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Long-term economic plans

Long-term economic plans. John Gourd Chairman. Current Picture (1). Our economy is growing again GVA grew by 0.6% to 3.9% over 2012-2013 6 th highest growth across 39 LEPs Hertfordshire is now a £30.4bn economy Fifth largest upper tier economy outside London Back towards full employment

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Long-term economic plans

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  1. Long-term economic plans John Gourd Chairman

  2. Current Picture (1) Our economy is growing again GVA grew by 0.6% to 3.9% over 2012-2013 6th highest growth across 39 LEPs Hertfordshire is now a £30.4bn economy Fifth largest upper tier economy outside London Back towards full employment Workforce of 600,000 Lowest level claiming JSA since 2008 2014 Unemployment rate at 4.6% (UK 7.6%) Still wide sub-county variances

  3. Current Picture (2) Growingbusiness population Circa 50,000 businesses During the recession the county lost over 1,000 SMEs From 2012-14 and increase of 3,630 businesses (net). Average business size is increasing Signs of overheating? House prices rose by 13.2% (UK average 7.6% ) Skills shortages emerging Lack of suitable employment sites

  4. The SEP - smart growth Key Principles: Anchoring/growing high value sectors, jobs and skills in the county Unblocking connectivity constraints Being clear on what growth and where (jobs and homes) Working across boundaries where it adds value

  5. Global excellence in science, technology & creativity

  6. Key Drivers - Innovation Strengths Weaknesses Public R&D investment Corporate R&D dominated by a single sector – Life Sciences Below average concentrations of product and process innovators Publication of scientific papers & research • High levels of corporate R&D • High concentrations of Knowledge Intensive Business • Large professional, scientific & technical services sector • High levels of University/Business collaboration

  7. Key Drivers - Enterprise Strengths Weaknesses Slower to grow £1m+ turnover businesses High than avg micros (<10 employees) Below average presence in non-micro SME 90% SMEs don’t make it to 10th birthday • Large SME base • Above average start-up rates • Total number of SME’s lost since the recession have been replaced • High rates of private sector jobs growth

  8. Key Drivers - Infrastructure • No major infrastructure projects on local highways network planned beyond 2019 to meet growth impacts. Poor East-West routes • Employment floorspace being lost to residential – through permitted development and planning applications. • The lowest level of new house building in the last two years in Hertfordshire. • Housing affordability and link to availability of workforce/ability to attract and retain staff

  9. Growth is complicated… INSERT MAP FROM GAF

  10. Delivering success through new Growth Areas

  11. Conclusions • Our economy will grow, regardless of public intervention – we can help shape it or accept the consequences • We have a high value, diverse, complex economy that is a net contributor to UK plc – we need to work hard to keep it that way • There isn’t a simple linear path for growth – each area is different and requires a different roadmap • We need to shift the perception of Hertfordshire from ‘no growth’ to ‘smart growth’

  12. We have been here before…

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