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Forecaster-Over-The-Loop Demonstration

Forecaster-Over-The-Loop Demonstration. Auto-nowcaster. CWSU. Goals: Science and Operational Debrief NWS Program Review. Forecaster. Auto-nowcaster. Rita Roberts 28 November 2007. 2006-2007. Forecaster selects synoptic regimes for Auto-nowcaster and products sent to CWSU.

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Forecaster-Over-The-Loop Demonstration

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  1. Forecaster-Over-The-Loop Demonstration Auto-nowcaster CWSU Goals: Science and Operational Debrief NWS Program Review Forecaster Auto-nowcaster Rita Roberts 28 November 2007

  2. 2006-2007 Forecaster selects synoptic regimes for Auto-nowcaster and products sent to CWSU. 2007-2008 2004-2005 Short term probabilistic forecasts sent to CWSU for use in graphical aviation display. Forecaster provides input into Auto-nowcaster system; e.g. convergence lines. 0-30% Coverage = Green 30-60% Coverage Marginal = Yellow 60-100% coverage Impacted = Red Forecaster-Over-The-Loop DemonstrationDallas/Ft. Worth WFO • Funded by the NWS Aviation Branch, forecasters assist in overseeing and improving rapidly updated thunderstorm Auto-nowcaster products sent to the CWSU. Convergence lines Thunderstorm Forecasts for Airport Arrival Gates Slide 2

  3. Thunderstorm Nowcasting System “Auto-Nowcaster” Radar “Cumulus” Echoes Convergence Boundaries Likelihood fields are summed, thresholded and contoured Combining Predictor (Likelihood) Fields Using Fuzzy Logic To Produce Thunderstorm Initiation Nowcasts Likelihood Fields Forecast verification to produce final forecast Slide 3

  4. Ultimate Impact of Human-Inserted Boundaries on Auto-nowcaster Storm Initiation Likelihood Field Human has inserted a moving boundary that is ingested into upstream algorithms • 5 min later impact of human-entered boundary: • interest is increased near boundary • reddish areas are where new storms are • expected in 60 min No Human Interaction. Low interest values-no storms likely. Slide 4

  5. Forecaster Interaction Storm initiation likelihood fields for differentsynoptic regimes Dry Line Regime Air Mass Regime Forecaster-entered convergence boundaries using regional radar data -Currently on CIDD; soon on AWIPS Slide 5

  6. Before & After Nudge Polygon and Nudging Tool-for adjustment of thunderstorm likelihood intensities Slide 6

  7. NWS/NCAR 3 Year ContractYear 1(1 Aug 2006-1 Aug 2007)$150K + $35K At DFW: • Continue to run ANC system at DFW. • Upgrades to ANC based on 2006 forecaster (Fano, Patrick) feedback. • ANC nowcast fields and forecaster tools (boundary/polygon) accessed within AWIPS; data flow between AWIPS and ANC(Albo, Ba) • ANC playback simulator (workstation) installed at DFW for forecaster training(Megenhardt) • Products sent to CWSU via a dedicated web page. At NCAR: • NCAR provides summary report of 2006 ANC/Forecaster performance (Roberts et al) • NCAR works on refining existing regimes (Nelson) • NCAR begins work on an elevated regime for ANC (Cai) • NCAR begins conversion of deterministic nowcasts to probabilistic (requested, but did not receive supplemental funding) Slide 7

  8. Agenda • 1. Summary of 2007 related activities for each group (WFO, CWSU, NCAR, MDL) • 9:15CST: Introductory comments (Rita Roberts) • 9:30 CST: MDL plan and objective (Steve Smith) • 9:45 CST: NWS Aviation expectation (Curt and Cyndie) • 10:00 CST: WFO feedback for 2007 operations (Greg and Steve Fano) • 10:15 CST: Feedback from CWSU of the use of ANC product • 10:30 CST: Break • 10:45 CST: AWIPS-ANC interface Demo (Steve Fano, Ama) • 11:30 CST: Highlights of 2007 and forecaster interaction with the ANC - Eric Nelson11:45 CST: 2007 Engineering efforts - Dan Megenhardt • 12:00: CST Statistical results from the 2006 Forecaster-over-the-loop demo – Rita • 12:15: CST Break (Lunch, ordering in) • 2. Discussion of transfer CIDD capabilities to AWIPS • 1:15 CST: Summary of NCAR activities - Dave Albo • 1:30 CST: Summary of MDL activities – Ama Ba • 3. Goals for 2008 demonstration1:45CST Statement of Work - Rita2:00CST Evaluation of ANC synoptic regimes - Eric Nelson2:15CST Probabilistic ANC nowcasts - Dave Albo2:30CST Implementing a larger ANC domain- Dan Megenhardt • 2:45 CST: AWIPS Prototyping (MDL, NCAR, Aviation) • Discussion of AWIPS prototyping for 2008 (MDL, NCAR, Aviation) • Discussion of estimates of ANC implementation on AWIPS • Funding of NCAR by aviation for 2009 and beyond • 3:30 CST: Wrap up/adjourn Slide 8

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