1 / 70

Birth control, death control and the demographic transition

Explore the shift in global population dynamics and the consequences of an aging population. Learn about the importance of birth control, death control, and the demographic transition.

dsears
Download Presentation

Birth control, death control and the demographic transition

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Birth control, death controland the demographic transition CHRISTOPHER DYE

  2. Birth control, death controland the demographic transition CHRISTOPHER DYE We're getting older How did it happen? What are the consequences? What should we do?

  3. Not true: More people are alive today than have ever died True: Two thirds of all people who have made it to 65 in the history of mankind are alive today "Behind every human being now living stand thirty ghosts" 2001: A Space Odyssey, Arthur C. Clarke and Stanley Kubrick

  4. RAY KURZWEIL Who knows? (but beware the prophets of immortality) "I think the first person to live to 1000 might be 60 already" Aubrey de Grey AUBREY DE GREY

  5. The demographic transition Europe since 1500

  6. Demographic transition 60 mature post pre-modern industrializing industrial industrial 50 40 Births Birth or death rate per 1000 per yr Population 30 20 Deaths 10 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Years

  7. Births and deaths in England since 1540 45 40 rate per 1000 35 30 25 death 20 or 15 Birth Source: Wrigley & Schofield 1981 10 1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

  8. Industrial (r)evolution, health (r)evolution Life expectancy in England 1300-2000 80 Wrigley & Schofield Human Mortality Database 70 Clark 60 50 Life expectancy at birth (years) 40 30 20 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000

  9. Risk of death in pregnancy falling by 1700 in England

  10. 1840

  11. 1850

  12. 1860

  13. 1870

  14. 1880

  15. 1890

  16. 1900

  17. 1910

  18. 1920

  19. 1930

  20. 1940

  21. 1950

  22. 1960

  23. 1970

  24. 1980

  25. 1990

  26. 2000

  27. 2004

  28. The coming face of Germany Population "pyramids" in 1910, 2005, and 2025 Few men – war dead Fall births Post WW2 baby boom Long-term fertility decline JW Vaupel, Science (2006)

  29. News - World's oldest woman dies at 115 She was officially proclaimed the world's oldestwoman, and the second oldest person, after the death of American Elizabeth Bolden in December.19 Jan 2007 News - 'Oldest' woman dies at age of 111 She shared her birthday with Britain's oldest man, Henry Allingham, who turned 110 in June. The oldest person in the world is 116-year-old Elizabeth Bolden, of Memphis, Tennessee.29 Nov 2006 News - World's oldest woman dies at 116 Capovilla's likely successor as oldestwoman is an American, Elizabeth Bolden of Memphis, Tennessee, said Mr Young.28 Aug 2006 News - UK's oldest woman dies aged 111 She became the country's oldest person on 1 March this year when 112-year-old Judy Ingamells died.2 Aug 2006 News - Birthday 111 for 'oldest' woman A woman believed to be Scotland's oldest person reaches her 111th birthday in Aberdeen.. 6 Jun 2006

  30. Jane Fonda My Life So Far (aged 69) James McNeill Whistler Arrangement in Grey and Black: Portrait of the Artist's mother 1871 (aged 67)

  31. Pyramids and totem polesDeveloping countries emerging from the pre-modern era

  32. Pyramids and….Young Population in Developing Countries Has Great Potential for Growth Population by age and sex, less developed countries, 2005 Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (2005).

  33. …Totem polesDeveloped Countries Have Fewer Young and More Elderly People Population by age and sex, more developed countries, 2005 Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (2005).

  34. Demographic Transition in Sweden and Mexico Births/Deaths per 1,000 60 Mexico Birth Rate 50 Sweden Birth Rate 40 30 20 Sweden Death Rate 10 Mexico Death Rate 0 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

  35. Which means that…. Country Growth Doubling time 1.3%/year 50 years 3.5%/year 20 years

  36. World population 1500

  37. World population 2000

  38. Births 2000

  39. Teenage mothers 2000

  40. The demographic division andthe future of world population

  41. Nine billion people by 2050? 12 World population 10 6 billion by 2000 8 Population (billions) 6 Less developed less developed countries 4 More developed more developed countries 2 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

  42. Populations which are either… Small but elderly…. …or youthful but large

  43. Developing countries: the argument for "family planning"= reducing fertility • Better health and release from poverty • Rights for women (control of fertility) • Protected environment

  44. Pakistan 2005 and 2050Today’s Youth, Tomorrow’s Labour Force Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, CD-ROM Edition, Extended Dataset (2005).

  45. "Demographic dividends" and "economic miracles" From health to wealth? 0.75 education public health economics family planning 0.7 governance East Asia 0.65 One third economic growth from "demographic gift" Share population of working age 0.6 0.55 Sub-Saharan Africa 0.5 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

More Related