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Implications of Census Data presentation to NEPCO 14 May 2011

Implications of Census Data presentation to NEPCO 14 May 2011. Bruce Fogarty, Vice Chairman Pikes Peak Area Complete Count Committee bfogarty@skybeam.com / 719-685-1884. Mission of the PPACCC.

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Implications of Census Data presentation to NEPCO 14 May 2011

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  1. Implications of Census Datapresentation to NEPCO14 May 2011 Bruce Fogarty, Vice Chairman Pikes Peak Area Complete Count Committee bfogarty@skybeam.com / 719-685-1884

  2. Mission of the PPACCC • Mission – Conduct a Census 2010 awareness campaign in El Paso and Teller Counties, in partnership with Census Bureau * • Goals: • Improve mail questionnaire response rate of households from 72% in 2000 to at least 82% • It costs $57-$80/household to chase them for answers; about $3 million in Colorado Springs MSA* in Census 2010 • Missed persons cost state and local governments money • Insure everyone is counted timely and counted accurately • Minimize cost of the Census (by minimizing need for site visits to households not returning questionnaire) • Chairman of PPACCC: JD Dallagher, CEO of Pikes Peak United Way * El Paso and Teller Counties comprise the Colorado Springs Metropolitan Statistical Area, an important designation of the US Office of Management and Budget, affecting many Federal programs. Pikes Peak Area Complete Count Committee

  3. But … NEPCO wants to know about implications of Census data, so … here is our agenda for today • A primer on Census geography and where NEPCO fits in • How well NEPCO and Colorado Springs area did in participating in Census 2010 • An introduction to “Census data”—it’s not just Census 2010 • Implications of Census data • At the national level • At the state level • At the local, especially NEPCO and El Paso County levels • NOTE: There are mountains of data available. The key is to be aware of it and how to find it. • Some local (Colorado Springs MSA, NEPCO area) facts • Final thoughts on implications and Questions Pikes Peak Area Complete Count Committee

  4. First, a few comments on today’s presentation • Quotations: • “A statistician is someone who is good with numbers, but doesn’t have the personality of an accountant.” – Source unknown • “Who the hell wants to hear actors [demographers] talking?” – Harry M. Warner (Warner Bros., 1927) – Interruptions and questions are welcome during the talk. • “As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.” – Benjamin Disraeli ♦ “It also helps if he can find it.” – anonymous • The Internet has revolutionized access to Census information. Prior to Census 2000, the US Census publications were the most widely held books in libraries around the world. Today it’s “easy” to access and free. • The data collected by the US Census Bureau is ultimately determined by US Congress and used to affect Federal policy and funding decisions. The data also guide much the same at the state and local governmental levels. • At the non-governmental level, it is ultimately up to decision makers to use data/facts to make decisions; i.e., to draw implications from the data. Pikes Peak Area Complete Count Committee

  5. Census geography, from Block to State The nested hierarchy of Census geography • State of Colorado • El Paso County (one of 64 in Colorado) • Census Tracts in El Paso County • Census BlockGroups in Census Tracts • Census Blocks in Census Block Groups (201,062 Census Blocks in El Paso County in Census 2010) • A Census Tract is designed by local government and Census officials to be reasonably homogeneous with clear, visible boundaries. They are quite stable over time. Pikes Peak Area Complete Count Committee

  6. Census geography, from Block to State (cont.) Other Census geography • Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA’s) • Defined by US Office of Management and Budget • County-based • Counties with strong economic and transportation/commuting links • Minimum population = 50,000 • Heavily influences funding in several federal government programs, esp. transportation • Colorado Springs MSA (El Paso and Teller Counties) • Public school districts • ZIP Codes • Reported as “ZIP Code Tabulation Areas” (ZCTA’s)  ZIP Codes • ZIP Codes do not have fixed boundaries and are not “stable” over time Pikes Peak Area Complete Count Committee

  7. NEPCO area Placeholder slide: Show NEPCO geographies here. NEPCO area by Census Tract: West of I-25 = Tract 37.01 East of I-25 to CO 83: • County line to CO 105 = Tract 74 • Between CO 105 and Baptist Road = Tract 73 • South of Baptist Road = Tract 72 in Census 2000* and Tract 72.02 in Census 2010 * NOTE: In 2000, Tract 72 extended south of North Gate Rd. (and west of CO 83) to Briargate Pkwy. In 2010 the southern boundary of Tract 72.02 is North Gate Rd. 74 37.01 73 72* (72.02) Pikes Peak Area Complete Count Committee

