Wichita 2008 Review 2009 Forecast Rob Allison, Interim Director Center for Economic Development and Business Research W.

1. Wichita 2008 Review 2009 Forecast Rob Allison, Interim Director Center for Economic Development and Business Research W. Frank Barton School of Business Wichita State University October 7, 2008

2. Center for Economic Development and Business Research Slides are available for all of today’s presentations under the 2008 Economic Outlook Conference link.

3. National versus Wichita MSA Disconnect?

4. National Economic Landscape Topics include: • Economic growth • Inflation • Housing & construction • Manufacturing • Financial situation Wichita employment forecast for 2009 by industry sector.

5. National Economic Landscape Topics include: • Economic growth • Inflation • Housing & construction • Manufacturing • Financial situation Wichita employment forecast for 2009 by industry sector.

6. U.S. Economy Advances at a Sluggish Pace U.S. Gross Domestic Product Percent Change (Real 2000$) Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Recession

8. Wichita Area Outlook Team Sufficient liquidity for business activities Appropriately tightening credit standards

9. Consumer Price Index July 2008 Year-over-Year Percent Change Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

10. Import Price Index and Producer Price Index Commodity Data Import Price Index Index Value Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

11. WSU Current Conditions Index Data Source: CEDBR, Wichita State University

12. WSU Leading Economic Indicators Index Data Source: CEDBR, Wichita State University

13. Personal Per Capita Income Growth Wichita Personal Per Capita Income as a Percent of U.S. Wichita, $39,210 United State $38,564 Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

14. Total All JobsWage and Salary Employment

15. Labor Market Forecast 2009 Employment: • Up 2.0% or • 6,095 jobs

16. Employment Industry Sectors 2,850 565 2,250 430 6,095 I. Production II. Trade, Transportation, Utilities III. Service IV. Government

17. Wichita MSA Employment and Earningsby Industry Sector, 2007 Earnings Employment Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

18. Employment Industry Sectors I. Production Natural Resources, Mining, Construction Manufacturing II. Trade, Transportation and Utilities III. Service IV. Government

19. Wichita’s Housing Market Has Avoided Many Housing Bubble Problems Inventory of Existing Homes Available for Sale* Months Supply Data Source: National Association of Realtors; South Central Kansas MLS * Ratio of active new home listings to new home sales, seasonally adjusted

20. Consistent Appreciation in Home Values Data Source: Wichita State University, Center For Real Estate, 2009 Wichita Housing Market Forecast * Year-over-year percentage change as measured using 4th quarter values

21. Construction Projects • INTRUST Arena • WaterWalk • Cessna • Spirit • Sumner County casino • Via Christi hospital in west Wichita • Parkstone

22. Natural Resources, Mining and ConstructionWage and Salary Employment

23. Natural Resources, Mining and Construction Forecast 2009 Employment: Up 2.7% or • 450 jobs

24. Employment Industry Sectors I. Production Natural Resources, Mining, Construction Manufacturing Durable Goods Non-Durable Goods II. Trade, Transportation and Utilities III. Service IV. Government

25. Worldwide Deliveries in 2007 Best Since 1981 4,272 Deliveries in 2007 Recession Data Source: General Aviation Manufacturing Association

26. U.S. Air Carrier Traffic StatisticsRevenue Passenger Ton-Miles Revenue Passenger Ton-Miles in Billions Recession Data Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Research and Innovative Technology Administration, Airline Data and Statistics, Annual Air Carrier Traffic Statistics

27. Durable Goods ManufacturingWage and Salary Employment

28. Durable Goods Manufacturing Forecast 2009 Employment: • Up 4.3% or 2,500 jobs

29. Non-Durable Goods ManufacturingWage and Salary Employment

30. Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing Forecast 2009 Employment: Down -1.2% or • -100 jobs

31. Employment Industry Sectors I. Production II. Trade, Transportation and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation , Warehousing, Utilities III. Service IV. Government

32. Wholesale TradeWage and Salary Employment

33. Wholesale TradeForecast 2009 Employment: Up 1.8% or • 200 jobs

34. Retail TradeWage and Salary Employment

35. Retail TradeForecast 2009 Employment: Up 0.8% or • 250 jobs

36. Taxable Retail Sales(billions $)

37. Inflation Adjusted Taxable Retail Sales (billions $)

38. Transportation and UtilitiesWage and Salary Employment

39. Transportation and UtilitiesForecast 2009 Employment: Up 1.4% or • 115 jobs

40. Employment Industry Sectors I. Production II. Trade, Transportation and Utilities III. Service Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services IV. Government

41. InformationWage and Salary Employment

42. Information Forecast 2009 Employment: Down -0.8% or • -50 jobs

43. Financial ServicesWage and Salary Employment

44. Financial ServicesForecast 2009 Employment: Up 0.9% or • 100 jobs

45. Professional and Business ServicesWage and Salary Employment

46. Professional and Business ServicesForecast 2009 Employment: • Up 3.4% or 1,025 jobs

47. Education and Health Care ServicesWage and Salary Employment

48. Education and Health Care ServicesForecast 2009 Employment: • Up 1.6% or 700 jobs

49. Health practitioners’ vacancies

50. Leisure and Hospitality ServicesWage and Salary Employment