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Highlights of Monday's Aviation Workshop: Mapping the Way Ahead

Highlights of Monday's Aviation Workshop: Mapping the Way Ahead. Joe Kunches NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SWPC Boulder, Colorado. 2008 Space Weather Workshop April 29 Boulder. Session Overview. High Points Programmatics Radiation and Forecast Challenges

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Highlights of Monday's Aviation Workshop: Mapping the Way Ahead

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  1. Highlights of Monday's Aviation Workshop: Mapping the Way Ahead Joe Kunches NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SWPC Boulder, Colorado 2008 Space Weather Workshop April 29 Boulder

  2. Session Overview • High Points • Programmatics • Radiation and Forecast Challenges • Airlines (Polar routes are hot!, Cross Polar Working Group, AMS Policy Study, Education) • Panels • Airline operations issues • New services from modelers, SWPC, and Commercial Interests

  3. Programmatics • World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Initiative • Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) NextGen • Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) • Alaska Region Collaboration Team (ARCTic)

  4. World Meteorological Organization • Formal recognition of space weather • Uses existing ISES relationships • Dovetails to WMO Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM) • On Executive Council agenda for June 2008

  5. Significance of WMO Invitation • Provides overarching legitimacy of space weather activities • For aviation that links to: • International Civil Aviation Organization (183 States) • International Air Transport Association (240 Airlines) • FAA • Cross Polar Working Group

  6. Space Weather Radiation Hazards Aviation Workshop By Ron Zwickl NOAA/SWPC April 28, 2008

  7. FRA to DFW flight

  8. mSv 100000 10000 1000 100 10 1 0.1 Two major radiation risks in exploratory missions CNS syndrome Skin desquamation GI syndrome Fibrosis • SPE: sporadic, high dose. Shielding generally effective. Acute (deterministic) effects • GCR: chronic, low dose. Shielding poorly effective. Late (stochastic) effects Haematopoietic syndrome Vomiting Nausea Lymphopenia Azoospermia Annual dose in Kerala (India) Annual dose limit for radiation workers CT abdomen/pelvis Annual dose on Earth Daily dose in LEO Pelvis X-ray film Annual cosmic rays at sea level Dr. Durante 4th European SWW Bruxelles, Belgium, Nov 9, 2007 Chest X-ray film

  9. Aviation Workshop Boulder, Colorado, April 28 2008 Radiation storm prediction – the challenges facing forecasters • Radiation Storms • Proton Event Statistics • Forecasting Challenges (and Successes!)

  10. Radiation storms are infrequent during the solar minimum years but large • storms can occur during these minimum years The Large >100 MeV Events (in pfu) 14 Jul 2000 410 28 Oct 2003 186 08 Nov 2000 347 29 Oct 2003 110 15 Apr 2001 146 20 Jan 2005 652 04 Nov 2001 253

  11. CPTEWG Space Weather Sub-Group:Defining Aviation Industry User Requirements Mike StillsCaptain Bryn JonesJoe Kunches United Airlines SolarMetrics Limited, UK Space Weather Services Branch NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder, Colorado, USA Cross Polar Trans East ATM Providers’ Working Group AA System Operations Control Centre Dallas, Texas April 1–3, 2008

  12. Content • Polar Route Popularity - A Great Place to Go!! • Cross Polar Working Group (CPWG) Activities • AMS and SolarMetrics Aviation Policy Study – Implementation • Education Needs?

  13. Polar Route Popularity – Some Statistics

  14. Aviation User Requirements – work plan • Defining user requirements • Define & prioritise the impacts/hazards • Discuss operational decision-processes for each hazard • Draught Service/Product Wish Lists (Forecasting, Nowcasting, Warnings, Alerts, etc) • Communicating Space Weather information • Delivery methods • Formatting and integration with Terrestrial Weather Products (NextGen, SESAR) • Product Training

  15. Airline Operations Panel • Bryn Jones (moderator), Mike Holland, Henning Luebbe, Joel Morin, Mike Stills

  16. Aviation User Requirements • Current Polar-Ops route scenario chosen • NextGen (SESAR) consideration • Impact based – i.e., user viewpoint, not science focused • HF Comms • Radiation (Avionics, Humans) • GPS / Navigation

  17. Operations Key Points • In flight measurements necessary to quantify radiation • Do take action based on forecasts • Pilot reports helpful for validation of models • Paradox: New technologies allow efficiencies but vulnerable to SpWx • Comm/Nav highest priorities • “Don’t get too hung upon Solar Max – there are plenty of disruptions now!”

  18. New Services Panel • Kent Tobiska (moderator), Herb Sauer, Steve Hill, Chris Mertens

  19. New Services Key Points • NAIRAS funded, work to get global radiation field (Mertens) • Geographic and day/night differences in HF/VHF effects (Sauer) • SWPC reorg to get more products and services – D-Region Test Product soon (Hill)

  20. NAIRAS Integrated System Solution Earth-Sun System & Planetary Models Radiation Dose Rates: AIR,HZETRN,MESTRN Near-Earth/Space Environment: Badhwar/ONeill-GCR,CMIT, LFM,SEP-trajectory,IGRF+ T96 magnetic field Decision Support Tools NAIRAS Assessment: Real-time, global, atmospheric Ionizing radiation dose rates Track and archive radiation exposure levels at commercial airline altitudes Enter flight path data to track/archive individual crewmember radiation exposure levels Provide accumulated radiation exposure levels from “phantom” pilots with typical flight schedules and representative flight paths Value & Benefits Real-time monitor of biologically harmful atmospheric radiation Provide FAA/aviation industry valuable data for developing policies and procedure for modifying aircrew travel schedules to limit radiation exposures Provide critical data for airline policy/management decisions for flight rerouting during solar storm events Provide health sector (e.g., NIOSH) with data to improve policies for radiation exposure limits Predictions/ Nowcast/Forecast • Nowcast • Predictions • Forecasts • Model products • Computational Techniques • Visualizations • Interoperability standards • Observations • Geophysical parameters Data Earth-Sun Observations Near-Earth+Space Environment: NASA/ACE/HEAO-3 NOAA/GOES Assimilated Atmospheric: Atmospheric Depth (METO) Ground-based: Neutron Count Monitors Observations ROSES 2005 - A.24

  21. South Polar PresentationJune 21, 2000 00:00 UT Kp= 3Scale indicates frequency at which the absorption reaches 10dB indicating severe degradation to complete blackout

  22. The Plan • Summer 2008 – Deploy Release 2 as an NWS Enhanced Product • Fall ‘08 through Spring ’09 – Test period to collect customer input and suggestions • Summer ’09 – Deploy as an operational NWS product, or incorporate user suggested changes and deploy for reevaluation Contact Information: Dr. Steven M Hill Development and Transition Section Lead NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center 325 Broadway Boulder, CO 80305 303-497-3283 steven.hill@noaa.gov

  23. New Product Announcement • Space Environment Technologies, IPS MeteoStar, Space Environment Corporation, and Air Force Research Laboratory, with assistance from NASA, to unveil a new product for commercial aviation tomorrow at this meeting. Watch for it!

  24. parting shot … Kanzelhoehe Solar Observatory, Austria December 1, 2000

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