  8. Types of “Census data” • Censuses and surveys (by US Census Bureau) • Censuses count everyone, every organization. • Surveys count a carefully drawn, representative sample of everyone, every organization. • For both censuses and surveys, participation is required by federal law. • Census Bureau conducts surveys on behalf of other federal agencies; e.g., US Bureau of Labor Statistics. • Decennial Census of Population and Housing (the “Census”) • Conducted since 1790 once every 10 years (e.g., Census 2010) • In US Constitution (Article I, Section 2) • Asks only 5 questions (age, sex, race, Hispanic origin, housing owned or rented) • Data reported down to Census Block level Pikes Peak Area Complete Count Committee

  9. Participation in Census 2010 by NEPCO area • Mail participation rate: • Definition: Number of households mailing back Census 2010 questionnaire who received Census questionnaire in the mail (as all households should have in NEPCO area) • US Postal Service was supposed to inform Census Bureau if it knew housing unit was vacant. • Final data on this topic is the “Mail Return Rate,” which updates denominator (final determination of whether or not housing unit was occupied). Mail return rate data is not available as of this presentation. Pikes Peak Area Complete Count Committee

  10. Types of “Census data” (cont.) • American Community Survey (ACS) • Conducted since 2001; replaced “long form” in Decennial Census • Conducted monthly; one in every 480 households • 48 demographic questions and 21 housing questions (in 2011 version) • Data reported down to Census Block Group or Census Tract level • Current Population Survey (CPS) • Conducted monthly • Some months have special “supplemental” surveys (March is a key month) • Primary source of unemployment and income data • Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) • Conducted monthly • Covers economic mobility • Income sources and amounts • Measures effectiveness of state and federal programs (e.g., Food Stamps) Pikes Peak Area Complete Count Committee

  11. Types of “Census data” (cont.) • Non-demographic surveys of local interest • Government Censuses and Surveys • Census conducted for years ending 2 and 7; e.g., 2007 • Surveys conducted all years • Example: State and local government finances • Economic Censuses and Surveys • Census conducted for years ending 2 and 7; e.g., 2007 • Surveys conducted all years • Examples: Retail trade, Construction • NOTE: Nowadays, all Census data is readily available on the Internet. Click on www.census.gov. When you ask about the “implications of Census data,” be careful what you ask for! Today we’re focusing on sociodemographic data. Pikes Peak Area Complete Count Committee

  12. Implications of Census data • National level • Decennial Census’ main affect is on apportionment of seats in US House of Representatives • In 2010, Colorado remained at 7 districts • In 2020, if all states grow exactly as they did from 2010, Colorado will get the very last seat assigned, resulting in an 8th district • Census Bureau issues several reports about sociodemographic trends, based on data from Decennial Census and other surveys. Some examples: • Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage • Fertility of American Women • America’s Families and Living Arrangements • School Enrollment in the United States Pikes Peak Area Complete Count Committee

  13. Implications of Census data (cont.) An example from “Income, Poverty …” 2009 report Highest quintile (top 20%) earn 50.3% of income. Gini index: Mexico – 48.2 Ecuador – 46.9 U.S. – 46.8 Philippines – 45.8 Jamaica – 45.5 Iran – 44.5 (0 = everyone has same income; 100 = only one has all income) Pikes Peak Area Complete Count Committee

  14. Note this! Implications of Census data (cont.) An example from “… Families and Living Arrangements,” 2007 report In 1950, 93% of families withchildren were married couple families. In 2007, 71% were. In 2010, 32.9% of all households were not “family” households, meaning they didn’t have two or more people living in the household who were related by birth, marriage, or adoption. Pikes Peak Area Complete Count Committee

