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Aviation User Training: TAF Interpretation and Supplemental Products

Aviation User Training: TAF Interpretation and Supplemental Products. Outline. TAF Basics TAF Definitions and Limitations TAF Interpretation-reading into the TAF Supplemental Products Links. TAF Issuance Times. 06z Monday – 00z Saturday. 00z Saturday - 06z Monday.

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Aviation User Training: TAF Interpretation and Supplemental Products

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  1. Aviation User Training: TAF Interpretation and Supplemental Products

  2. Outline • TAF Basics • TAF Definitions and Limitations • TAF Interpretation-reading into the TAF • Supplemental Products • Links

  3. TAF Issuance Times 06z Monday – 00z Saturday 00z Saturday - 06z Monday Every 3 hours starting at 00z Saturday Unscheduled AMD’s as needed 00, 06, 12, 18z issued 20-40 min prior Scheduled AMD’s issued around top of the hour • Every 2 hours starting at 06z Monday • Unscheduled AMD’s as needed • 00, 06, 12, 18z issued 20-40 min prior • Scheduled AMD’s issued around top of the hour

  4. TAFs • Forecast for conditions within 5SM of the center of an airport • Valid for 30 hrs at ORD and 24 hrs at MDW, RFD, DPA, GYY

  5. Definitions and limitations

  6. FM – From Groups • A new FM group indicates a significant change in prevailing conditions • >50% probability of conditions occurring

  7. TEMPO • >50% probability of occurrence and, • Last for 1 hour or less in each instance and, • Cover less than half the time period of the TEMPO group • May not last long or may be intermittent

  8. PROB30 • 30% chance of occurrence • Cannot be used in the first 9 hours of the valid TAF period

  9. VC – Vicinity • Donut shaped area between 5 and 10 SM from the center of the airport • Used when there is a >50% probability of occurrence within the donut and it is expected to occur more than half of the forecast time period • A prevailing condition in the 5-10 SM donut • VCTS, VCSH, VCFG

  10. CB • Appended to the cloud group (BKN030CB) • May be included without TS • Indicates TS is possible but: • It is NOT certain it will occur at the airport or in the vicinity

  11. Available Probabilities • >50% • <50% (if we don’t include something) • 30%...but only beyond the first 9 hours • Lots of room for interpretation!!

  12. TAF Challenges • Complex definitions • Rigid format with little room to convey specific uncertainty or confidence • However…there is more information available and there are ways to better utilize the TAF

  13. Getting the Most From the TAF TAF Interpretation

  14. The Trend is Your Friend • Look for trends within each TAF • Look for trends in successive TAFs (can you access earlier versions?) • Can indicate our confidence level in the forecast • Can establish if chances for occurrence are increasing or decreasing • Unscheduled amendments indicate a high degree of confidence in forecast changes

  15. Trends Within A TAF Indicates –TSRA may be developing SHRA/TSRA between 5 and 10 SM from the airfield TAF KORD 231740Z 2318/2424 15012KT P6SM SCT040CB FM232100 16012KT P6SM VCSH BKN040CB TEMPO 2322/2324 30024G50KT 1SM TSRA BKN030CB OVC050 FM240000 30010KT P6SM –SHRA BKN040CB FM240200 30010KT P6SM SCT040 >50% chance of occurrence <50% of the TEMPO period

  16. Trends Among Successive TAFs

  17. Accessing Previous TAFs http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/?n=aviation

  18. Additional Information: The Aviation Forecast Discussion

  19. Aviation AFD • Your window into the forecasters’ mind • Updated with every scheduled TAF issuance • Use side-by-side with the TAF • Specifically outlines concerns for ORD/MDW and provides level of forecast confidence • May also include alternative scenarios for lower confidence or lower probability situations

  20. Additional Information: Valuable Seasonal Products

  21. Warm Weather Tips • Four Product Approach • TAF • Aviation Forecast Discussion • Thunderstorm Tactical Decision Aids • CCFP

  22. Our Approach to Forecasting Thunder • What is the trigger (cold front, trough…)? • How much coverage should we expect with this type of trigger? • How long does TS usually last with this type of setup? • How confident are we that TS will occur? (what mitigating factors are there?) • What is the most likely time window for occurrence?

  23. Conveying Confidence • CB • can be used to indicate the presence of CB’s • hints at the possibility of TS • VCTS • prevailing TS in the 5-10 mile donut around the terminal • used when coverage is scattered/or storms skirting by and/or there is uncertainty that the terminal will be directly affected

  24. TS TDA • TS probability at key arrival and departure points • Does not show TS chances at the terminals or areas between the terminals and the gates • Frequently updated

  25. Alternate TS TDA

  26. CCFP • Designed for the en route environment; strategic planning of efficient routes • Too coarse for use in the terminal area • Can be used to help establish confidence in potential for TS occurrence in the general area near terminals

  27. Winter Weather Tips • Four Product Approach • TAF • Aviation Forecast Discussion • ORD Winter Precipitation Outlook • Winter Weather Headlines (watches/warnings/advisories)

  28. Experimental O’Hare Winter Precipitation Outlook • November 1-March 31 • 5 am, 11 am, 5 pm local time • No updates between issuances

  29. Winter Weather Headlines

  30. Links • Add latest links here

  31. Questions?? Scott Shelerud

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