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WWRP Polar Prediction Project – SERA Elements

Explore the SERA elements and WWRP Polar Prediction Project to improve weather forecasts in polar regions, focusing on adaptation, impacts, and social research. Collaboration with experts, users, and engagement groups is key. Highlighting benefits for residents, infrastructure, environment, and safety.

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WWRP Polar Prediction Project – SERA Elements

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  1. WWRP Polar Prediction Project – SERA Elements Brian Mills Adaptation and Impacts Research, Climate Research Division Environment Canada Faculty of Environment, University of Waterloo Waterloo, ON, Canada N2L 3G1 Brian.Mills@ec.gc.ca+1 519 888 4567 (ext. 35496) Chair, WMO-WWRP-SERA WG ArcticNet (2010) http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/weather_society.html

  2. Opening thoughts • Northern/Canadian bias (bi-polar?) • Limited time/thought thus far • Implementation will require a SERA sub-committee with one liaison to the Steering Group ACIA (2008:991)

  3. WWRP-SERA & Polar Prediction Project Research & Application Interest Groups WWRP Expert Liaison (THORPEX-TIGGE) Core Membership Projects, Demonstrations & Testbeds • social scientists • users • engagers WWRP Expert Liaison (Verification) WWRP Expert Liaison (Mesoscale Weather, THORPEX-RCs,etc.) ICSU/ISSC/ISDR Integrated Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR) WMO Programme Management (THORPEX-EC, WMO Forum/PWS, CCl-OPAGs3/4…) Other Connections(IFRC, IAEM, Earth System Science Partnership, GEO, WHO, WTO, World Bank, NMHAs, industry organizations, IIASA, etc.)

  4. General observations • Costs are as important as benefits • Longitudinal analysis/perspective and comparison across social, institutional and cultural geography is critical • Value accrues in use (decision-action-consequence web) and is highly dependent on the context, situation and capacity of the individual, group or organization • Primary entry point should be through National Meteorological and Hydrometeorological Services (NMHS)

  5. Flows of information and potential benefits Mills (2011)

  6. Possible benefit areas REGIONAL EXTRA-REGIONAL • Residents and Indigenous communities • lives (safety/health/QOL) • livelihoods • culture • infrastructure • … • Resource development and use • energy, minerals, fisheries, water, transportation, tourism, R&D • environment • worker/visitor safety • … Safety, security, sovereignty, and environment Improved predictions in other regions

  7. SERA elements • Literature review to establish/confirm weather-related sensitivities/risks, benefit areas, and applications for decision-prediction scales (nowcasting through seasonal); social and economic research capacity evaluation (incl. gap analysis) • Past-present-future prediction and services perspectives (researchers-forecasters-primary users…) • define risks, opportunities, and decision problems • translation of skill improvements into products/services, costs and benefits • enabling factors • Traditional and local knowledge perspectives (?)

  8. Mining completed and on-going R&D • International Polar Year • ArcticNet (Canada - http://www.arcticnet.ulaval.ca/) • Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (http://www.acia.uaf.edu/) • Polar Communications and Weather satellite mission (Canada) • European, Asian, and Southern Hemisphere activities

  9. Mining completed and on-going R&D ArcticNet (2010)

  10. Important partners/endorsements • International Social Sciences Research Council (ISSC) (http://www.worldsocialscience.org/) • Arctic Council (http://www.arctic-council.org/index.php/en/) • Antarctic (?) • WMO (Public Weather Services), WCRP

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