  15. Implications of Census data (cont.) • State level • Redistricting of state legislative bodies • Colorado and the Lucas vs. Fourth-forth General Assembly case • Colorado constitution and the statistical sampling issue • Allocation of Federal funds to Colorado (almost all allocated locally) • In Federal fiscal year 2008, Colorado received $4.4 billion, or $890 per person. Examples: • $545 million in highway planning and construction • $267 million in rural broadband access • $71 million in State Children’s Insurance Program (CHIP) • State government planning (at all levels) • Local level • County and city redistricting • El Paso County districts on W and S get geographically larger and on N and E get smaller • Allocation of Federal funds; about $307-$431 million in El Paso County in 2008 • Local government planning; examples: • Transportation • Area Agency on Aging • Schools; e.g., Title 1 • Health and Human Services Implication: Many funding grants require use of Census data, but even those that don’t can make good use of Census data. Pikes Peak Area Complete Count Committee

  16. Implications of Census data (cont.); But first a word from our sponsor … • Census 2010 data • Redistricting data (Public Law 94-171) – all data released • Race and Hispanic origin, by total population and 18 and older (voting age) population • Down to Census Block for entire US • Demographic Profile Summary data • Sex, age, household type and relationship, housing occupancy, housing tenure • Available for most states, DC, and Puerto Rico as of 13 May, including Colorado – But for few geographic levels below state (not even county) • Summary File data • All Census 2010 data tables • Summary File 1 released June-August 2011 (general tables) • Summary File 2 released December 2011 – April 2010 (race and ethnicity tables) • American Community Survey data • 100’s of tables available • For Census Block Group and larger geographies, 2005-2009 data released in December 2010. This is the latest (and so far only) 5-year ACS dataset. • For areas of 20,000 or more: 3-year ACS data; latest is 2007-2009 (2008-2010 data in January 2012) • For areas of 65,000 or more: 1-year ACS data; latest is 2009 (2010 data in Oct. 2011) Pikes Peak Area Complete Count Committee

  17. Census data; Colorado Springs – Median Annual Earnings of Full-Time Workers, by Occupation Pikes Peak Area Complete Count Committee

  18. Census data; Colorado Springs – Median Annual Earnings of Full-Time Workers, by Occupation (cont.) Pikes Peak Area Complete Count Committee

  19. Census 2000 and 2010 data:Change in Population in NEPCO Area NOTE: The raw data has 71 categories of race, including combinations of up to six races Pikes Peak Area Complete Count Committee

  20. Census 2000 and ACS 2005-2009 data:Change in Demographics in NECPO Area, 2000 – 2005,9; Ex. 1 Pikes Peak Area Complete Count Committee

  21. Census 2000 and ACS 2005-2009 data:Change in Demographics in NECPO Area, 2000 – 2005,9; Ex. 2 Pikes Peak Area Complete Count Committee

  22. Census 2000 and ACS 2005-2009 data:Tables available today for NEPCO area This is a sample of a few hundred possible tables available. Pikes Peak Area Complete Count Committee

  23. Common ways to access Census data on the Internet Most users: American FactFinder for data fromCensus 2010(beginning in February 2011)and Census 2000go tofactfinder2.census.gov Learn more about the New American FactFinder For information about the release of data from the 2010 Census, see the 2010 Census Data Productsrelease schedule My favorite: Data Ferrett http://dataferrett.census.gov/run.html Pikes Peak Area Complete Count Committee

  24. A few final thoughts on implications of Census data • There is way too much data to search through looking for implications. Much better: Have a question and get data to “answer.” • The facts are there, they’re free, and they’re current! This IS the information age. • For general demographic trends, see Current Population Reports. • B-to-C (Business to Consumer) companies pay attention to their demographics. It’s not just something for government to use. • The tricky bits … • Have to know Census geography; maps not readily available • Several ways to get at data via the Internet; nothing in print for “small” areas (below county) • Need to understand how data organized and what datasets are available • Drawing insights still can be tough; takes experience • Help (and data!) available from State Demographer’s Office (as well as Census Bureau): http://dola.colorado.gov/demog/ Pikes Peak Area Complete Count Committee

  25. Questions • Questions? Like … • A customer is suing my company because she was stopped for suspected shoplifting. She says it was due to “racial profiling.” How can the company prove it wasn’t discriminatory? • Everyone knows Hispanics are the now the largest minority group. How do their buying habits differ from non-Hispanics. “Where” are they and how much trouble will my business be in if I don’t have bilingual associates? • What are YOUR questions? • How can I (and the PPACCC) help you? Pikes Peak Area Complete Count Committee

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