Observations of on-going Arctic change

1. Observations of on-going Arctic change Nancy N. Soreide, NOAA PMEL, J. E. Overland, J. A. Richter-Menge, H. Eicken, H. Wiggins, J. Calder

2. Observations of on-going Arctic Change • The international Arctic Sea Ice Outlookwww.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook • A community-wide summary of the expected September Arctic sea ice minimum. • The Arctic Report Cardwww.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard • A concise, scientifically credible and accessible source of information on recent changes in the Arctic. • Future of Arctic Sea Ice and Global Impactswww.arctic.noaa.gov/future • Summarizes important recent Arctic science results for a broader audience, beyond the science literature.

3. Sea Ice OutlookA community-wide summary of expected September Arctic sea ice minimum http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/ Reports issued monthly throughout summer Synthesize community-wide estimates Scientific rationale of the range of estimates of expected minimum of sea ice Not formal predictions for Arctic sea ice extent

4. The Arctic Report Card updated for 2010Tracks recent environmental changes Play video from YouTube or local video file

5. GreenlandRecord-setting high air temperatures, ice loss by melting, and marine-terminating glacier loss.Highest rate melt since 1958, area and duration of ice sheet melt greater than any on record since 1978. Cumulative annual area changes for 35 of the widest Greenland ice sheet marine-terminating outlets. GreenlandRecord setting high temperatures, ice melt, and glacier area loss

6. AtmosphereThere is evidence that the effect of higher air temperatures in the lower Arctic atmosphere in fall is contributing to changes in the atmospheric circulation in both the Arctic and northern mid-latitudes 850 mbgeopotential height field Dec average 1968-1996 Dec 2009 Feb 2010 AtmosphereArctic climate is impacting mid-latitude weather, as seen in Winter 2009-2010

7. This creates the Warm Arctic-Cold Continent Climate Pattern Air temperature anomalies DEC 2009

8. December 2010 Cold Northern Europe and US East Coast More north-south flow & Negative NAO index Two Major winter eventsin a row Attribution Difficult! We can say that loss of sea ice pushes toward a greater chance for a breakdown of the Polar Vortex Also expect large impacts from Chaos, Snow, and Stratospheric influences

9. Sea IceSeptember minimum sea ice extent is third lowest recorded, and there is less thick multiyear sea ice in Beaufort Sea during summer Sea ice age for first week in March 1988 2008 2009 2010 Sea IceSummer sea ice conditions for previous four years well below 1980s and 1990s

10. Biology, Ocean, LandMany indications of warming BiologyRapid environmental change threatens to disrupt current natural cycles OceanUpper ocean showing year-to-year variability without significant trends LandLow winter snow accumulation, warm spring temperatures lead to record low snow cover duration Record low snow cover duration in 2010.

11. Sea Ice Outlook 2010http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/ • A community-wide summary of the expected September Arctic sea ice minimum • Reports are released monthly throughout the summer • Supported in part through the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) • Arctic Report Card 2010 http://www.arctic.noaa.gov • Scientifically credible, annually-updated website designed for managers, scientists and citizens • Updated annually • Supported by the NOAA Climate Program Office through the Arctic Research Program