARCH for DAMOCLES’ SSA We are proposing a Specific Support Action “SEARCH for DAMOCLES” based on recent initiatives taken recently in Europe and in the USA in the field of Arctic marine ecosystems and Global change, Arctic Ocean long-term observatories, in order to capitalize on opportunities and significant benefits arising from coordination of large scale research programmes such as the European Integrated Project DAMOCLES for “Developing Arctic Modelling and Observing Capabilities for Long-term Environmental studies” and the US research program SEARCH for “Study of Environmental ARctic CHange”.

26. ISAC • to take a system approach to facilitate expansion and deepening of our knowledge base of the arctic system • to document changes in the Arctic with respect to spatial and temporal patterns. • To project changes into the future • Study options for response to changes

27. SEARCH Challenge • System-scale approach required to study, understand and respond to Arctic Change • Problem crosses traditional domains • Long-term study necessary • International effort required • Program of unprecedented scale and complexity required • Arctic community has to adjust to this challenge

28. Immediate SEARCH Needs • Optimize and sustain Arctic Observing System • Consolidate and enhance Understanding Change activities in support of SEARCH • Build Responding to Change element • New partnership between agencies and science community needed • Create new infrastructure and support system (OPERA) • Increase visibility of SEARCH

29. Summary • SEARCH is still in transition to an operational program • Special nature of the program (long-term, cross-domain, pan-arctic, international, multi-agency, socioeconomic focus) present new challenges. • New models for running fully implemented SEARCH in operational mode are required for science community, agencies and support structure.