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WWRP Polar Prediction Project – SERA Elements

WWRP Polar Prediction Project – SERA Elements. Brian Mills Adaptation and Impacts Research, Climate Research Division Environment Canada Faculty of Environment, University of Waterloo Waterloo, ON, Canada N2L 3G1 Brian.Mills@ec.gc.ca +1 519 888 4567 (ext. 35496) Chair, WMO-WWRP-SERA WG.

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WWRP Polar Prediction Project – SERA Elements

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  1. WWRP Polar Prediction Project – SERA Elements Brian Mills Adaptation and Impacts Research, Climate Research Division Environment Canada Faculty of Environment, University of Waterloo Waterloo, ON, Canada N2L 3G1 Brian.Mills@ec.gc.ca+1 519 888 4567 (ext. 35496) Chair, WMO-WWRP-SERA WG ArcticNet (2010) http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/weather_society.html

  2. Opening thoughts • Northern/Canadian bias (bi-polar?) • Limited time/thought thus far • Implementation will require a SERA sub-committee with one liaison to the Steering Group ACIA (2008:991)

  3. WWRP-SERA & Polar Prediction Project Research & Application Interest Groups WWRP Expert Liaison (THORPEX-TIGGE) Core Membership Projects, Demonstrations & Testbeds • social scientists • users • engagers WWRP Expert Liaison (Verification) WWRP Expert Liaison (Mesoscale Weather, THORPEX-RCs,etc.) ICSU/ISSC/ISDR Integrated Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR) WMO Programme Management (THORPEX-EC, WMO Forum/PWS, CCl-OPAGs3/4…) Other Connections(IFRC, IAEM, Earth System Science Partnership, GEO, WHO, WTO, World Bank, NMHAs, industry organizations, IIASA, etc.)

  4. General observations • Costs are as important as benefits • Longitudinal analysis/perspective and comparison across social, institutional and cultural geography is critical • Value accrues in use (decision-action-consequence web) and is highly dependent on the context, situation and capacity of the individual, group or organization • Primary entry point should be through National Meteorological and Hydrometeorological Services (NMHS)

  5. Flows of information and potential benefits Mills (2011)

  6. Possible benefit areas REGIONAL EXTRA-REGIONAL • Residents and Indigenous communities • lives (safety/health/QOL) • livelihoods • culture • infrastructure • … • Resource development and use • energy, minerals, fisheries, water, transportation, tourism, R&D • environment • worker/visitor safety • … Safety, security, sovereignty, and environment Improved predictions in other regions

  7. SERA elements • Literature review to establish/confirm weather-related sensitivities/risks, benefit areas, and applications for decision-prediction scales (nowcasting through seasonal); social and economic research capacity evaluation (incl. gap analysis) • Past-present-future prediction and services perspectives (researchers-forecasters-primary users…) • define risks, opportunities, and decision problems • translation of skill improvements into products/services, costs and benefits • enabling factors • Traditional and local knowledge perspectives (?)

  8. Mining completed and on-going R&D • International Polar Year • ArcticNet (Canada - http://www.arcticnet.ulaval.ca/) • Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (http://www.acia.uaf.edu/) • Polar Communications and Weather satellite mission (Canada) • European, Asian, and Southern Hemisphere activities

  9. Mining completed and on-going R&D ArcticNet (2010)

  10. Important partners/endorsements • International Social Sciences Research Council (ISSC) (http://www.worldsocialscience.org/) • Arctic Council (http://www.arctic-council.org/index.php/en/) • Antarctic (?) • WMO (Public Weather Services), WCRP

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